With over 130 days left until the U.S. election, President Biden and former President Trump are set to participate in the first televised debate for the 2024 presidential election in Atlanta at 9 p.m. on Thursday, June 27th.
This debate is the earliest in history, providing both candidates an opportunity to shake up the campaign landscape.
Unlike televised debates in the past 64 years, Thursday’s presidential debate breaks conventions in many aspects, from the moderators to the timing. CNN will host this televised debate.
During the debate, Biden and Trump will each have a pen, a piece of paper, and a bottle of water. Additionally, no props or pre-written notes will be allowed on the debate stage.
Furthermore, throughout the entire debate, including breaks, Biden and Trump will not be allowed to interact with their campaign staff.
One special rule for this year’s debate is that if either Biden or Trump is not speaking when it’s not their turn, their microphone will be muted.
Through this debate, Biden has the chance to assure voters of his ability at 81 to lead the U.S. through a series of challenges. At the same time, Trump, at 78, aims to dispel his criminal convictions in New York and convince millions of viewers that he is fit to return to the Oval Office.
President Biden has been out of the public eye for several days, preparing for the debate with his advisors at the presidential retreat in Camp David and strategizing to face one of the most challenging debate opponents in history.
The Biden team has been carefully analyzing Trump’s recent public interviews and speeches, discussing how to handle any questions Trump and the moderators might pose to Biden.
On the other hand, Trump dislikes debate simulations and prefers to sharpen his skills at rallies and events, relying on his instincts, intuition, and keen perception of his opponent’s political weaknesses.
The Trump team has spent months documenting what they perceive as signs of Biden’s declining stamina. They predict that Biden’s performance on Thursday will be stronger, aiming to raise people’s expectations for the incumbent president.
In a memo on Wednesday, Trump’s campaign team hinted that the former president will attack Biden on immigration and economic issues.
According to polls, neither candidate has garnered majority support among Americans, with stark differences on almost all core issues between the two.
The debate comes days after the second anniversary of the Supreme Court overturning the “Roe v. Wade” case, which ended federal protection for abortion rights, thrusting reproductive rights into the political spotlight.
The standoff also occurs after the Biden administration’s executive actions to restrict asylum applications at the U.S.-Mexico border to reduce immigrant numbers. Trump has made illegal immigration a core focus of his campaign.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza loom over this election, with both candidates differing significantly in their views on the U.S. role globally and its alliances. Differences on inflation, tax policies, and government investments in infrastructure will provide further contrasts.
Following the debate, both Biden and Trump will head to states they hope to win this fall. Trump will visit Virginia, a state that was a battleground and has recently shifted towards the Democratic Party.
Biden will travel to North Carolina, where he is expected to hold his largest campaign rally to date in the state, which Trump won with a narrow margin in 2020.
The impact of Thursday’s debate will largely depend on who is watching. Polling agencies estimate that undecided voters make up 5% to 10% of the total electorate, with this segment potentially forming only a small part of the debate viewership.
Experts suggest that unless one candidate makes an extremely outlandish move, polling numbers are unlikely to see significant shifts.
Since 1976, within two weeks of the first debate, candidates have seen an average shift of 2.4 percentage points in polling numbers.
But for the closely matched Biden and Trump, even small changes in support rates can have significant consequences, attracting enough swing voters and preparing for the November election.
In summary, the pressure is high for both candidates in this debate. According to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling aggregates, Trump currently leads Biden nationally with a slight edge of 45% to 44%.
The political analysis site “538” says that if Trump increases by 2.4 percentage points, he will significantly lead Biden in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada, putting more pressure on the incumbent president as he aims to sweep key northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
On the other hand, if Biden leads by 2.4 percentage points in all states, he will consolidate his lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, further distancing crucial battleground states like Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire from Republican influence.
Challenges Biden faces in appealing to American voters include his age, the current high cost of living, and his approach to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Trump is grappling with his conviction in the New York “hush money” case and multiple federal indictments.
Simultaneously, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who does not qualify to participate in the debate, is conducting his own campaign activities.