A recent analysis has revealed that the Chinese Communist Party has ceased to release hundreds of data points. The question arises: just how bad is the Chinese economy?
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on May 5th, China (the CCP) has stopped publishing hundreds of data points that were previously used by researchers and investors. Not long ago, various official data could be accessed by anyone, but some of this data has now disappeared.
In most cases, the relevant departments of the CCP do not provide any explanation for halting the release or withholding of data. The report raises doubts that the timing of these data disappearances coincides with heavy debt burdens, a shaky real estate market, and other pressing issues that have prompted these departments to take a hardline approach to control the narrative.
For example, in April 2024, the A-share market was on the verge of collapse. Within two weeks, foreign investors sold over $2 billion in stocks. Following this, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges suddenly stopped releasing real-time data on overseas fund inflows and outflows.
In mid-2023, the officially announced youth unemployment rate reached a record high of 21.3%. Economist Zhang Dandan from Peking University believes that the youth unemployment rate could be as high as 46.5%. In August 2023, the official data was suspended, and five months later, the government released new data indicating a rate of 14.9%, excluding students.
In 2022, land transfer revenue plummeted by 48%, and by early 2023, data on land transfers disappeared. Other data that have vanished in recent years include year-end debt balances of toll road operators and the number of new stock market investors.
After the controversial “dynamic clearance” epidemic prevention policy ended at the end of 2022, national cremation data stopped being published. Discussions on the virus’s impact on social media were also subjected to censorship.
The declining birth rate has become a major economic burden, and some related data have also disappeared. Some missing information remains puzzling. For instance, data estimating the area of toilets in primary school buildings ceased to be published in 2022 and resumed in February of this year. Official soy sauce production data has not been released since May 2021.
While some data are still public, accessing them has become more difficult. A law passed in 2021 restricts data providers from allowing certain information to be accessed only within mainland China, such as enterprise registration data and satellite images. In early 2023, Bloomberg began limiting international users’ access to certain data sets, such as online retail data and land auction records.
The disappearance of data typically involves highly sensitive or troublesome areas for Beijing. Demonstrating a stable image is crucial for the Chinese Communist Party, especially as many middle-class citizens are increasingly anxious about the future and entering unknown territory in competition with the United States.
The disappearance of this data makes it even more challenging for the outside world to understand the actual situation in China. The expected impact of the trade war between China and the United States is projected to heavily damage China, as the sudden decline in trade has already led to some Chinese factories shutting down and laying off workers.
Reportedly, in order to gain a more realistic assessment, economists have turned to alternative data sources, such as movie box office revenue, satellite data on nighttime light intensity, the operating rates of cement factories, and the electricity generation of major power companies.
Some individuals analyze location data from map services operated by private companies like Baidu to measure commercial activities. One economist mentioned using the quantity of news reports on gym and beauty salon owners abruptly closing and absconding with members’ fees as a gauge to evaluate the service industry’s condition.