The latest data shows that in September, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the United States dropped to its lowest point in 5 months due to continuous concerns about persistent high inflation and a weak job market. This comes at a time when the U.S. government is facing the risk of a partial shutdown.
The non-profit organization headquartered in New York, The Conference Board, announced on Tuesday (September 30) that the monthly Consumer Confidence Index measuring the current economic conditions dropped by 3.6 points from the previous month to 94.2 points in September. This figure is below the Dow Jones & Company’s forecast of 96.0 points and marks the lowest level since April, when President Trump introduced comprehensive tariff policies.
At the time of this data release, the U.S. Congress had not yet passed a new appropriations bill. If Congress fails to pass the bill by midnight Eastern Time on September 30, the federal government will partially shut down at the end of this fiscal year, meaning all non-essential government agencies and federal employees would temporarily halt work until a new temporary or formal appropriations bill is passed and becomes effective. It is expected that data release work will also be interrupted by the partial shutdown of the federal government.
The latest report from The Conference Board also shows that in addition to the weakening main indicators, the “present situation” index has dropped to its lowest level in a year.
The organization’s assessment of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business, and the job market fell to 73.4 points, significantly below the threshold of 80. The Conference Board believes that the threshold of 80 may indicate a potential economic recession in the near future.
Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board, remarked, “Consumers’ assessments of business conditions are far less positive than in recent months, and their assessment of current job opportunities has been declining for the ninth consecutive month, hitting new lows in years.”
However, despite clear signs of weakness in the labor market this year, the employment situation in August showed slight improvement compared to the previous month.
Responses to The Conference Board’s survey indicate that this month, respondents mentioned prices and inflation more frequently, with these two issues once again becoming consumers’ major concerns about the economy. The survey also shows that while mentions of tariffs decreased this month, they still remain at a high level.
Earlier government data released this month showed an increase in inflation in August, driven by rising prices of gasoline, groceries, and airfare. However, excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady compared to July.
Although the unemployment rate and layoffs are still at historic lows, the labor market has significantly weakened this year, making it increasingly challenging for job seekers to find employment.