With the decrease in soybean planting by American farmers and a shift towards feed and energy crops, it is expected that the United States’ corn exports will reach a historical high.
According to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture in September, the international export volume of corn from the United States is projected to increase to over 2.97 billion bushels (equivalent to 75.5 million metric tons) by the end of the sales year ending in August 2026, surpassing the previous year’s record of 2.83 billion bushels of corn sales.
The USDA had predicted in August that the U.S. corn exports for this year would set a historic record. The September report showed an even more optimistic outlook compared to August, with the projected corn export volume increased by another 100 million bushels.
Data from the department revealed that as of September 18, there were over 20 million metric tons of unfinished corn export contracts. Approximately half of these unfinished contracts were with Mexico, Colombia, and other Western Hemisphere countries, while Japan, South Korea, and other Asian markets accounted for about 20%.
Genichiro Higaki, from the Tokyo-based Market Risk Advisory, told Nikkei Asia that Southeast Asian regions like South Korea are shifting their main ingredients for livestock feed from wheat to corn due to the higher cost-effectiveness of corn.
Unlike soybeans, the impact of the trade war on American corn is relatively minor. Until 2024, the amount of U.S. corn purchased by China accounted for only a small portion of total U.S. corn exports, with American corn customers being more diverse.
Countries like Japan and Vietnam have pledged to purchase more American agricultural products during trade negotiations with the Trump administration, which would further benefit U.S. corn exports.
Against the backdrop of the trade war, American farmers have been reducing soybean planting and increasing the cultivation of feed crops such as corn.
In February, the agricultural lending institution CoBank predicted that in 2025, American farmers would plant 94.55 million acres of corn, an increase of about 4% from 2024, while the soybean cultivation area would decrease to 84 million acres, a 3.6% decrease from the previous year.
Farmers typically make planting decisions in the winter, ahead of the planting season in April and May, for seed and fertilizer procurement. However, some growers have delayed planting decisions until the spring due to low prices of agricultural products and trade uncertainties.
Moreover, the demand for corn for biofuel in South America is also increasing.
In August, the Brazilian government passed a law increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, leading to a rise in domestic demand for corn ethanol. Brazil is the world’s third-largest corn producer, and this year’s corn output is expected to nearly reach a record 131 million tons.
Naoyuki Omoto from the Japanese grain consultancy firm Green County stated that Brazil’s demand for corn for ethanol production and feed is on the rise, with domestic corn prices higher than export prices, resulting in higher profits for selling to domestic buyers. This indicates that Brazil’s corn exports may decline, potentially further boosting U.S. corn exports.
Genichiro Higaki of the Market Risk Advisory firm cautioned that it is still unclear whether the corn exports and demand can keep pace with supply growth, leading many observers to adopt a cautious stance on the market outlook.