On December 5, the Trump administration released its first “National Security Strategy” (NSS) for the second term, with a focus on the Indo-Pacific region and a clear stance on Taiwan policy, prioritizing the prevention of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Analysts see this as the biggest strategic shift in U.S.-China relations in thirty years, signaling a new phase of comprehensive competition.
The 33-page “National Security Strategy” document released by the Trump administration on December 5 prioritizes the Indo-Pacific region as the second priority region after the Western Hemisphere. The document points out that the Indo-Pacific region, which accounts for one-third of the global nominal GDP, has become and will continue to be a critical economic and geopolitical battleground for the next century.
Regarding the Taiwan issue, the document makes the clearest statement yet. It highlights Taiwan’s significance for two main reasons: its dominant position in the semiconductor production field and its role as a direct access point to the Second Island Chain, dividing Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia into two distinct strategic zones.
The document explicitly states: “To prevent conflict in Taiwan, it is urgent to maintain military superiority.” It also reiterates the longstanding U.S. open policy towards Taiwan, stating that the U.S. does not support any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
In terms of military deployment, the strategic document pledges to “build a military capable of deterring aggression in any area of the First Island Chain.”
The document warns that allowing hostile forces to control the South China Sea could result in tolls being imposed on one of the world’s most important commercial shipping lanes, or even the “arbitrary closure and reopening of the waterway.”
In response to the U.S. “National Security Strategy,” Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the U.S. reiterating the importance of restraint in conflicts surrounding Taiwan is crucial for the region and the world.
American analyst Fang Wei, in an interview with Dajiyuan, stated that the Trump administration’s Taiwan policy is clearly outlined in this document, positioning Taiwan at the core of U.S. national security strategy. This is because Taiwan’s high-end semiconductor industry plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, while Taiwan occupies a key position in the First Island Chain, connecting Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.
He believes: “Under this national security strategy, the U.S. will defend Taiwan, and not only that, but will also call on important allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia to significantly increase military spending to become a force for joint deterrence in the Taiwan Strait conflict.”
Independent commentator Cai Shengkun told Dajiyuan: “Once the United States loses Taiwan, it also means losing Asia, and even Japan and South Korea.” This underscores Taiwan’s strategic importance beyond semiconductors.
The strategic document recognizes that the U.S.’s policy of engagement with China over the past three decades has been a complete failure. It points out that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not integrated into the “rule-based international order” despite market openness, foreign investment, and participation in global supply chains.
The document states that since 2017, the CCP has adapted to the shift in U.S. tariff policy by routing Chinese goods through other low- and middle-income countries, doubling exports to these countries between 2020 and 2024, reaching nearly four times the size of exports to the U.S.
The document states: “Looking ahead, we will rebalance the U.S.-China economic relationship, prioritizing reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence. Trade with China should be balanced and focused on non-sensitive areas.”
The measures outlined by the U.S. include ending “unfair” trade practices such as intellectual property theft, terminating government-led subsidies and industrial policies, and addressing threats to supply chains for critical resources such as rare earths.
The document also encourages allies to correct their imbalanced trade relations with China, urging European countries, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and other major countries to adopt a policy of rebalancing trade with Beijing.
Fang Wei analyzed that there are differences in strategy towards China between Trump 2.0 and Biden. Biden advocates for “extreme competition,” using all means to block the CCP’s development path in high-tech areas. However, Trump adopts a dual-track approach, engaging in both economic relations and military strategic containment. Economic engagement aims to stabilize trade relations and benefit the U.S. in trade with China, with the premise that “economic engagement with the CCP will not enhance its military strength.”
Fang Wei expects that Trump’s strategy towards China will encounter obstacles and require learning and adjustment. However, he believes: “If the U.S. can largely implement this strategy, then three years from now, the U.S. will be a country focused on its own development, bringing significant deterrence to the security of the Taiwan Strait and the expansion of the CCP globally.”
Cai Shengkun stated that the U.S. has undergone the biggest strategic shift towards China in three decades, with American politicians and elites’ illusions about the CCP completely shattered.
He believes that future U.S.-China competition will become the strategic focus of the U.S., facing comprehensive confrontation in economic, technological, supply chain, and military aspects. The U.S. will build the world’s largest free economic alliance and adopt a comprehensive containment policy against the CCP in the technology sector.
Cai Shengkun said: “The U.S. strategy towards China has truly entered a structural, institutional competition era, where the future of U.S.-China relations is not increased friction, but comprehensive containment and confrontation.”
Additionally, the Trump administration’s national security strategy document comprehensively outlines the new global positioning of “America First.”
The document states that the U.S. will no longer bear the “permanent burden of the world” and will prioritize preventing illegal immigration flows that disrupt stability, revitalizing American industrial strength, and enhancing American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. In this document, the plan to “re-engage the Western Hemisphere” is referred to as the “Trump Corollary” to the “Monroe Doctrine.”
Geographically, the strategic document prioritizes the Western Hemisphere as the primary region, reaffirming and expanding the Monroe Doctrine, which asserts that the Americas belong to the Americans.
According to the “Trump Corollary,” the U.S. will prevent foreign competitors from deploying threatening military forces in the Americas or obtaining and controlling critical ports, telecommunications networks, or other infrastructure in the Americas. The U.S. will readjust military deployments, withdrawing personnel from less crucial regions and focusing on the Caribbean and Latin America.
Regarding Europe, the document calls for NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP and warns Europe of the risk of “civilizational demise.” In Middle East policy, the strategy explicitly shifts the region from a “battleground” to an “investment and partnership area,” ending decades of “nation-building” operations. For Africa, the policy transitions from “aid” to “energy and mineral cooperation.”
Fang Wei believes that the overall governing philosophy of the Trump administration has three main points:
First, it continues the “America First” policy but with greater clarity, meaning “the U.S. no longer seeks to dominate the world but only strives to make the U.S. the strongest, wealthiest, and safest country.”
Second, the U.S. has a clear priority order – the Western Hemisphere is the top priority, followed by the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East.
Third, “in all areas, the U.S. does not name specific countries, but the target everywhere is the CCP.”
Cai Shengkun pointed out that the White House also released another document on December 5, warning that Europe “may look completely different in 20 years” and urging an end to the “era of massive migration,” calling for the restoration of “U.S. hegemony in Latin America.”
He stated: “This logic aligns with the national security strategy: the U.S. is concentrating all resources to confront China (the CCP) comprehensively and is no longer willing to foot the bill for other regions.”