The Ukrainian Navy is far behind the Russian Navy in terms of both quantity and firepower, but it has managed to sink or damage Russian warships in the Black Sea using cheaper unmanned boats. This has inspired ideas for Taiwan’s defense strategy in the event of a possible conflict with China. Emphasizing the use of unmanned boats and drones at sea could be crucial for Taiwan to counter any potential Chinese invasion and deter Chinese military ambitions.
According to Ukrainian military estimates, one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s ships have been destroyed so far, leaving only lower-value vessels in Crimean ports. This asymmetric warfare tactic serves as a typical case study for modern warfare strategies.
Taiwan is also facing a similar situation and can utilize a large fleet of suicide drones and unmanned boats to compel the Chinese navy to stay away from the Taiwan Strait, serving as a cost-effective deterrent against Chinese aggression.
Recently, Taiwan introduced an autonomous unmanned boat that surpasses Ukraine’s successful models, weighing 20 tons and measuring 55 feet in length, 12 feet in width, with a draft of approximately 3 feet. It can reach speeds exceeding 30 knots (55.56 km/h) and has a range of over 300 miles (555.6 km).
Described by the Liberty Times, the boat can autonomously navigate and return even without GPS and communication device assistance, relying on its onboard computer for calculations. It can perform tasks like mine sweeping, laying mines, and even suicide attacks.
In addition to autonomous unmanned boats, Taiwan is currently developing remotely controlled suicide attack unmanned fast boats expected to be mass-produced by 2026, while underwater unmanned vehicles are reportedly undergoing various tests.
Suzi Yun, the director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, stated that Taiwan’s unmanned equipment, including drones, surface vessels, and underwater drones, has greater potential than Ukraine’s due to Taiwan’s solid manufacturing base and IT industry, providing a strong foundation for developing unmanned warfare equipment.
“Taiwan’s current weakness lies in system integration, but with government support and accelerated development, we can effectively counter Chinese threats,” Suzi added.
Shu Xiaohuang, deputy researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research of Taiwan, mentioned that Taiwan has been developing autonomous surface unmanned boats for some time, emphasizing their surveillance uses with previous high costs. Now, reducing costs is essential for producing larger quantities. These boats can also integrate AI communication capabilities to maintain autonomy in navigation even under severe electronic interference conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
In comparison, the U.S. military has a larger unmanned drone boat combat program, with proposed strategies like the “Hellscape” and the “Replicator” projects.
Last month, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated that if the Chinese invasion fleet crosses the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military will deploy a large number of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface vessels, and aerial drones to inundate the region, allowing time for Taiwan, the U.S., and partner forces to mount a comprehensive response.
“I plan to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hell using a series of classified capabilities. This will make the Chinese military extremely uncomfortable within a month, giving the U.S. time to do other things,” Paparo said.
Shu Xiaohuang mentioned that Ukraine’s use of unmanned boat tactics in the Black Sea has indeed inspired the U.S. Navy’s strategies like Hellscape and drone concepts.
He analyzed that in the hypothetical scenario of a Chinese military invasion on Taiwan, the primary wave would involve amphibious landings, which might use helicopters to transport assault forces, but unable to convey significant heavy equipment. This situation would force China to deploy costly ships continuously transporting large numbers of troops, heavy equipment, and supplies from the sea.
“Ships like the 075 amphibious assault ship, protected by the 055 destroyer and even including aircraft carriers, are unlikely to venture to Taiwan’s eastern waters. When passing through the Bashi Channel, they could face threats; the 075 assault ship can carry thousands of landing troops and may be exposed to missile attacks from Taiwan’s coastal anti-ship missiles, Tuojiang-class missile fast boats, and even suicide drones. Losing one or two would be a significant blow.”
Shu Xiaohuang mentioned that the U.S. Navy even believes that this unmanned drone boat tactic could potentially change the current naval warfare situation. A broader scenario involves using the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) system to turn unmanned boats into highly effective weapons.
Suzi Yun pointed out that while China’s drones are mass-produced based on commercial applications, the U.S. possesses the most advanced military drone technology. The U.S. military has over 8,000 unmanned combat systems across land, sea, air, and marine corps.
He mentioned that in 2018, the U.S. tested nearly 120 small drones released from an F-18 fighter aircraft to autonomously attack a simulated convoy. Last year, the U.S. Air Force Transportation Command commander, General Minihan, stated they are prepared to employ transport and refueling aircraft if a conflict with China arises, capable of deploying hundreds or thousands of drones from airborne containers, with successful tests already conducted.
“In such a scenario, Paparo’s ‘unmanned hell’ vision for China is quite probable. These technologies are already in play and likely in production,” Suzi noted.
Apart from the “Hellscape” mentioned by Paparo, last year, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks also proposed a similar “Replicator” plan. The U.S. aims to develop thousands of “compact, intelligent, low-cost” AI systems for land, sea, and air to help counter China’s military advantage with a large fleet of warships, missiles, and troops.
Some media reports suggest that China could organize a larger-scale drone fleet to counter the U.S.-Taiwan asymmetric drone warfare plan.
However, Shu Xiaohuang believes that the concept of the hellish scenario does not align with China’s combat plan because it would put China’s valuable ships at risk. He analyzed that during Taiwan’s naval operations, main warships would move to the eastern waters, leaving only low-value vessels like Tuojiang-class or Kuang Hua VI missile patrol boats in the western region. Essentially, the western waters would be cleared out, making China’s warships and landing vessels prime targets.
“China’s numerous drones would undoubtedly pose a challenge for Taiwan, such as turning J-6 fighters into drones as decoys to trigger Taiwan’s antiaircraft missiles, disrupting Taiwan’s air defense systems.”
Experts suggest that China’s lightning warfare intentions against Taiwan are unlikely to materialize.
Suzi Yun mentioned that China’s one-sided lightning warfare concept is improbable, as Taiwan is actively preparing to counter various forms of Chinese surprise and decapitation strikes, making the case for a unilateral lightning strike by China challenging to justify.
“Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan’s battlefield involves sea and air combat, making a cross-strait lightning strike extremely difficult. In such circumstances, the idea of a decisive first battle is less realistic, but Taiwan will continue to enhance its defense capabilities,” Suzi highlighted.
Shu Xiaohuang stated that China’s theory of surprise warfare is inherently challenging, with the U.S. emphasizing deterrence by detection in recent years. This strategy strengthens detection and assessment of various Chinese military capabilities through heavy surveillance from drones or low-orbit satellites, ensuring all their actions are closely monitored.
“For instance, when Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected a Chinese rocket force test in Mongolia, it signified Taiwan’s capability to monitor and detect Chinese military activities, preventing sudden attacks,” he remarked.
He also mentioned that some speculated about whether China might exploit gray-zone conflicts to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan. However, the likelihood is low, considering that such small-scale skirmishes differ from large-scale amphibious operations.
While Chinese military pressure on Taiwan appears threatening, much of it may be aimed at enhancing the party leadership’s power and shifting internal pressures.
Shu Xiaohuang stated that China faces significant risks, as a military failure would deal a severe blow to Xi Jinping’s reputation. He suggests that China’s recent military actions in the region may serve to bolster its prestige or divert domestic tensions.
“For instance, the U.S. assault on Iwo Jima during World War II, despite having full naval and air superiority, inflicted heavy casualties. Facing a formidable opponent in both sea and air capabilities, mounting a successful amphibious operation in modern warfare remains uncertain. As Xi Jinping enters his third term, he cannot sustain this approach indefinitely and must eventually transition leadership. Some political adversaries may view instigating an accidental war to challenge his authority, an outcome Xi would find challenging to bear,” Shu Xiaohuang concluded.
Suzi Yun highlighted that if China were to attack Taiwan, the likelihood of military failure is high, posing substantial political risks that could lead to the dissolution of the Chinese Communist Party and potentially threaten Xi Jinping’s leadership. Essentially, an attack on Taiwan could trigger the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party.