Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau announced early this morning (3rd) the formation of Tropical Storm Mun, which poses no direct impact on Taiwan’s weather. Meteorological experts pointed out that there is a tropical disturbance near the Philippines, and whether it will develop into a typhoon requires continued close monitoring.
According to the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, the tropical depression that was originally located southeast of Japan has developed into the mild Tropical Storm Mun, designated as the 3rd storm of the season (internationally named MUN), as of 2 a.m. today. It is currently situated 2,440 kilometers east of Taipei in the sea and moving north-northwest before turning north, with no direct impact on Taiwan.
Associate Professor Wu Derong from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan and a contributor to the “Sky Machine Classroom” column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation, stated that the latest models indicate that on the 6th and 7th, the outer moisture influence of the tropical depression turned mild typhoon could lead to slightly increased cloud cover and a slight decrease in temperature across various regions, bringing with it a chance of localized showers. However, the simulation of the tropical system is still being adjusted, and it is advised to stay updated with the latest information.
Wu Derong further explained that according to the latest (2 a.m. on the 3rd) projected path map from the Weather Bureau, Tropical Storm Mun had formed east of Iwo Jima at 2 a.m. this morning and is expected to move northeastward, away from Japan.
Moreover, Wu Derong pointed out that the latest simulation map from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as of 8 p.m. on the 2nd showed another tropical system slowly developing in the northern part of Luzon. The simulated path is initially influenced by the Pacific high pressure system, leading it westward before passing Luzon. Afterward, the Pacific high pressure weakens, transitioning to a southwest wind direction, heading northeastward, entering a saddle area, where the movement speed slows down. Subsequently, it shifts westward due to the influence of the high pressure system to the north. Due to uncertainties regarding the generation location, the saddle area, and the strength of the high pressure system, the simulated path is described as unpredictable, similar to scattered flower petals falling from the heavens, with potential threats.
He also mentioned that the latest simulation map from the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) showed similar results. As the models will continue to be adjusted, close monitoring of the situation is advised.