Despite the slowdown in inflation in the United States and the stabilization or even decrease in prices of many commodities, eggs are a notable exception. Over the past two years, egg prices have been steadily rising, with the surge in avian flu and the upcoming holiday season making the egg price issue even more serious.
According to the Consumer Price Index, while the prices of energy dropped by 4.9% year-on-year in October, the prices of eggs in grocery stores increased by 30.4% over the same period.
CNN reported that Stew Leonard Jr., CEO of the family-owned grocery chain “Steward Leonard’s,” said, “The overall cost of Thanksgiving dinner this year is similar to last year, except for eggs.”
Quoting Emily Metz, President and CEO of the American Egg Board, CNN mentioned, “The holidays are always the highest retail sales season of the year because of the holidays, baking, cooking, and entertaining, all of which require extra eggs.”
As demand increases, egg supply is decreasing. Since January 2022, the avian flu transmitted by wild birds has been troubling farmers and egg supplies. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, since then, the virus has killed 108 million poultry, with 75 million of them being egg-laying. This has impacted 8% of the supply in the United States.
Last month, cases of avian flu began to surge again, with the flu causing the death of 2.8 million egg-laying poultry in major egg-producing states such as Oregon, Utah, and Washington. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates a loss of around 60 million eggs.
According to The Washington Post, Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said, “So far, avian flu has been the biggest factor affecting egg prices.”
Nelson added that the challenge of avian flu lies in its constant change and variation, causing outbreaks to stress the supply and lead to price fluctuations as long as it remains unpredictable.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture stated in a press release that egg prices are expected to rise by the end of 2024 and early 2025, indicating that high costs may trouble consumers as they enter the new year.
As of November 15th, the wholesale price of a dozen large eggs in a carton at the New York wholesale market was $4.23, compared to $2.43 during the same period last year, representing a 54% increase.
With significant increases in wholesale prices, grocery stores need to decide on the final retail price for eggs. Balancing the ability to earn typical profits while not driving customers away to competitors is a delicate balance.
“Morton Williams,” a chain of 17 grocery stores in New York City, saw wholesale egg prices rise by $2 within a few weeks in October. Moreover, once egg prices go up, they are difficult to lower again.
“It’s out of control. Eggs used to be very cheap. They’ve skyrocketed in price, and when the prices come down, they’re still higher than before,” said Steve Schwartz, Sales and Marketing Director at “Morton Williams.”
Schwartz mentioned that on October 2nd, they bought eggs from suppliers for $2.16 per dozen, which rose to $4.28 per dozen by October 28th.
The last time egg supply faced major disruptions was at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, during the initial outbreak of the avian flu virus, when the average cost of a dozen eggs soared to a record-breaking $4.82.
There are concerns that the continued rise in egg prices may lead to a chain reaction. For example, many products contain eggs, which could increase the costs of these products, subsequently impacting their prices.