The Chinese authorities recently invited U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to visit China. While engaging with the Democratic Party government, there were reports that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had also made several attempts to establish contact with the campaign team of U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump, even deploying former Ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai, but all efforts were in vain. Experts say that the CCP is trying to court both sides, but its ability to influence is limited. It is inevitable for the U.S. and China to decouple in areas such as technology, regardless of who comes to power.
Sullivan just concluded his three-day visit to China on August 29. During a press conference, Sullivan mentioned that they discussed issues affecting Western companies and supply chains but failed to reach a consensus after intense discussions. He pledged to continue protecting cutting-edge American technology from being used by the CCP for military purposes and reiterated a strategy of maintaining a “small yard and high walls”.
The White House has stated that a call with Xi Jinping is planned in the “coming weeks.”
According to the announcement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Sullivan was “invited by Director Wang Yi” to visit China for “a new round of strategic communication between China and the U.S.”
Sullivan met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, and Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. He is the first U.S. National Security Adviser invited to visit China in eight years and the only White House official to meet with the top leaders of the CCP and the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission during his visit.
In recent years, tensions between the world’s two largest economies have been escalating from trade to finance and technology. The Biden administration emphasizes responsible management of current U.S.-China relations to prevent competition from turning into conflict. In terms of relations with China, the Biden administration has always advocated for strategic engagement. In contrast, the CCP’s official statements focus on long-term goals regarding Sino-U.S. relations, avoiding specific short-term measures.
China expert Wang He told Dajiyuan that Sullivan’s visit to China serves to observe the current political situation in China and to communicate directly with influential military figures. The CCP has made concessions, such as agreeing to high-level military dialogues between China and the U.S. Additionally, Sullivan’s visit to China is driven by the Biden administration’s concerns during the critical period of the presidential election and power transition, fearing that the CCP may take risks in the Taiwan Strait, hence the necessity for communication and establishing boundaries between the two countries.
Wang He said that the actual discussions between the Biden administration and Beijing may differ significantly from public documents. The CCP aims to create an atmosphere of “the U.S. seeking reconciliation with China” for domestic propaganda purposes. As long as there is no war, the CCP refrains from military action against Taiwan or massive military support to Russia, the Biden administration will consider it a win and view a graceful exit from power.
Deputy Professor Chen Shimin of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University stated to Dajiyuan that Sullivan’s visit to China is strategic communication to achieve the highly competitive yet responsible approach repeatedly emphasized by Biden, aiming to prevent heightened competition from deteriorating into conflict or war.
He also mentioned that because President Biden has referred to Xi Jinping as a dictator, subordinates are hesitant to speak frankly to him, resulting in Xi receiving inaccurate information. Therefore, Biden believes it is essential to engage in direct talks with Xi before the end of the year, a significant objective of Sullivan’s visit to China.
Chen Shimin believed that Xi Jinping’s high-level reception of Sullivan, accompanied by Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, signifies Xi’s current priority in addressing domestic issues, particularly economic concerns. He hopes to alleviate pressure on China from the technology and trade wars between the U.S. and China. Xi’s focus is likely to be on resolving domestic issues in 2024 and 2025. By 2026 or 2027, when he aims for a fourth term, his stance may become more assertive.
The U.S. presidential election is less than 70 days away. Whether Democratic candidate Harris or Republican candidate Trump takes office remains uncertain.
According to sources cited by the Financial Times on August 28, Beijing’s attempts to establish contact with Trump’s campaign team ended in failure multiple times, with former Ambassador Cui Tiankai being unsuccessful in mediating.
Steve Yates, Chairman of the American Foreign Policy Council’s China Program, stated that meetings between the Trump team and Chinese officials were “almost pointless.” Trump’s stance on China is well known, posing the risk of “misunderstandings” in the event of contact with China.
Wang He mentioned that the CCP made two preparations for the U.S. election, contacting both the Trump team officially and through private channels. Beijing prepared to hedge its bets in case Trump was re-elected, but it seems the CCP’s capacity for political intervention in the U.S. is limited. Since Trump views contact with the CCP as futile, Beijing’s influence is constrained.
Chen Shimin stated that before the U.S. election, the CCP seeks to engage with both the Democratic and Republican parties to understand their future positions on China, considering which party is likely to win the presidency. The CCP invited Sullivan for a visit due to the Democrats being the incumbent party. However, Beijing needs to establish contacts with the Trump camp through private channels. At this time, it is inappropriate for the Trump team to meet with Chinese officials to avoid providing leverage to the Democrats.
Chen Shimin noted that in recent years, Americans have become increasingly discontent with the CCP, especially with Xi Jinping, hence U.S. candidates must reflect this sentiment, making it challenging for them to adopt a softer stance on China. The CCP currently has limited options before the U.S. election and can only take action post-election to assess its influence on U.S. policy toward China.
Wang He emphasized that decoupling in economic and strategic competition between the U.S. and China is inevitable. The U.S. has made a definitive choice that cannot be reversed, regardless of the incoming U.S. administration or the methods employed by the CCP. While there may be fluctuations in economic decoupling, the separation in technology and personnel exchanges between the U.S. and China is irreversible.
“Recently, IBM closed its research institute in China, and Microsoft also withdrew. Various sectors in the U.S. now fully recognize the terrifying nature of the CCP regime. Hence, U.S. tech companies are moving swiftly, and there has been a major downturn in personnel exchanges between the U.S. and China.”