On Tuesday, July 29th, the S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the data for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for May 2025. This leading indicator of U.S. housing prices revealed that the year-over-year price increase in May dropped to 2.3%, lower than April’s 2.7%, signaling a continuing softness in the real estate market.
In May, the national house price index for the nine major census divisions in the U.S., not seasonally adjusted, showed a 2.3% annual increase, down from 2.7% in April. The 10-city composite index saw a 3.4% annual increase, also lower than April’s 4.1%, while the 20-city composite index had a 2.8% annual increase, down from 3.4% in April.
New York City remained at the top of the annual increase chart for the second consecutive month in May, with a 7.4% increase, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Detroit (4.9%). Tampa, Florida, experienced a 2.4% decrease in prices in May, marking the weakest performance among the top 20 cities.
In May, the national index, not seasonally adjusted, saw a slight increase of 0.4%, as did both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices.
After seasonal adjustment, the national index decreased by 0.3% in May, with the 10-city and 20-city composite indices also declining by 0.3% each.
Nicholas Godec, Managing Director of Fixed Income and Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, stated: “The data for May continues the trend of softening housing prices this year, with the annual growth rate narrowing for the fourth consecutive month. National house prices are only 2.3% higher than a year ago, marking the smallest increase since July 2023, and the majority of gains have occurred in the past six months.”
He pointed out: “While the spring housing market saw some price increases, it is still not enough to indicate a significant acceleration. May saw the national index with a 2.3% annual increase, down from 2.7% in April; with 20-city and 10-city indices at 2.8% and 3.4% annual increases respectively, both showing a decline.”
Regional performance also reflects this trend, showcasing significant geographical disparities. New York led the annual increase at 7.4%, with Chicago and Detroit close behind at 6.1% and 4.9%, highlighting a pattern of growth from the Midwest and Northeast regions in 2025.
On the other hand, Tampa experienced a 2.4% annual price decrease, marking seven consecutive months of decline. Several cities on the West Coast also showed weakness, with Los Angeles rising only 1.1%, San Diego 0.4%, Phoenix 0.9%, and San Francisco declining by 0.6%, indicating that markets that experienced the most dramatic increases during the pandemic are now continuing to soften.
Monthly trends also indicate a general softening in the market. The three major indices saw only a 0.4% increase without seasonal adjustments, the smallest increase since January; after seasonal adjustment, all three indices decreased by 0.3%, signaling the third consecutive month of declines in the seasonally adjusted national composite index.
Godec concluded: “This year’s seasonal growth momentum is far weaker than before. The economic slowdown is not solely due to rising mortgage rates; it reflects a market readjustment to a tighter financial environment, low trading volumes, and increasingly evident regional disparities. Despite maintaining stability, national house prices are barely holding on in the face of continued affordability pressure and inadequate inventory.”
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The housing price index is released on the last Tuesday morning of each month at 9 a.m. Eastern Time, aiming to accurately track changes in single-family home prices across major metropolitan areas. The index is established using paired sales methods and covers thousands of normal transactional data on home sales.
The three major indices released are:
1. National House Price Index: Covers nine major census divisions, reflecting the overall value of single-family homes in the U.S., released quarterly.
2. 10-City Composite Index: Encompassing 10 major metropolitan areas, providing a weighted average.
3. 20-City Composite Index: Covering 20 metropolitan areas, also presenting a weighted average.