In the first half of this year, the US cotton exports to China saw a significant decline, indicating that the trade friction and tariff uncertainties between the US and China are accelerating the global shift in the clothing industry supply chain.
According to the data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in the first ten months of the 2024/25 marketing year as of May, US cotton exports to China plummeted by about 90% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, exports to markets such as Pakistan, Turkey, and Vietnam have increased, with shipments to Vietnam nearly tripling.
The report indicates that the total US cotton exports in the first ten months of the 2024/25 marketing year were about 11.9 million bales, a 1% increase compared to the previous year. The drop in exports to China has been fully compensated by other markets, and it is expected that exports for the current fiscal year could reach 12 million bales.
President Trump imposed additional tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods in April this year, although the rate was reduced to 30% after the agreement reached in May, uncertainties still linger over the future of negotiations.
Due to the rising risks of relying on China’s production model, the clothing industry supply chain in the American market has been steadily shifting towards South Asia and Southeast Asia in recent years. The low labor costs and some tariff exemptions have further strengthened this trend. The US has also reduced tariffs on Vietnam from 46% to 20% and on Pakistan from 29% to 19%, making these countries important destinations for clothing and textile exports.
The US is also enhancing monitoring of “transshipment trade,” particularly focusing on the pattern of Chinese companies setting up factories in Vietnam to use Chinese fabrics and yarns for re-export to the US.
According to public reports, since the trade friction outbreak in Trump’s first term in 2018, China has been actively promoting diversification of agricultural product supplies, focusing on soybeans as well as including corn and cotton, aiming to ensure stable import sources and reduce sensitivity to US tariff policies.
In 2024, Brazil has risen to become China’s largest cotton supplier. Citing data from the 2025 International Cotton Association Conference (ICAC Guangzhou 2025), the UK’s professional cotton information agency Cotlook indicates that in 2024, China’s total raw cotton imports reached 2.618 million tons, a 33.8% increase year-on-year. Among them, Brazil supplied 1.102 million tons, accounting for 42.1%, surpassing the US (33.4%) and Australia (12.6%), ranking first.
According to a report by the UK’s professional industry media EcoTextile News, China accounted for about 40% of US cotton exports in the 2023/24 fiscal year; however, this proportion is estimated to plummet to only about 8% in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
The report states that compared to the previous quarter, India’s cotton imports in the 2024/25 year have increased by nearly 3.3 times, and Bangladesh and India are expected to increase their imports from the US.
In August of this year, India temporarily waived cotton import tariffs to support its clothing industry in reducing costs, also seen as a gesture of goodwill towards the Trump administration. This move is expected to further boost US cotton exports to India.
Additionally, international cotton prices remain low. The New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures were around 66 cents per pound this week, slightly lower than the 69 cents at the beginning of the year, nearing the lower range seen in recent years.
(This article references a report from Nikkei Asia)