Understanding How Trump Stealthily Decided to Strike Iran

On Friday night, while US President Trump was enjoying himself at a golf club in New Jersey, a group of B-2 stealth bombers loaded with a massive 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator was preparing to take off from an airbase in Missouri, en route to Iran to strike the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities.

At almost the same time, another group of B-2 bombers flew towards Guam in the Western Pacific. This was part of a “military decoy” strategy of the Trump administration, as the President demanded complete secrecy regarding his major decisions.

According to CNN, those who saw Trump on Friday night mentioned that he appeared relaxed and jovial while accompanying OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to the club restaurant for a new member event.

“I hope his judgment on artificial intelligence is correct,” Trump jokingly pointed at his guest at one point.

Less than 24 hours later, Trump, wearing a red hat with the slogan “Make America Great Again,” arrived at the White House Situation Room in the basement to witness the operation codenamed “Operation Midnight Hammer,” which was played out in real-time on monitors in the room.

Hours later, during a speech in the Cross Hall of the White House, he declared, “Tonight, I can report to the world that this strike was a brilliant military victory. Iran, this Middle East bully, must now behave peacefully. If they do not, future strikes will be larger and more challenging.”

Looking back to the previous Thursday, it was then when Trump instructed spokesman Levitt to announce a two-week ultimatum for Iran to return to the negotiating table before deciding on a strike.

Senior US officials claim that the decision to delay the strike for two weeks seemed to align with the intention of “shifting focus” of the action; however, multiple media reports suggest that Trump only gave the final approval for the attack on Saturday.

On Sunday, US Defense Secretary Haggis and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine jointly stated, “This plan has been months and weeks in the making, so we could be ready when the US President issued the order,” “This required a high precision level. It involved cover and the highest level of operational security.”

In early June, Trump, along with members of the National Security Council, began serious discussions on potential strike options against Iran during a weekend retreat at Camp David. At that time, CIA Director John Ratcliffe briefed Trump briefly on the US assessment, indicating Israel was prepared to immediately strike Iran.

It is known that Trump’s option to align with Israel had been prepared months in advance, and presidential advisors had already reached a consensus on Trump’s course of action.

In the week leading up to the final decision to dispatch US stealth bombers and Navy submarines to strike Iran’s three nuclear facilities, Trump held briefings with the National Security Council in the Situation Room daily to discuss attack plans and weigh potential consequences.

During the secret meetings, Trump had two main concerns: one, that US attacks could decisively destroy heavily fortified nuclear facilities in Iran, including the underground Fordow uranium enrichment facility; and two, that any action he took would not drag the US into a protracted and deadly war.

Regarding the first point, officials were confident in the ability of US bunker-busting bombs to penetrate Iran’s nuclear facilities. But concerning the second issue of a protracted war, officials found it challenging to assure the President that Iran’s retaliatory actions would not entangle the US in a new quagmire.

“As directed and clearly stated by the President, this is by no means indefinite,” Haggis stated on Sunday, “This does not mean it limits our ability to respond. If necessary, we will respond.”

In his national televised address on Saturday evening following the strike, Trump warned that if Iran retaliated, the US would launch “larger-scale” strikes in the future.

Back in April, Trump issued a final ultimatum to Iran regarding the potential nuclear deal, warning Iranian authorities to reach an agreement within 60 days, by mid-June. Simultaneously, Trump urged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to hold off on striking Iran to allow for negotiation time and space.

In mid-April, the US and Iran held the first round of talks in Oman, chaired by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. While there were some optimistic signs after the talks, progress towards a genuine nuclear deal was minimal.

On June 8, with less than a week remaining to the 60-day deadline, Trump met with advisors at Camp David to consider various potential scenarios regarding Iran. The next day, Trump had a phone call with Netanyahu.

Several weeks earlier, Netanyahu had informed a group of US lawmakers that Israel would strike Iran, without seeking US permission. 61 days after Trump’s ultimatum, Israel launched unprecedented strikes on Iran, targeting Iran’s nuclear program and military leaders.

“I told Iran – you know, I gave them (the deadline), you may not know that, but I gave them a warning of 60 days, today is day 61,” Trump told CNN as Israel’s airstrikes began.

On Friday, following European leaders’ meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Geneva, Trump refused to request Netanyahu to halt the strikes on Iran, a condition for Iran and the US to sit down for negotiations.

That afternoon, while en route to the New Jersey club, Trump told reporters that the two-week deadline was the “longest” timeframe he could afford, hinting at an earlier decision.

Three US officials informed Axios that Trump’s efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict diplomatically faced resistance, with reports claiming Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei suspended radio communications out of fear of Israeli assassination.

Turkey initially proposed a meeting between US and Iranian officials last week, including Trump’s personal involvement in ceasefire talks. Sources added that this message was originally intended for Khamenei.

However, unable to establish contact with Khamenei, Trump approved the strikes on Iran’s three nuclear facilities on Saturday.

Prior to the Saturday attack, the US had informed Israel in advance of the strikes. According to an informed source, Netanyahu held a five-hour-long meeting with senior Israeli officials that continued throughout the US attack.

CNN reported that some Gulf partners were also notified by the US, preparing to strike Iran in the coming days, but with no specific details on targets and timelines. The information was conveyed verbally, with some Gulf partners briefed at a meeting at the White House.

Multiple sources revealed that Trump and his team had made contact with senior GOP members of Congress before the Saturday strike, while Democratic leadership was only informed after the bombs had been dropped. Haggis stated on Sunday that Congressional leaders were informed immediately after the planes left Iranian airspace.

Axios reported that within 48 hours before the US struck the Fordow nuclear fuel enrichment plant, the Israeli Air Force had weakened Iran’s air defenses, all according to President Trump’s request.

US and Israeli officials told Axios that the Trump administration had informed Netanyahu the previous week to clear the path for American aircraft and to begin solidifying plans for the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers to strike Fordow.

It was reported that Trump instructed Netanyahu to destroy as many of Iran’s southern air defense capabilities as possible to pave the way for the B-2 bombers and penetrator bombs.

An Israeli official stated that the US had a specific target list that needed to be destroyed, and Israel confirmed these defense systems had been hit.

Israel announced that in the days leading up to the US airstrikes, they had destroyed over 40% of Iran’s missile launch sites.

US officials noted that during the Saturday strike, as B-2 bombers approached Iranian airspace, US fighter jets provided escort and assisted in neutralizing Iran’s air defenses.