In the past few weeks, there have been shifts in President Trump’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, and there have been significant frictions between NATO and Russia both on the ground and in the air.
In early September, Russia launched a large number of drones that intruded into Polish airspace, even hitting residential buildings, causing significant damage. At least 13 Russian drones invaded Polish airspace that day. This was not accidental; some drones penetrated hundreds of kilometers into Polish territory, even falling near the northern city of Gdansk.
Shortly after on September 19th, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace and lingered over the Gulf of Finland for a total of 12 minutes. Under NATO command, Estonia, Finland, and Sweden scrambled fighter jets in response. Sweden’s Gripen fighter jets closely monitored the Russian MiG-31 and even took photos.
From the photos taken by the Swedes, it was observed that one of the four racks under the wings of the MiG-31 fighter jet only carried three missiles, with one rack empty. Some joked that the Russian Air Force was running out of missiles, as the fighter jets couldn’t even take off with full missile load for such a crucial mission.
Then on September 24th, multiple incidents of drone intrusions occurred in Denmark’s airspace, leading to the temporary closure of two airports and affecting a military base.
Norwegian authorities seized a drone near Oslo airport. During the same night, an unidentified drone was found near an Air Force base in Denmark, which is the home of Danish Air Force’s F-35 and F-16 fighter jets.
Moreover, on the following Friday night, drones were spotted flying over Denmark’s largest military base, Karup. Karup Air Force Base hosts all of Denmark’s helicopters and airspace surveillance units.
Continuing the trend, on Saturday morning, multiple unidentified drones were discovered near Norway’s Ørland Air Force Base, home to Norway’s fleet of F-35s, serving as a key defense hub against Russia. Norwegian officials stated that at least two drones had flown for about an hour in the Ørland vicinity’s no-fly zone.
On the same day, the Danish Air Force detected a Russian Alligator-class landing ship near the Danish straits; however, it is not yet confirmed if the warship is directly related to the appearance of the drones.
Aside from provoking Europe, Russia has now turned its attention to Alaska in the United States. On September 25th, the Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing two Tu-95MS strategic bombers accompanied by multiple Su-35S and Su-30SM fighter jets flying over the Bering Strait, entering the US Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone. In response, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) scrambled several aircraft to intercept and track the Russian aircraft until they left the ADIZ.
The Tu-95 strategic bomber, nicknamed “Bear” by NATO, is a long-range strategic bomber developed in the 1950s and is the Russian counterpart to the US B-52 bomber. Capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the Russian strategic bomber fleet has been significantly reduced this year due to incidents in Ukraine involving the destruction of advanced Russian bombers such as Tu-160 “Blackjack” and Tu-22 “Backfire,” along with the Tu-95, diminishing Russia’s strategic bomber capabilities by at least a third.
In response, the US Air Force deployed an E-3 Sentry, four F-16 fighter jets, and four KC-135 tankers to actively identify and intercept Russian aircraft that intruded into the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone.
Russia is not only provoking the European Union and the United States but also now engaging with Japan. On September 24th, a Russian Navy Northern Fleet submarine “Vepr” was spotted near Japan, accompanied by the cruiser “Varyag” and a rescue tugboat. These vessels were sailing about 24 miles northeast of Hokkaido, marking the first time the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force discovered a North Wind-class submarine equipped with ballistic missiles near Japan. The Northern Fleet submarine “Vepr” is currently Russia’s most advanced nuclear submarine, with eight in service and two under construction. Five of them are part of Russia’s Pacific Fleet.
The Japanese Self-Defense Forces dispatched a missile boat and a P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft to monitor these vessels.
In response to Russia’s continuous provocations against NATO in Europe, NATO has taken actions like Turkey deploying an advanced early warning aircraft to Lithuania, while the US Navy’s E-6 Mercury command and communications relay aircraft recently landed at a German airbase. They came to Europe to participate in the upcoming Operation Sovereign Skies military exercise at the end of September.
In the early hours of September 24th, two B-2 stealth bombers ascended from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to kick off the anticipated exercise. The B-2 bombers flew from west to east across the US, refueled mid-air by a KC-46 tanker over the Atlantic. They arrived at a position in the northwest of Spain and were refueled by a KC-35 tanker from a British airbase. After completion, they returned to the US along the planned route, with another KC-135 tanker refueling them over Maine. During the exercise, the US also deployed an E-6 Mercury reconnaissance/command aircraft for patrol exercises between the UK and the Faroe Islands.
Aside from air exercises, the US also dispatched the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier to participate with NATO allies in the Neptune Strike 2025 military exercises in the North Sea. The exercise commenced on September 21st and concluded on September 26th. Participating ships included the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, USS Mount Whitney command ship, Turkish amphibious assault ship Anadolu, Italian Navy’s landing helicopter dock ship San Giorgio, as well as numerous destroyers, frigates, and submarines.
The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is currently escorted by three destroyers, including the Mahan and Churchill. The carrier strike group arrived in Oslo, Norway, on September 16th. The USS Gerald R. Ford and the German Navy’s Hamburg frigate, a Norwegian Nansen-class frigate, and the French Navy’s Aquitaine frigate participated in joint exercises within the Arctic Circle.
The Ford-class aircraft carrier is the most advanced carrier in the world, with a full load displacement exceeding 100,000 tons, equipped with two advanced A1B reactors, highly automated operations leading to 50% fewer crew members, yet a threefold increase in power generation. The pressurized water reactor can serve for 50 years without the need to replace nuclear fuel rods. The Ford carrier is also equipped with electromagnetic catapults and arresting systems, significantly boosting the carrier’s aircraft launch capacity to 180-220 sorties per day.
The US Navy’s deployment of the Ford-class carrier to Norway naturally carries implications of deterring Russia. During the UN General Assembly, when asked by reporters whether NATO should shoot down Russian invading aircraft, Trump responded affirmatively. Facing Russia’s continual provocations, NATO should adopt a firmer stance. Currently, along the Polish and Baltic fronts, NATO has deployed significant forces, with Germany deploying Patriot air defense systems, the Netherlands pre-positioning F-35s in Poland, while Italy and Turkey provided early warning aircraft. Additionally, with the solid air forces of Sweden, Norway, and Poland themselves, including a substantial number of F-16 and Gripen fighter jets, as well as Norway’s newly operational F-35s, there is significant military strength to intercept invading Russian aircraft.
In 2015, a Russian Su-24 attack aircraft intruded into Turkish airspace while deployed in Syria, ignoring Turkish warnings, resulting in Turkey decisively downing the Russian aircraft, resulting in the pilot’s death. Following this incident, Russia issued strong condemnations and imposed economic sanctions. However, these sanctions against Turkey were revoked shortly afterward.
In dealing with some who only respond to force, it’s best to hit them hard from the start. The more you try to negotiate with them, the more they will take advantage.
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