The Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced on Monday (August 5th) evening that based on online voting results, the Democratic representatives have selected current Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s presidential candidate, although there are still procedures to be completed.
The Democratic Party will hold its national convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22 to officially nominate the party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates, who will then deliver their acceptance speeches.
Currently, Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a full-fledged battle, the outcome of which will take American presidential politics to unprecedented territory.
In late July, Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt during a campaign rally, then received the formal nomination from the Republican Party, and ultimately appointed Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate.
Less than a week later, President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed Kamala Harris. On August 5th, she became the Democratic nominee without winning a single primary, an unprecedented event since 1968.
Political analyst Susan MacManus from Florida told Epoch Times, “It’s like a huge jigsaw puzzle where the pieces are changing almost every day, or at least every week.”
University of Michigan political science professor Ken Kollman shares a similar view, stating, “Things have become very chaotic.”
Despite these unusual circumstances, political experts believe that old political rules still apply. Therefore, for candidates to win, they will likely need to do three things: retain their core voters, attract independent voters with concrete issues, and ensure voters turn out on election day.
Here’s a breakdown of the current state of the campaign and the measures taken by both sides to gain an advantage.
Polls indicate that the current support rates for both candidates are neck and neck. Kamala Harris and Trump are within the margin of error in national polls.
FiveThirtyEight’s average poll on August 5th showed Vice President Harris’s national support had increased by 1.7%. A TIPP Insights poll released on the same day showed Harris leading by 1 percentage point.
The support rates for both candidates in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina are close, with these states likely to determine the electoral votes.
Recent polls show Harris slightly ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Other polls indicate a close race between the two in Michigan and Georgia.
Harris’s candidacy has significantly shaken up the race since Trump had a lead over Biden by several percentage points. However, according to TIPP Insights, her polling increase may be due to a honeymoon effect following her candidacy.
Analysts agree that there is still much uncertainty in this election. Experts tell Epoch Times that to counter Harris’s momentum, Trump must deliver new messages.
Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at IU Indianapolis, stated that after Biden’s withdrawal, Trump’s campaign team seems to be searching for new messages.
Dusso said, “I think, like most of us, they were surprised by Biden stepping down and weren’t really prepared for this step.”
Experts suggest that to regain support, Trump’s campaign team must move beyond personal attacks and general promises, focusing on issue-based campaigning.
MacManus mentioned that a campaign based on personal attacks benefits neither side, adding that both candidates should focus on “how they will solve a particular problem that their opponent cannot.”
Jeff Bloodworth, a professor of American political history at Gannon University in Pennsylvania, suggested that Trump’s campaign team should emphasize answering a critical question – “Under a Biden-Harris administration, are you or the world better off than under a Trump administration?”
Bloodworth stated, “This was the undertone of the Trump–Biden campaign and should continue to be the undertone of the Trump–Harris campaign.”
Edwin Benton, a political science professor at South Florida University, emphasized that it all boils down to economic issues, which the public is always concerned about – their wallets and economic problems.
There is evidence that Trump’s campaign team is conveying this message. A political action committee supporting Trump’s campaign aired a series of ads linking Harris to soaring grocery prices, rising crime rates, and an increase in illegal immigration.
One of Harris’s significant advantages is being a fresh face in the race. Many experts point out that her biggest advantage may be her relative youth. At 59 years old, she presents a contrast to Biden’s long-standing image. Now, she is competing against 78-year-old Trump as a new face.
In her campaign speeches, Harris portrays herself as a candidate from a new generation.
During a rally in Atlanta on July 30th, she told the audience, “This election is about two radically different visions for our nation: one focused on the future, the other mired in the past.”
Experts note that a clear attack strategy by Trump’s campaign team is to compare Harris to Biden.
Kollman said, “Her biggest burden is her connection to the Biden administration, which is an unpopular presidency.”
Dusso added, “His vulnerability is hers, so continue tying them together.”
Karoline Leavitt, the national press secretary for Trump’s campaign team, stated in an email to Epoch Times, “Harris must defend her support for Biden, including on inflation, immigration, and foreign policy.”
Epoch Times requested a comment from Harris’s campaign team but had not received a response by the time of publication.
Experts suggest that both candidates have key issues they can win on, articulating their core issues by addressing problems with solutions.
Harris’s strong issue is abortion. Following the overturn of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court, abortion has become a winning card for the Democratic Party.
Kollman noted, “I think this is a significant change in American politics.” He pointed out that for Democrats and many Republicans, abortion is now the single most important issue, much like supporting the pro-life cause has been for decades.
Experts highlight that Trump also holds several strong cards. Immigration remains a winning card for Republicans, while Harris attempts to neutralize this advantage by pointing out Trump’s opposition to a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year, which failed twice in the Senate.
International affairs also remain a strong point for Republicans. Benton noted that the Biden administration’s stance on Ukraine and Israel is perplexing. While the administration advocates for military aid to Ukraine and Israel, it tries to dictate how weapons are used, undermining the aid’s effectiveness.
Benton said, “Joe Biden and Harris are trying to play both sides, and that’s not sustainable.”
Dusso believes that the key to success in politics has not changed, which is to “identify a problem and say, ‘I have a solution.'”
Both campaign teams are actively courting swing states. Dan Kanninen, the battleground states director for Harris’s campaign team, stated that the team currently has field offices in most swing states, forming a network with over 500,000 volunteers focused on mobilizing voters.
Leavitt informed Epoch Times via email that Trump’s campaign team’s battleground state plan, “Trump Force 47,” has attracted tens of thousands of volunteers.
She said, “We have paid staff and volunteers supporting field efforts in each of our battleground states, and the size of our team continues to expand every day.”
Both campaign teams boast impressive fundraising totals. As of May 24th, Harris’s campaign team had about $96 million on hand. Trump’s campaign team had $128 million.
Harris’s campaign team reported raising $310 million in July. Trump’s campaign team reported raising $137 million.
The election outcome may hinge on which candidate can rally more of their core voters on election day. For Harris, this means capturing young voters who historically have been unlikely to vote.
Kollman suggested that for Trump, this means appealing to rural voters, especially male voters, who also do not often turn out to vote.
While Hispanic voters have traditionally leaned towards the Democratic Party, there is a trend of shifting towards the Republican Party. Experts are divided on whether Hispanic voters’ ballots will decisively swing towards Trump or flow back to the Democratic Party.
Trump has also made progress in gaining Black voters, but experts are unsure if this will be enough to influence the election, especially in swing states.
Kollman stated that in the last election, Biden won over some dissatisfied Republican voters. Harris has also launched a campaign to appeal to these voters, but it is uncertain whether she will inherit the Republican voters who voted for Biden in 2020.
While the window for this election is relatively short, it will take time for the dust to settle after Harris’s candidacy.
Dusso said, “Everything is brand new.” He added that it will take a few weeks after voters get used to Harris as a candidate to determine the trend in polling.
Candidates now have less than three months to solidify their best issues and convey relevant messages to voters. The election will be held on November 5th.