In the news report dated February 16, 2025, US President Trump expressed his willingness to restart nuclear arms control talks with Russia and China, urging the three countries to reduce defense budgets. Experts believe this is another instance of the US adopting a “diplomacy-first, military-second” approach. With concerns over China’s rapid expansion of nuclear weapons, Trump is actively countering by ordering the development of a new generation of Iron Dome defense system to deter Chinese provocations.
President Trump stated on Thursday that he hopes to revive nuclear arms limitation negotiations with Russia and China, ultimately aiming for the three countries to agree to halve their massive defense budgets.
Trump told reporters at the White House that the US has invested billions of dollars to rebuild the country’s nuclear deterrent, and he hopes to persuade American adversaries to agree to reduce their military spending.
“We don’t have a reason to create new nuclear weapons, we already have so many,” Trump said. “You can destroy the world 50 times, 100 times. And now we’re creating new nuclear weapons, they are too.”
Once things settle in the Middle East and Ukraine, Trump expressed hope for nuclear talks with Russia and China. “The earliest meetings I want include those with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin. I want to say, ‘Let’s cut the defense budget in half.’ We can do it. I think we have the ability to achieve it.”
In response, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the US military expenditure accounts for 40% of global military spending, and the US should take the lead in reducing its military budget. The spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, suggested that the US and Russia should significantly reduce their nuclear arsenals first to create necessary conditions for other nuclear-armed countries to join the nuclear arms control process.
The US defense budget, as authorized by the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) signed by former President Biden at the end of 2024, authorizes defense spending of $895 billion. Russia’s defense budget has reached a historic high, with approximately 13.5 trillion rubles (over $145 billion).
Regarding China’s defense budget, the US Department of Defense reported last year that experts generally believe the actual defense expenditure is about 40% to 90% higher than its publicly announced defense budget, reaching around $330 billion to $450 billion in 2024.
During his first term, Trump attempted to involve China in nuclear arms control talks but was unsuccessful. At that time, negotiations were ongoing between the US and Russia on extending the New START Treaty.
However, under the Biden administration, Russia suspended participation in the treaty. Meanwhile, the US and Russia continue to engage in large-scale projects to prolong the life or replace aging nuclear weapons in their respective arsenals.
Director of the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources of the Taiwan Institute for Defense and Security Studies Su Ziyun stated that Trump is bringing back the framework of past nuclear limitation plans and proposing it again. His intention is to show that the US is willing to negotiate, but whether Russia and China choose to join is their responsibility.
He continued by highlighting concerns about China’s rapid development of nuclear warheads, estimating that they could exceed one thousand by the 2030s. Thus, Trump’s proactive approach aims to initiate nuclear arms control and reduce forces. Regardless of whether China and Moscow agree or not, Trump appears as a winner for putting forward a peace proposal.
Regarding whether China will agree to limit nuclear weapons and even reduce military expenditure, Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the National Defense University’s Institute of Political Studies, stated that China is currently at a disadvantage in terms of military technology and nuclear arsenal. If China were to halve its military spending or restrict its nuclear weapons, Beijing’s bargaining chips would diminish.
He added, “Even if the US limits nuclear weapons or reduces military spending, it remains the world’s number one military power. Trump’s goal is to force China to lay its nuclear cards on the table, ensuring neighboring countries that there are no expansionary intentions.”
However, it is expected that Beijing will not agree. If the US insists, China may superficially acquiesce but will likely engage in various ways to deceive, conceal critical weapons information, and maintain control over key weapons in terms of negotiations with the US.
Su Ziyun also noted that Beijing is unlikely to agree, so Trump’s proposal positions the US as a winner regardless of the outcome, showcasing a diplomatic strategy.
Su Ziyun further analyzed that China’s swift nuclear development is aimed at exerting influence both regionally and psychologically. By expanding its nuclear capabilities, China aims to instill fear of potential retaliation in countries considering defense assistance for Taiwan. This strategy is similar to how Russia’s possession of 6,000 nuclear weapons deterred other countries from deploying troops to assist Ukraine after its invasion.
Therefore, the US is actively countering China’s nuclear capabilities beyond economic and traditional military measures. The development of the Iron Dome defense system, superior to Israel’s Iron Dome, strengthens the US missile defense capabilities against ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and other aerial threats from adversaries or enemy nations.
In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova criticized the US Iron Dome project, alleging that its purpose is to undermine Russia and China’s nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Shen Mingshi explained that the US Iron Dome system enhances missile defense capabilities primarily for defensive purposes. However, the US is also working to enhance its ballistic missile development, particularly in hypersonic missile technology, in the hopes of expanding advantage in both offensive and defensive missile capabilities to deter Chinese provocations.
According to CNN reports, the US is currently constructing a multi-layered missile defense system on the Pacific island of Guam, which is considered highly vulnerable to missile attacks. With Andersen Air Force Base on the island hosting US Air Force bombers and being a key deployment base for US naval forces supporting Taiwan defense, including nuclear attack submarines.
Years ago, the US military deployed and tested the Iron Dome air defense system imported from Israel in Guam, to intercept potential cruise missiles from China in the event of conflict between the US and China.
Regarding Trump’s simultaneous push for trilateral nuclear arms talks and the Iron Dome defense system, Su Ziyun believed that the initiatives are indirectly related. Nuclear weapons are offensive tools, while the Iron Dome serves a defensive purpose. Trump is bolstering US defenses on one hand and calling for reductions in offensive capabilities on the other, indicating a parallel strategy.
However, some experts argue that the escalation of defensive measures can lead to destabilization and prompt adversaries to increase their nuclear arsenal, reminiscent of the nuclear arms race during the Cold War, prompting past strategic arms limitations talks between the US and the USSR, as well as the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The goal back then was to avoid nuclear weapon development.
“But if one side rapidly develops missile defense systems,” Su Ziyun continued, “it may create an imbalance, potentially causing the defensive system to be the first to strike.” Nevertheless, “in modern circumstances, Trump will reinforce US missile defenses regardless and likely reduce both sides’ nuclear weapons.”
The US Department of Defense also pointed out that aside from increasing nuclear warheads, China is also advancing its projection capabilities, including more strategic nuclear submarines, additional DF-41 ICBMs, and the development of sixth-generation strategic bombers, along with upcoming stealth bombers.
This signifies that China has more tools to project nuclear weapons into the territory of adversaries, creating a sense of deterrence. Conversely, the Pentagon warns that with China possessing multiple projection tools, it could target military objectives, including US ICBM bases and political centers like Washington, D.C., or civilian cities, reminiscent of the Cold War concept of mutually assured destruction.
Due to their comparable nuclear strengths and the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), wherein both sides have the ability to mutually destroy, the US and Russia have refrained from launching a nuclear war for a prolonged period, maintaining a balanced posture.
According to Su Ziyun, under the conditions of mutually assured destruction, proposals for disarmament and defense are interlinked. This dynamic reflects the proposed disarmament measures and preventive capabilities—both are interrelated.
Overall, the news report indicates the intricate implications the proposed nuclear arms limitations and defense measures between the US, Russia, and China hold and the potential ramifications on global security dynamics.