On September 25th, the People’s Liberation Army of the Chinese Communist Party test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, attracting widespread attention with this rare move. The Chinese Communist Party also dispatched two aircraft carriers, conducted exercises with the Russian military, and harassed the Taiwan Strait, attempting to raise tensions with the United States and its allies towards a Cold War or even a hot war stance, but struggled to do so and also revealed a “false combat capability.”
The Chinese Communist Party launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on September 25th and released several images. Analysis based on the images indicates that the missile launched was a Dongfeng-31AG missile. According to the missile’s flight path revealed by Chinese media, the missile was presumed to have been launched from near Wenchang in Hainan Province and landed in the South Pacific near Hawaii, which is close to the United States.
The nearest Dongfeng-31 missile brigade of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force to Hainan is likely the 621 Brigade based in Yibin, Sichuan, under Rocket Force Base 62. It is speculated that following orders, a battalion of the 621 Brigade mobilized carrying the missile from Yibin, Sichuan, to Zhanjiang, Guangdong, then by ship to Hainan, rushing to a grassy area near the Wenchang launch center for the final launch. If this speculation is approximately correct, the combat readiness of this launch is significantly compromised.
The distance by road and sea from Yibin, Sichuan to Wenchang, Hainan is about 1,600 kilometers. Even without any obstacles along the way and traveling without breaks overnight, it would take at least 19 hours to arrive. Operating nuclear weapons at this pace is clearly too rudimentary.
When a missile brigade of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force receives orders, they should promptly go to a designated launch site nearby and prepare for launch, rather than traveling hundreds of miles away. Each launch battalion should regularly conduct drills at various designated locations, becoming familiar with the routes and sites, so mobilizing a missile launch vehicle from Yibin, Sichuan to Wenchang, Hainan in real combat scenarios is unimaginable.
It is most likely that the Chinese military deliberately chose Wenchang in Hainan as the launch site, forcing a long-distance journey for the missile launch vehicle of a Rocket Force battalion. To ensure the launch on September 25th, the battalion may have had to depart several days in advance; safely transporting a Dongfeng-31 missile, with a length exceeding 13.5 meters and a weight of at least 42 tons, without any mishaps through each stage is crucial. Following the usual practices of the Chinese military, preparing to launch one missile generally involves preparing 2 to 3 additional missiles as backups.
The Chinese military likely selected Wenchang in Hainan for the launch primarily to reduce the risk of accidents. Even if something goes wrong, there is a good chance that missile debris will land in the sea or on the territories and islands of other countries. If the missile were launched from Sichuan, debris from a Stage 1 rocket falling off could potentially land anywhere, leading to embarrassing situations if captured on camera and shared online, sparking even more rumors in case of a failed launch.
If the Dongfeng-31 missile was indeed launched from Hainan, it implies that the Chinese military, the Rocket Force, may not have complete confidence in the quality and performance of the missile. The Chinese Ministry of National Defense claims to “effectively verify the performance of weapons equipment and troop training levels,” but launching intercontinental missiles from far away Hainan, far from missile bases, does not truly verify the standard operating procedures for nuclear weapons operation; rather, it seems more like a trial launch for the Dongfeng-31 missile.
The Dongfeng-31 missile is a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile developed by China, originally a variant of the JL-2 submarine-launched missile, with a maximum range of 7,200-8,000 kilometers, unable to reach the U.S. mainland and only capable of carrying one nuclear warhead, deployed since 2006. The missile is not advanced, and in 2005, a spy case involving leaked missile technology was exposed.
The Dongfeng-31A missile extends the range to 13,200 kilometers, reaching the U.S. mainland, and capable of carrying 3 warheads; subsequent improved models like the Dongfeng-31AG or Dongfeng-31B made their first appearance at the 2017 Beijing military parade. The recent launch may have been to test the performance of the latest model, the Dongfeng-31AG missile.
According to Japan’s defense white paper, China currently has 86 Dongfeng-31 missiles, the same as in 2023, indicating no continuous increase in production; however, from 62 missiles in 2022, the number increased to 86 in 2023, suggesting new additions are likely the Dongfeng-31AG.
China’s total intercontinental ballistic missiles amount to 140, with 86 Dongfeng-31 missiles comprising the majority. Following the crackdown on various departments like the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, the Equipment Department, the missile development, and production sectors, the quality and performance of various missile types have been questioned. Before the continued mass production of the Dongfeng-31AG, a verification test through a trial launch is likely necessary.
China may not be satisfied with the Dongfeng-31 and has further developed the Dongfeng-41, which made its first appearance at Beijing’s military parade in 2019. The Dongfeng-41 missile claims faster speed, longer range, and the ability to carry 10 multiple warheads, but it is estimated to still carry only 3 nuclear warheads, with the rest being decoys to disrupt anti-aircraft systems.
According to Japan’s defense white paper, the number of China’s Dongfeng-41 missiles increased from 24 in 2023 to 36 in 2024, indicating ongoing production, although the deployment quantity is less than the Dongfeng-31. Before extensive deployment of the Dongfeng-41, a trial launch is equally necessary; therefore, a launch of the Dongfeng-41 missile by China would not be surprising.
In June 2023, the James Martin Center of Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey released a report titled “People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023.” The report revealed that the Chinese Rocket Force is forming 2 Dongfeng-31A brigades, 5 Dongfeng-31AG brigades, and 4 Dongfeng-41 brigades.
China still retains 18 of the early-deployed Dongfeng-5 missiles, which can only be deployed in fixed launch silos, using liquid fuel with long preparation times, making them vulnerable to aerial attacks. The Dongfeng-31 and Dongfeng-41 missiles use solid fuel, enabling mobile deployment and higher survivability compared to the Dongfeng-5.
The U.S. Department of Defense estimates the number of Chinese nuclear warheads to have increased to 500, with a potential to rise to 1,000 in the future. The gap between Chinese and American nuclear capabilities encompasses not only the number of warheads but also the delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons.
Currently, the United States possesses around 3,748 nuclear warheads, slightly fewer than Russia’s stockpile, with 1,550 warheads deployed for operational readiness. The 14 Ohio-class submarines carry 1,090 warheads, accounting for 70.32% of the total; approximately 400 Minuteman III land-based strategic missiles each carrying 1 warhead represent 25.81% of the total; the remaining 60 warheads are deployed on bombers, constituting 3.87%.
The United States mainly relies on strategic nuclear weapons deployed on submarines, easily concealable and prompt for retaliation. Ohio-class submarines can launch 24 Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 12,000 kilometers, capable of launching attacks from any ocean in the world. Each missile can carry up to 8 warheads with the equivalent of 455,000 tons, or up to 14 warheads of 90-100,000-ton equivalents, with the option to carry 5,000-7,000 tons of low-yield tactical warheads.
On June 4, 2024, the U.S. military launched an Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from Vandenberg Base, California. The United States possesses about 675 land-based ballistic missiles, with approximately 400 Minuteman III missiles deployed for military readiness, with a range exceeding 13,000 kilometers. China focuses on land-based strategic nuclear weapons, currently totaling 140 missiles.
The B-2 bomber is the sole aircraft that can deliver nuclear weapons deep into enemy territory. Russian bombers have sufficient range but face difficulties safely approaching the U.S. mainland and would be intercepted near Alaska. Chinese bombers theoretically could reach Guam and, to approach Alaska, would need to take off from Russia.
China also operates 72 submarine-launched missiles on 6 submarines; the original JL-2 missiles had inadequate range, but the new JL-3 missiles have a range of 10,000 kilometers and have been in service without public testing. The United States has monitored three test launches of the Chinese JL-3 missile.