The aging population and declining birth rate in the United States are becoming more severe, according to recent statistical data. This long-standing trend is leading to population structural pressures, with some experts predicting that almost every aspect of the US economy and infrastructure will be affected in the coming decades.
Medical expert Dr. David Ghozland stated to Epoch Times, “What I see is a historic demographic shift triggering a comprehensive reorganization of our economy and society.”
In a report titled “Rapid Fertility Decline Is an Existential Crisis” released by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde called the declining fertility rate the US’s “current real economic challenge.”
Data from the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) in Washington, DC, shows that by 2050, the population of adults aged 65 and older is projected to reach 82 million, accounting for 23% of the total population, a 42% increase from 2022.
Meanwhile, the general fertility rate has plummeted to historic lows. According to a report from the McKinsey Global Institute in New York, the overall fertility rate in North America dropped from 3.1 in 1950 to 1.6 in 2023.
Ghozland believes that the demographic inversion will force structural changes in the US budget and healthcare sectors, potentially leading to what he calls “harsh choices” in the next 10 years.
He stated, “Our existing safety nets, such as Medicare, will experience a dismantling within the framework of the system.” He sees the rapid aging of the population as the “primary political and economic competition of this era.”
Ghozland pointed out the massive changes underway in the healthcare industry. He noted the flourishing longevity industry, expected to become a multi-billion-dollar market integrating biotechnology, human health, and regenerative medicine.
Focusing on supporting longevity in pharmaceuticals and healthcare is no longer a niche industry, Ghozland remarked. However, underlying this emerging economic driver in healthcare is a “significant threat.”
Apart from increasing pressure on existing healthcare resources, the demographic shift will lead to the long-term dissolution of the “social contract,” said Ghozland.
Melissa S. Kearney, director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group in Washington, wrote for The Dispatch, urging for a better conversation on raising the birth rate as the aging and declining birth rates pose challenges for individuals, families, and the nation.
The shortage of healthcare professionals has become a challenge. According to a report from the American Association of Colleges of Nursing, the shortage of nurses in the US has reached 500,000 this year, with a projected 10% shortfall expected to persist through 2027. By 2026, the US may face a shortage of 3.2 million healthcare workers.
In an article titled “Healthcare on the brink: navigating the challenges of an aging society in the United States” published by Aging magazine, a 2024 study highlighted that the current healthcare system is ill-prepared to meet the growing demands of the aging population.
In his work in reproductive healthcare, Ghozland has observed another aspect of the demographic inversion in the US.
“The decline in fertility rates has a more significant social-psychological reason, what I call ‘Procreative Dissonance’,” he explained.
He elaborated on the conflict between the desire for fertility and the physiological timeline for fertility, which hinders many couples from starting families, a notion supported by relevant data.
The CDC’s report “Births in the United States, 2024” stated a decline in fertility rates for women aged 15 to 34, while rates for women aged 40 to 44 saw an increase. This trend aligns with the decreasing teenage pregnancy rates, which fell by 28% from 1990 to 2002.
Furthermore, evidence suggests that not only are individuals delaying childbirth, but many are opting out of parenthood altogether. A study by the Pew Research Center on “The Experiences of U.S. Adults Who Don’t Have Children” revealed an increase in the number of individuals under 50 without children who are unlikely to have them.
Some researchers believe the risks of this demographic change are overstated, while others argue that it will have significant economic impacts.
McKinsey Global Institute’s analysis indicates that the younger generation will inherit lower economic growth, bear more costs of retirees, and traditional intergenerational wealth flow will erode.
Meanwhile, analysts suggest that countries, including the US, need to boost birth rates to avoid passive depopulation.
Economists and social security agencies have long warned that the trend of an increasing number of social security beneficiaries and decreasing contributors will lead to the program’s bankruptcy. A report by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation projected that social security expenditures will exceed income by $437 billion by 2034.
As the workforce entering the labor market decreases in the coming decades, substantial changes will occur. Additionally, more adults are choosing to continue working past traditional retirement age, with some returning to the job market.
Scott Siff, CEO of Pivoters, a job-posting platform for individuals over 55, stated, “What’s most important is not the average age of the population but the average age of the workforce.”
He noted the desire of many individuals over 55 to work, emphasizing the positive impact of employment on longevity, health, happiness, and purpose. Many people nearing typical retirement age only have savings around $50,000, a stark contrast to the estimated $1 million needed for retirement.
The retirement costs vary by state, with the Midwest and Southern regions having lower annual expenses of around $50,000 for retirees, leading many elderly individuals into financial difficulties.
The aging population and declining birth rate will have significant ramifications across multiple sectors, especially affecting the US military.
National security lawyer Irina Tsukerman revealed that by the mid-2030s, the decline in the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds in the US will pose recruitment challenges for the military, as many in that age group may not meet enlistment standards due to health, educational, or legal reasons.
Tsukerman believes this will force a reevaluation of the US Armed Forces’ readiness definition, shifting toward smaller, technologically advanced forces reliant on precision technology, automation, and specialized training.
However, she cautioned that this transition poses risks, leading to reduced depth and limited options for continued operations in multiple theaters due to diminished manpower.
The dual challenges of aging and low fertility rates will have far-reaching strategic implications, Tsukerman stated, emphasizing the significance of population structure on military strength, industrial production, and societal vitality display.
With the aging US population, the changing balance between dependents and producers is tightening fiscal space and pressuring the social contract to bear the burden of defense spending, welfare expenses, and investments in modernization, research, and military readiness.