On July 9, 2025, President Trump of the United States sent letters to 14 countries announcing the implementation of a new round of punitive tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% starting from August 1. This decision marks a revival of the tariff policy proposed in April and mainly targets Asian countries. Experts believe that this move is not only pressuring trade partners but also aimed at curbing Asia from becoming a transshipment point for Chinese goods.
In the letter, Trump stated unequivocally that any attempt to evade tariffs through third-party transshipment would face higher tax rates and warned of more severe penalties for such evasion.
Analysis shows that among the 14 countries involved, many are from Asia. Countries like Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, which are seen as “processing places” or transshipment hubs for Chinese goods, will face punitive tariffs ranging from 36% to 40%. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are being hit with 25% tariffs due to trade imbalances.
Trump emphasized, “The United States will no longer tolerate long-term trade deficits and unfair trade practices. Our goal is to eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers and restore true fair trade.” He also indicated room for negotiations by suggesting that if countries make concessions on tariffs and trade barriers, the US would consider adjusting the rates.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview with CNN, clarified that the tariff increase is not an immediate punishment for all countries but rather sets a negotiation deadline. If no agreement is reached by midnight on July 9, the equivalent tariff levels will be reinstated on August 1. Bessent hinted that countries like the EU and Taiwan, which have not yet disclosed their lists, may receive updates within the next 48 hours.
Explaining why the initial list includes these 14 countries, sources revealed to Central News Agency that these countries are deemed by the US as having no progress in negotiations, being unsuccessful, or not worth continuing discussions with. Hence, they have been subjected to higher equivalent tariff rates, mostly reverting to the higher numbers from early April.
Regarding why Asia is the primary target of these tariff actions, Professor Fan Jiazhong from National Taiwan University’s Department of Economics pointed out in an interview that while Trump did not explicitly name China, the core of this policy is to “block the Chinese Communist Party.”
“The CCP has long used Southeast Asian countries as processing places, such as Chinese companies establishing shell companies in Vietnam to transship Chinese-made goods for export to the US. The US imposing a 40% tariff on transshipment is a clear target at such behavior,” Fan explained.
Fan underscored that if any country negotiating with the US is viewed as a severe processing place, the US will inevitably introduce preventive clauses. He noted, “Both Taiwan and Vietnam are listed as severely processing places.”
Following the agreement between Vietnam and the US on July 3, Vietnam faced a 20% tariff (general exports) and a 40% tariff for transshipped goods. According to the equivalent tariff policy announced by the US in April, Vietnamese products exported to the US would face a 46% tariff, with the measure originally set to take effect this week.
“美国将逐步封堵这些漏洞.”
Another expert, Wang Guochen, a research assistant in the First Research Institute of the Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research, also believes that countries in the backyard of China becoming targets of the highest tariffs are “entirely expected.”
He told Epoch Times, “Even if these countries attempt transshipment through Thailand, they will face double tariff barriers. Due to Thailand having its own anti-dumping duties against China, coupled with the US’s 40% punitive tariff, the cost of Chinese products is too high, making it almost unfeasible.”
Wang commented that this action aims to halt China’s use of Southeast Asia as processing sites, while maintaining economic and trade cooperation between the US and Southeast Asian countries.
The UK’s The Guardian reported that some Asian countries facing the most severe punitive tariffs due to unfair trade deficits, as perceived by Trump. However, analysts speculate about the US’s calculation methods and suggest that Trump is attempting to target countries that receive significant investments from China to challenge the world’s second-largest economy.
As for why Taiwan was not included in the initial list of announcements, it sparked speculation about potential agreements or understandings. Fan Jiazhong speculated that Taiwan likely has already reached an agreement with the US, hence the delay in disclosing tariffs.
In early April, Taiwan’s tariff rate was 32%, followed by trade negotiations between Taiwan and the US. On the 8th, Lian Xianming, the director of the Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research, expressed on Facebook that even if Taiwan’s negotiations do not proceed as expected, Taiwan hopes for a tariff rate between 15% and 20%, as high rates benefit neither the US nor Taiwan.
Fan estimated that Taiwan’s tariff rate is likely between 20% and 25%, lower than the initial equivalent rate of 32%, but still higher than Vietnam’s 20%. He stated, “Taiwan has many negotiation chips, including opening up the automotive industry, market access, and semiconductor investments.”
Analyzing further, Fan pointed out that Taiwan’s automotive industry is small in scale and lacks competitiveness, so opening up imports would not have a significant impact but could lead to tariff concessions. Additionally, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry investing in the US also holds negotiation advantages. He added, “Agriculture accounts for less than 1% of Taiwan’s GDP, so the pressure to open up agricultural imports is limited, which are all negotiations on the table.”
王國臣指出，台灣若稅率高於日本、韓國（皆為25%），將難以向民間企業交代。他推估台灣最終稅率應在17%至22%之間，「只要低於韓國，就算是勝利或穩住局面」。
川普關稅政策希望達成4大目標：振興美國製造業、增加美國政府收入、平衡美國貿易逆差，以及迫使貿易夥伴制定有利於美國的政策。
川普上任後頭幾個月已透過關稅取得進展。部分企業宣布在美投資設廠，每個月有數百億美元關稅收入流入美國，美國4月貿易赤字減半，許多國家與美國展開談判。
王國臣認為，川普的關稅政策「初步成功」，建立出以美國為核心的貿易結構。
他強調，「差別關稅」與「友岸外包」（friend-shoring）策略也是川普政策核心，避免低階產業回流美國，改以策略性投資夥伴分擔製造功能。
他還指出：「各國會配合抑制中國洗產地，進一步促進供應鏈去中化。關稅只是再工業化的第一步，未來還要搭配大而美法案與社會福利制度的改革。」
According to experts’ analysis, although the tariff measures in this round are a tool the US uses to pressure in trade negotiations, they are actually an extension of the strategic competition between the US and China. Trump’s approach includes warning of imposing punitive tariffs while leaving room for adjustments and negotiations, making his trade policy a strategic leverage to contain the Chinese Communist Party and restructure the global supply chain.