In the upcoming November elections in the United States, five states’ legislatures are most likely to see a turnaround: Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The control of state legislatures will determine the ability to influence the redistricting and voting systems in the future. Republicans and Democrats are in fierce competition to secure seats in these state legislatures, constantly breaking campaign spending records.
Republicans continue to dominate in fundraising. The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and the Republican Governors Leadership Fund (SGLF) have raised over $47 million in this round, just a part of the overall Republican interests expenditure. Despite some growth for Democrats in 2022, Republicans still control the majority of state legislatures.
According to Politico, Democrats are aiming to invest more money in state legislative elections than ever before. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has set a budget goal of $60 million for this round and has raised nearly $28 million so far.
From the 2024 presidential election to various state elections, Arizona is considered the most crucial state. The state legislature elections there are among the fiercest competitions, with Republicans holding only a slight majority in both the state House and Senate. If Democrats win the majority in both houses, it would be the first time the party has had full control statewide since 1966.
Democrats see Arizona as their best opportunity for a turnaround this time, setting targets in 5 districts in Maricopa County and surrounding areas, as well as at least 3 districts in Southern and rural Arizona.
Democrats have been using abortion issues to attract voters. In April, the state supreme court reinstated a Civil War-era law banning all exceptions for abortions. The legislature quickly moved to repeal the law. Democrats may attack Republican lawmakers opposing the repeal or mobilize voters using this issue during the campaign.
Republicans are eager to regain control of the Michigan State House to overturn the Democrat’s reversal of the entire legislature in the 2022 midterm elections.
Democrats currently hold a 56-54 advantage in the state House and a 20-18 advantage in the state Senate in Michigan, where Senate elections are not scheduled this year. Republicans believe Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has made Michigan too much like liberal California.
Former President Trump has a strong approval rating in Michigan, and Republicans hope to capitalize on this momentum in the state elections.
Republicans are defending their narrow majority in the state House and Senate to prevent New Hampshire from becoming a major target for a Democratic breakthrough.
Democrats are focusing on the state House, as Republicans unexpectedly won the majority of seats in 2020, currently holding 199 out of 400 seats.
Democrats are striving to maintain complete control of state legislatures, a major victory in the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats hold a 70-64 advantage in the state House. All 134 state House seats are up for election.
However, in the 2024 session, Democrats have not achieved legislative success similar to previous levels, such as failing to pass bills like a public infrastructure borrowing plan.
The Democratic full control of Minnesota may disappear in November. Besides the risk of losing the state House, the Senate is currently deadlocked at 33-33.
It is the only state where legislative seats are evenly split – Democrats control the House with a one-seat margin, while Republicans have a six-seat advantage in the Senate.
Pennsylvania is another presidential battleground state. There is also a fiercely competitive U.S. Senate race which may impact down-ballot votes.
A series of special elections due to retirements gave Republicans multiple opportunities to make gains, but they failed to do so.
Democrats are eyeing opportunities for a turnaround in the Philadelphia area, while Republicans are focusing on Western Pennsylvania, which is home to coal mining and old industrial towns that supported Trump.
As the elections draw near, the competition in these key states is intensifying. Whichever side wins more state legislative seats could usher in a new era of power.