In November 2025, the wholesale prices in the United States saw a slight increase in September, but fell below economists’ expectations. At the same time, retail sales for the month grew by 0.2%, also slightly lower than economists had predicted.
The data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday, November 25, showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for wholesale prices, adjusted for seasonal factors, rose by 0.3% in September, in line with the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones & Company.
Excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the core PPI only rose by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis, lower than the expected increase of 0.2%. Both core and overall PPI had decreased by 0.1% in August.
In comparison to the same period last year, the overall PPI increased by 2.9%, while the core PPI rose by 2.6%.
Due to the government shutdown causing a delay in data release, the PPI data was released over a month later than scheduled. Even two weeks after the end of the government shutdown, federal statistical agencies are still working intensively to catch up on the backlog.
The PPI serves as a potential indicator for the inflation rate of retail prices in the coming months. It measures the costs paid by producers for their goods and services, rather than the costs paid by consumers, but it indicates potential changes in store prices, making it a good leading indicator for measuring inflation pressures. The core PPI is viewed as a better predictive indicator.
While the PPI data itself may not have a significant impact on Federal Reserve policymakers, some of the data released on Tuesday will be included in the calculation formula of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the official inflation indicator set by the Federal Reserve.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics may not release the PPI data for October, as it has already canceled plans to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October. The November CPI will be released on December 18. PPI data is typically released around the time of the CPI data.
In September, commodity prices rose by 0.9%, driving the increase in the PPI, while service prices remained unchanged from the previous month.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase in commodity prices in September was the largest since February 2024, with energy prices surging by 3.5% and food prices rising by 1.1%. A significant portion of the increase in energy prices came from the sharp rise in oil prices, which soared by 11.8%.
Also on Tuesday, data released by the Census Bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that retail sales in September increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, slightly lower than the expected 0.3% growth. Excluding auto sales, retail sales for the month grew by 0.3%, in line with expectations.
Sales of miscellaneous goods increased by 2.9%, while sales at gas stations increased by 2% due to the rise in oil prices.
Sales at sporting goods, hobby, and music stores decreased by 2.5%, while online sales dropped by 0.7%.
Sales at food and beverage establishments saw steady growth in September, increasing by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year.
Retail sales data are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation. Retail sales in September increased by 4.3% compared to the same period last year, higher than the 3% CPI increase for that month.