On September 19th, a monitoring organization of the United Nations released a report stating that Russia’s airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy network may have violated international humanitarian law. This report comes at a time when Ukraine is preparing for what is expected to be its most difficult winter since the Russian invasion.
During the invasion, Russia reportedly launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Ukraine’s electricity production, transmission, and distribution facilities. The first major wave of airstrikes occurred in the fall and winter of 2022, several months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the airstrikes have continued and intensified significantly since March of this year. Each wave of airstrikes has resulted in power outages in Ukrainian cities for hours, sometimes even lasting for weeks.
The report from the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) focused on nine waves of airstrikes between March and August of this year. It stated that there are reasonable grounds to believe that various aspects of the military actions targeting Ukraine’s civilian electricity and heat production and transmission infrastructure have violated fundamental principles of international humanitarian law.
HRMMU stated that they visited seven power plants that were damaged or destroyed due to the attacks, as well as 28 communities affected by the airstrikes. Ukraine has labeled Russia’s attacks on its energy system as war crimes. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for four Russian officials and military officers for their involvement in bombing civilian electricity infrastructure.
Moscow, on the other hand, insists that power infrastructure is a legitimate military target and denies the accusations against its officials as irrelevant. HRMMU emphasized that these attacks pose risks to Ukraine’s water supply, sanitation and hygiene, heating and hot water provision, public health, education, and the broader economy.
The report highlighted issues in urban areas where most households are connected to centralized heating and hot water systems. In Kyiv, nearly 95% of residents rely on centralized underground heating systems that require electric pumps to deliver hot water to upper floors of buildings. Without emergency power supply, hundreds of thousands of city residents could be left without heating.
HRMMU cited experts’ estimates that Ukraine could face power outages of 4 to 18 hours per day this winter. The report also mentioned that energy-related issues were the second-largest reason for Ukrainians fleeing the country during the summer.
Furthermore, a report released by the International Energy Agency projected that Ukraine’s electricity supply shortage could reach 6 gigawatts (GW) this winter, accounting for around one-third of the expected peak demand.
The report indicated that Ukraine’s power generation capacity dropped by over 2 GW during the summer, falling below the peak demand of 12 GW. It is anticipated that peak electricity demand this winter could increase to 18.5 GW. Even with nuclear power plant maintenance restored and importing 1.7 GW of power from European neighboring countries, Ukraine’s supply gap could still reach 6 GW, equivalent to the annual peak demand of Denmark.
The report warned, “Further attacks on infrastructure, unforeseen equipment failures, and missed maintenance cycles increase additional risks.” Currently, Ukraine can meet its natural gas demand through domestic production and storage, but increased imports may be required if winter temperatures drop below average levels.
The transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom for natural gas supplies is set to expire by the end of this year, and Ukraine has expressed reluctance to extend the agreement. Additional natural gas supplies will need to flow in from Central and Eastern Europe. The report also mentioned that Ukraine’s neighboring country, Moldova, faces risks of natural gas and power supply disruptions. While Moldova no longer directly relies on Russian natural gas to meet its regional demands, two-thirds of its electricity comes from power plants in separatist-controlled areas supported by Russia.
The report highlighted that Ukraine and Moldova share transmission capacity with the European continent. If Moldova experiences power shortages, both countries will need to reach an agreement on distributing imported power from other countries. The report stressed that Ukraine needs to import around 600 million cubic meters of natural gas in September and October to reach its gas storage target before November 1st.