Amidst the continuous decline of the Chinese economy, two Chinese scholars, Fu Peng and Gao Shanwen, have pointed out the seriousness of the economy during their speeches, which have gone viral online. However, prior to the official Central Economic Work Conference scheduled date, the two speeches have disappeared from the tightly controlled Chinese internet. Their WeChat and short video social media accounts have been blocked.
On December 3, at the Guotou Securities’ 2025 Investment Strategy Conference held in Shenzhen, Gao Shanwen, Director of the Guotou Industrial Research Institute and Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, delivered a speech.
Several domestic Chinese platforms live-streamed Gao Shanwen’s public speech. He mentioned that his conclusions may seem counterintuitive, but he summarized the post-epidemic Chinese society in three sentences: “lively elderly, lifeless young people, and desperate middle-aged people.” He also assessed that the domestic Gross Domestic Product may have been overestimated by ten percentage points over the past three years.
Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Dongbei Securities, was even more direct during his speech at the HSBC Private Wealth Shanghai Customer Shareholder Meeting on November 24. He stated that China’s economy had already encountered “major problems” before the 2019 epidemic and that in recent years, the situation had not only not improved but had worsened.
He bluntly stated that China’s economic problems are much more serious than what meets the eye, with the core issue being insufficient effective consumption. The decline in consumption capacity is not a short-term phenomenon but a structural transformation. The most significant challenge at present is the sharp contraction of the middle class.
Fu Peng also boldly criticized the public opinion environment, saying, “Anyone who says it’s not feasible is a traitor, anyone who says it’s not feasible is unpatriotic, and anyone who says it’s not feasible will be attacked online,” “What’s truly frightening is that if everyone stops speaking up, at the critical moment, all the feedback forms a fallacy leading to incorrect decision-making even at the leadership level, which would be disastrous. Eventually, who is responsible for misleading the country and the people, history will judge correctly.”
Rumors briefly circulated online that Fu Peng had been summoned, but both Fu Peng and Dongbei Securities promptly denied it.
The speeches of Fu Peng and Gao Shanwen briefly circulated on mainland Chinese social media platforms, sparking discussion. However, a search by the Epoch Times reporter on December 7 found that some screenshots of the speeches, previously visible a few days ago, have been almost completely deleted, and no user comments were found.
Searching online, it was discovered that according to a report by the Eastern Fortune on December 5, on December 5, the WeChat platform indicated that the video account “Fu Peng’s Financial World” of Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Dongbei Securities, had been banned from following, and there was a live broadcast preview scheduled for December 9 at the top of the video account.
Nandu Bay Financial Company also stated on the same day that the WeChat video account “Fu Peng’s Financial World” of Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Dongbei Securities, had been banned from following. In response, the reporter attempted to contact Fu Peng directly, but as of now, the phone has been unreachable.
However, the above-mentioned reports from mainland media have also been deleted.
Epoch Times reporters confirmed the above situation but were unable to find any contact information for Fu Peng. Some individual netizens on Weibo discussed the suspension of Gao Shanwen and Fu Peng’s accounts.
On December 6, Reuters reported that their attempts to follow the public account of Gao Shanwen, Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, on WeChat or to contact him had been blocked by the platform, notifying that the account had violated rules. Gao Shanwen’s phone calls also went unanswered. Reuters has sought comments from Tencent, the operator of WeChat.
Similarly, the video social media account of Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Dongbei Securities, was also blocked. Reuters could not find Fu Peng’s contact information. The Cyberspace Administration of China did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comments.
The Chinese economy has remained stagnant this year, with the ongoing real estate crisis, high local government debt, and low consumer spending. Since late September, the authorities have announced several stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and the introduction of a 1 trillion yuan debt swap plan, but the results have been minimal. When local governments receive the “debt swap” funds, they tend to prioritize solving high-interest short-term debts rather than injecting directly into the economy. Disappointment in the market is growing, and observers are still waiting to see if the authorities will implement actual market rescue measures.
Bloomberg reported on December 3 that the Central Economic Work Conference of the Chinese Communist Party will be held next Wednesday (December 11).
It is generally believed that the Politburo of the CCP Central Committee will convene a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2025, determining the major policy directions for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The blocking of Fu Peng and Gao Shanwen on social media may be related to the repeated emphasis on promoting the “bright economic outlook” by Xi Jinping, the leader of the CCP, and Cai Qi, a member of the Political Bureau who is in charge of propaganda.
Over the past year, many Chinese economists have been censored for expressing views that do not align with the official stance. This includes Liu Jipeng, former Dean of the School of Business at China University of Political Science and Law, Dan Bin, Chairman of Shenzhen Eastern Port Investment Management Company, finance blogger Hong Rong, founder of investment research institution Golong Hui Chen Shouhong, renowned commentator Shuipi, economist Ma Guangyuan, financial writer Wu Xiaobo, former senior investment consultant at Zhongjin Fortune Securities Xu Xiaoyu, and others.