According to data released by “Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book” on Tuesday, June 25, the US new car sales for the first half of the year are expected to increase by nearly 225,000 vehicles compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 2.9%. However, Cox anticipates that the automotive industry may not be able to sustain this sales momentum in the second half of the year.
Charlie Chesbrough, the chief economist at Cox, stated in a press release, “Sales in recent months have been relatively strong, largely due to lower prices. Incentives are on the rise, benefiting buyers to some extent, but only to a certain degree. Expectations of price drops, coupled with increased uncertainty in interest rate policies, could lead to some buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach.”
Given the potential uncertainties in the second half of the year, Cox has maintained its forecast for total new car sales for the year at 15.7 million vehicles, representing a 1.3% increase from 2023’s 15.5 million vehicles.
“We are still concerned about maintaining the growth momentum seen so far this year in the second half,” Chesbrough said. Despite the uncertainties in the latter part of the year, including the US election, Cox anticipates that with more discounts and better pricing support, performance for this year will be slightly better than 2023 but will still face uncertain economic prospects.
Reported by CNBC, Cox’s chief economist Jonathan Smoke stated in a mid-year review presentation on Tuesday, “Overall, we expect some level of softening over the coming months.” “We are basically making some assumptions that we cannot fully sustain the pace of sales we’ve seen. However, we do not believe there will be a collapse in car sales.”
Wall Street predicts that compared to record-breaking or near-record levels of the past few years, most automakers will face challenges in car pricing and profits.
According to Cox’s forecasts, the top-selling new car manufacturer in the US for the first half of the year is General Motors, followed by Toyota in second place. Ford and Hyundai rank third and fourth, respectively.
Underperforming companies include Tesla and Stellantis. Tesla’s sales are expected to decline by 14.3%, while Stellantis forecasts a decrease of 16.5%.