On August 6, 2025, US President Trump recently announced that if Russia and Ukraine fail to reach a ceasefire agreement by August 8, the US will impose “secondary tariffs” on all countries that still have trade ties with Russia. Goods exported to the US from these countries will be subjected to a 100% tariff.
Trump stated in July, “I often deal with many things through trade, which is particularly effective in ending wars.” He has previously imposed secondary sanction tariffs on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil and now plans to impose similar sanctions on Russia’s trade partners. Trump emphasized that these tariffs are aimed at cutting off the funding source for the Russian military.
Oil and natural gas are Russia’s primary export commodities, mainly sold to China, India, and Turkey. Despite a decrease in Russia’s oil exports this year, it still ranks as the third-largest oil-producing country globally, trailing only behind Saudi Arabia and the US.
Some analysts believe that this move could lead to a surge in international energy prices, impacting the global economy.
Kieran Tompkins, an economist at Capital Economics, stated that if these tariffs go into effect, they will reduce the amount of Russian oil and gas entering the global market, thus pushing up energy prices, similar to the price surge after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which exacerbated global inflation.
However, Tompkins pointed out that energy prices are influenced by multiple factors, and it is not expected to fluctuate as drastically as before. He mentioned that OPEC+ has spare production capacity to increase oil supply at any time. President Trump expressed no concern, citing record-high US oil production.
Richard Nephew, a sanctions expert at Columbia University, stated that sanctions are not only challenging to formulate but also complicated to enforce because the sanctioned party will actively seek ways to circumvent them. For example, Russia has hundreds of unidentified “shadow fleets” that can conceal the true source of oil and gas, helping its trade partners evade secondary sanctions.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Finland noted that India has been the second-largest buyer of Russian oil since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022.
Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with this. If the US imposes secondary sanctions on India, Indian goods will face a 100% tariff, leading to price hikes, including products like Apple iPhones. Currently, the US imposes a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
Apple is speeding up the transfer of iPhone production lines to India, especially models destined for the US market. If the new tariffs cover these products, the cost of purchasing an iPhone for American consumers could double as importers pass on the tariff costs to consumers.
China is the largest global purchaser of Russian oil. If President Trump decides to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods, it will likely raise prices for a large number of consumer goods. The value of goods imported from China to the US is five times higher than those imported from India and consists mainly of toys, clothing, and electronic products.
Experts point out that imposing secondary tariffs on Beijing could impact Trump’s efforts in US-China trade negotiations since his first term. Simon Evenett, a trade expert at the IMD Business School, believes that such tariff escalation measures are unlikely to compel concessions from the Chinese side. He noted that given the close cooperation between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in recent years, it would be “very difficult” to separate Beijing from Moscow without sufficient reason.
Moreover, Trump’s imposition of triple-digit tariffs on China last time nearly severed trade between the two countries with no visible results. If tariffs escalate again, it could exacerbate inflation pressures in the US and further harm China’s already weakened manufacturing sector.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air analysis highlights that the EU and Turkey remain significant buyers of Russian energy.
The EU was Russia’s largest export market before 2022. Despite significantly reducing energy imports from Russia after the outbreak of war, the EU has not completely ceased imports.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in June that the EU would stop importing Russian energy by the end of 2027 and acknowledged that Russia had repeatedly used energy supply threats against the EU.
Currently, the US and EU have the highest bilateral trade volume globally, and they recently reached a new agreement whereby the US imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods.
According to BBC reports, many are concerned that if the US imposes secondary sanctions on the EU, it will further significantly reduce EU exports to the US. The EU’s primary goods include pharmaceuticals and machinery, which are challenging to source elsewhere, potentially causing American consumers to accept price increases.
Russia’s economy grew by 4.3% last year. However, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov recently warned that the Russian economy is on the brink of recession after overheating. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts Russia’s economic growth rate this year to be only 0.9%.
If US secondary sanctions effectively reduce Russian exports, it will accelerate the country’s descent into recession.
Around one-third of the Russian government’s expenses rely on oil and gas revenues. However, its energy export volume has gradually declined.
Simultaneously, Putin has increased defense spending to the highest level since the Cold War, accounting for about 6.3% of the GDP.
(This article was referenced from BBC reports)