The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that the autumn corn harvest in 2025 will reach a historic high, with exports and stocks rising simultaneously, demonstrating the resilience of agricultural productivity and supply in the United States.
On Friday, September 12, the USDA released its monthly report, projecting a total corn production in the United States this year to reach 16.814 billion bushels, not only breaking the record set in 2023 but also covering 90 million acres, the largest scale since 1933. This record indicates that American farmers have successfully expanded their cultivation areas and maintained high yields despite rising input costs and climate challenges.
Although the average yield per acre was revised downward from 188.8 bushels to 186.7 bushels as estimated last month, the overall production was adjusted upwards due to a significant increase in harvest area. The USDA expects the end-of-season stocks for the 2025/26 period to reach 2.11 billion bushels, the highest level since the 2018/19 season.
Analysts point out that favorable weather conditions during the summer have been conducive to crop growth, with only isolated incidents of drought and diseases in certain areas towards the end of the season. Susan Stroud, founder of No Bull Agriculture, told Reuters, “Despite a slight decrease in yield per acre, the vast planting area identified by the USDA has led to a record-breaking overall harvest.”
This bountiful harvest is expected to bring significant benefits to the livestock and ethanol industries by helping to reduce feed and raw material costs. The record supply is also anticipated to drive U.S. corn exports to new highs.
In terms of soybeans, the USDA estimates a production of 4.301 billion bushels in 2025, with end-of-season stocks at 220 million bushels. While exports to China have not yet recovered, ample domestic supply leaves room for future exports.
The United States is the world’s largest producer and exporter of corn, with a high degree of agricultural mechanization and stable policy support. Over the years, it has played a critical role in food security and energy supply (such as ethanol), exerting significant influence on global grain prices and market dynamics.
Overall, Friday’s report reflects that U.S. agriculture continues to maintain its leading position in global food production under multiple pressures, providing important support for agricultural economy and export prospects.