Amid the backdrop of US-China confrontation, the US Congress resumed on Monday (September 9). This week, the Federal House of Representatives will vote on a series of bills targeting the “Chinese threat.” Which of these bills exert the most pressure on Beijing? Experts are particularly concerned about the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act,” which involves the disclosure of assets of senior Chinese officials.
The US Congress reconvened on the 9th, and with only three weeks before the November election, the House of Representatives at Capitol Hill will work towards a “China-themed week,” aiming to swiftly deliberate and pass a series of bills concerning the Chinese threat. The contents include reducing US reliance on Chinese biotech companies, restricting Chinese electric vehicles and drones, prohibiting Chinese citizens from purchasing US farmland, strengthening export controls, among many other measures.
According to a report by “Nikkei Asia,” out of the 36 bills awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives, 31 will be passed by expedited voting bypassing regular parliamentary procedures.
A series of bills passed by the House of Representatives yesterday involved banning China’s drone manufacturer DJI from operating new drones in the US, preventing Chinese aggression against Taiwan, revealing the extent of Chinese penetration into the US telecommunications and technology industry, establishing a fund to counteract China’s malicious influence, and also passing the “Biosecure Act,” blacklisting certain Chinese biotech companies and their US subsidiaries.
Yesterday afternoon, the House of Representatives discussed the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act” proposed last January by Republican Representative French Hill and Democratic Representative Brad Sherman, which was passed unanimously.
Hill stated that if China chose to attack Taiwan, the US Treasury would reveal the illegal assets of senior Beijing officials and cut off their access to US financial services.
Sherman mentioned that the main purpose of the bill is to weaken the support of senior Chinese officials for invading Taiwan. If the US President decides to take action regarding the Taiwan Strait situation according to the “Taiwan Relations Act,” US financial institutions would be able to disclose specific officials and their families’ assets globally and freeze their assets in the US.
Su Ziyun, Director of the Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for Defense and Security Studies, stated in an interview with “Dajiyuan” that the use of the term “China-themed week” by the Congress this year is a strong signal directed at Beijing. Among the series of bills, the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act” is of particular concern to the Taiwanese people. If Beijing attacks Taiwan, the US will publicize the assets of senior Chinese officials in the US, thus challenging their legitimacy.
Su believes that whether the US intervenes in case of Chinese military action against Taiwan or a blockade is the decision of the US President. Therefore, the results of the US election will affect the actual deterrent strength of these bills against China in the future.
However, Su believes that the original “Taiwan Relations Act” can also play a significant role. The second article of the “Taiwan Relations Act” clearly states that if China imposes a blockade on Taiwan, the US government would be highly concerned, meaning that the President and the executive branch would consider whether to intervene directly. From the current political atmosphere, it is evident that the new US President will face strong support from Congress regarding Taiwan. The passage of the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act” during the “China-themed week” is a complementary reinforcement to the “Taiwan Relations Act.”
“The ‘Taiwan Relations Act’ is the top-level statute. Below it, several laws have been passed, such as the ‘Taiwan Travel Act,’ ‘Enhancing Taiwan Security Act,’ up to this ‘Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act.’ The US Congress uses various new bills to strengthen the protection of Taiwan under the ‘Taiwan Relations Act.'”
Earlier this year, US media reported that US intelligence agencies were crafting a report on high-level corruption and hidden wealth within the Chinese Communist Party, including top party leaders and other members.
Su Ziyun pointed out that these are different levels: Congress makes political choices to support Taiwan, while the intelligence department’s duty is to provide information on designated opponents or enemies for the executive branch to consider. With Congress’s requests or support, along with proposals from military or intelligence departments, decisions can be made to counter the Chinese Communist Party with Plan A or Plan B.
However, Su believes that the public disclosure of assets of senior Chinese officials may cause the legitimacy of the Chinese regime to crumble, but the deterrent effect is indirect. The most critical deterrent comes from military aspects.
“The most important strategic axis for the US now is called comprehensive deterrence. Apart from military aspects, economic, diplomatic, intelligence, and other elements form part of the overall deterrent force.”
The issue of whether the US’s “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan has shifted towards “strategic clarity” is a hot topic of discussion. The passage of the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act” during this “China-themed week” raises questions about whether there is a move towards “strategic clarity.”
Su Ziyun stated that the US remains strategically ambiguous towards Taiwan, but now it can be said to be moving towards a clearer direction, indicating not providing guarantees but gradually specifying certain conditions. For example, the US has previously stated that it does not support the Chinese regime’s sovereignty claim over Taiwan through the 1971 resolution UN Resolution 2758 and provides military assistance to Taiwan according to the “Taiwan Relations Act,” which serve as indicators.
Yao Yaoyuan, Professor of International Studies at St. Thomas University in the US, noted to “Dajiyuan” that the US Congress using a “China-themed week” to handle bills regarding China carries significant symbolic importance, signaling a strong warning to the Chinese Communist Party.
He emphasized that one particularly crucial bill is the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act,” which will have a significant impact on countering China since it involves the public disclosure of illegal assets of senior Chinese officials in the US, potentially leading to the freezing of these assets. “For China, especially for most Chinese officials, it will certainly have a deterrent effect.”
Yao Yaoyuan believes that another bill of particular interest to China is the “Protecting American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024,” which prohibits Chinese citizens from purchasing US farmland. This measure is aimed at preventing military surveillance in the region by China.
Additionally, there is “The End Chinese Dominance of Electric Vehicles Act,” which aims to reduce the definition of “Foreign Entity of Concern” for electric vehicles eligible for tax exemptions, excluding cars with crucial components manufactured in China.
Yao Yaoyuan stated that along with the “HKETO Certification Act” or other economic sanctions, collectively, these bills are a comprehensive blow against China, with each measure having its unique impact. However, the effectiveness of the “Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act” is evident – the mere public disclosure of assets of senior Chinese officials in the US will lead to sanctions.
Regarding the issue of whether the US’s policy towards Taiwan is strategically ambiguous or clear, Yao Yaoyuan mentioned that the US policy towards Taiwan is shifting from ambiguity towards clarity, although it may not be entirely clear-cut. True clarity would involve openly signing a mutual security agreement with Taiwan and stating, “If China attacks Taiwan, the US will definitely protect Taiwan.”
He pointed out that the US is aware that making its strategy too clear poses a risk in the cross-strait situation and does not want to engage in a third world war with another nuclear nation. Therefore, the emphasis is on deterrence, with the current policy towards Taiwan balancing between policy ambiguity and clarity, moving towards a clearer stance.
“Its framework remains strategically ambiguous, which means avoiding fixed statements, telling China that it shouldn’t go too far, because the more they escalate, the clearer the US stance becomes.”
With the recent series of arrests of Chinese agents by the US government, including Sun Wen, who previously held multiple senior positions in the New York State Executive Department and state government agencies, the House of Representatives once again voted on a series of bills targeting the “Chinese threat” during a “China-themed week.”
Yao Yaoyuan suggested that following this pace, similar to the US-Soviet confrontation in the past, the US and China may enter a Cold War scenario. “When two nuclear powers confront each other, the ultimate situation will be a Cold War, and it then comes down to whose government collapses first. The likelihood of a democratic country collapsing is naturally low, so it depends on how long China can hold on.”