After the incident with the Rocket Force small group, the political status of the Chinese Communist Party’s Defense Minister has reached an all-time low. Dong Jun, unlike his predecessors, did not enter the Central Military Commission or the State Council Committee. American military experts pointed out that Xi Jinping fears the military aligning with opposition forces to overthrow his rule, intentionally lowering the military’s status to merely being a tool to execute orders.
At the Third Plenary Session held by the Chinese Communist Party in July, Defense Minister Dong Jun, a General, neither entered the Central Military Commission nor was appointed as a State Councilor. This resulted in the Defense Minister’s political status hitting an all-time low.
Since the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party government, the first Defense Minister, Peng Dehuai, was a member of the Political Bureau; the second Defense Minister, Lin Biao, was the Vice Chairman of the Central Committee and the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission; the third Defense Minister, Ye Jianying, was also the Vice Chairman of the Central Committee and Central Military Commission; the fourth Defense Minister, Xu Xiangqian, was a member of the Political Bureau and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
By the 1980s, Geng Biao concurrently served as a member of the Central Political Bureau and Vice Premier of the State Council, also holding the position of Defense Minister; his successor, Zhang Aiping, served as the Vice Premier of the State Council and later as the State Councilor while concurrently serving as Defense Minister; Qin Jiwei concurrently served as a member of the Political Bureau and State Councilor while serving as Defense Minister; Chi Haotian concurrently served as a member of the Political Bureau, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and State Councilor while serving as Defense Minister; Cao Gangchuan concurrently served as a member of the Central Political Bureau, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and State Councilor while serving as Defense Minister.
However, since Xi Jinping entered the Standing Committee of the Central Political Bureau, there has been no arrangement of a member of the Political Bureau or Vice Chairman of the Military Commission concurrently serving as Defense Minister. Liang Guanglie, Chang Wanquan, Wei Fenghe, and Li Shangfu, besides holding the title of Defense Minister, are only members of the Central Military Commission and State Council.
Following the “rebellion” incident in the Rocket Force, Dong Jun was appointed as Defense Minister, but even his position as a member of the Central Military Commission and State Councilor was stripped away. This means that the Defense Minister has lost the position of a Vice-Ministerial level, becoming just an ordinary minister.
The former Director of Operations at the Hawaii Joint Intelligence Center of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Carl Schuster, told Epoch Times that it is not a demotion of Dong Jun, but a downgrade of the entire military.
“I think Xi Jinping is working to reduce the military’s influence and power within the Party. I think he also sees the People’s Liberation Army’s diplomatic actions negatively.”
The primary responsibility of the Chinese Communist Party’s Defense Minister is to represent the Party’s image when the Chinese military interacts with the media and armed forces of other countries.
Schuster stated that Xi Jinping wants to directly control diplomatic affairs. “He wants the military to strictly follow orders. He believes the military has become too autonomous in handling matters. That’s why he excludes the Defense Minister from the Central Military Commission. He tells the military, ‘Your job is just to enforce policies – policies are determined by the Central Military Commission.’
“So if you look at it from that perspective, Xi Jinping is working to limit what the military can control and his own autonomy in decision-making. He is attempting to closely align them under his control.”
Why does Xi Jinping want to reduce the military’s power? Schuster believes it stems from Xi Jinping’s insecurity. “He is concerned that if the military joins the opposition, he could be overthrown.”
In May of last year, news emerged about the crackdown on the Chinese Communist Party’s Rocket Force. Hong Kong media reported that in April, Lieutenant General Zhang Zhenzhong, who previously served as the Deputy Commander of the Rocket Force, and his successor, Lieutenant General Liu Guangbin, were arrested.
Colonel Yao Cheng of the former Chinese Naval Command posted on Twitter that on June 26, Rocket Force Commander General Li Yuchao was taken away during a meeting in his office.
Around the same time, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang “disappeared.” In September, Defense Minister Li Shangfu went missing.
Yuan Hongbing, a former professor at Peking University Law School, told Epoch Times that the arrest of Rocket Force leaders and the disappearance of the Foreign Minister and Defense Minister stem from Xi Jinping’s crackdown on what he sees as a rebellious group.
Yuan Hongbing stated, “Li Yuchao, the Rocket Force Commander, had his secretary disclose to the Central Military Commission Office of the Chinese Communist Party that Li Yuchao and senior members of the Rocket Force were ‘two-faced,’ meaning politically disloyal. Specifically, they allegedly supported Xi Jinping’s strategy of launching a war in the Taiwan Strait publicly, but in private discussions, they believed that the previous political commissar of the National Defense University, Liu Yazhou, was correct in opposing the war in the Taiwan Strait.”
Liu Yazhou is the son-in-law of the former Chinese President Li Xiannian, holds the rank of Air Force General, and is one of the most opposed senior military leaders to using force against Taiwan. This viewpoint starkly contrasts with Xi Jinping’s directive in 2022 for the military to “focus all energy on fighting, and all work on fighting.”
On June 27 of this year, the fate of Li Shangfu was revealed. The Chinese authorities announced that Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe were expelled from the Party due to serious violations of discipline and law.
Schuster affirmed that this is Xi Jinping’s means of threatening subordinates to remain loyal to him. “A dictator once said, the greatest loyalty comes from those who do not feel secure in their positions. ‘If they know I can fire them at any time, they will work harder to please me.'”
After three months of Li Shangfu being missing, Navy Admiral Dong Jun was appointed as Defense Minister. However, he also became the Defense Minister with the lowest political status in Chinese history.
Through reducing the military’s political influence, Xi Jinping places the military more under the authority of the political leadership, as per Schuster.
“I think he is very concerned with the military’s development, worries about the military acting independently in what they perceive is in the best interests of the military. He wants the military to act according to his and the Party’s directives. He least wants to see the military align with any potential opposition within the Party. To achieve this, he not only needs loyalists within the military; he also needs to reduce the military’s influence within the Party.”
Schuster added that Xi Jinping’s actions are not popular, putting him at risk of being overthrown.
“Because many of the things he has done have harmed China. His aggressive foreign policy has damaged China’s international reputation. His aggressive actions in the South China Sea have also tarnished China’s international reputation. So, it has hurt China’s economy. Foreign investors are no longer rushing to China. This is detrimental to the economy.”
Schuster stated that Xi Jinping needs the economy to continue to grow. He should have worked to rectify his mistakes. However, instead, “he arrests foreign investors, seizes their businesses, assets, and imprisons them on bogus charges, making foreign investors cautious about investing funds in China.”
Schuster stated that Xi Jinping’s unilateral actions, leading to alienation, resembles another Chinese Communist dictator, Mao Zedong. He demands absolute loyalty from subordinates to ensure that any order is followed and is willing to take on any negative consequences.
“This was the reason for Mao Zedong launching the Cultural Revolution. The Great Leap Forward was disastrous. He saw rising dissent within the Party. So, he launched the Cultural Revolution to eliminate those who might oppose him, of course, also eliminating those who criticized him. Why else would he purge Deng Xiaoping and imprison him?”
In 1960, Deng Xiaoping and Liu Shaoqi attempted to correct the errors of the “Great Leap Forward,” thereby offending Mao Zedong. In 1965, Mao Zedong criticized the Central Secretariat, led by Deng Xiaoping, for establishing “independent kingdoms.” In 1967, Deng Xiaoping was raided, purged, and criticized.
Mao Zedong’s unilateral launch of the Cultural Revolution led to his alienation. On October 6, 1976, less than a month after Mao Zedong’s death, Hua Guofeng, Ye Jianying, and Wang Dongxing launched a coup in Beijing’s Zhongnanhai Hall, toppling the “Gang of Four” led by Mao Zedong’s wife Jiang Qing and ending the ten-year long Cultural Revolution.
Schuster stated that Xi Jinping is also taking actions similar to Mao Zedong. “If you don’t fully agree with my plans, I will investigate your corrupt behavior.”