Less than a week before the 2024 US election, people around the world are anxiously watching and waiting for the results. The outcome of the US election will have an impact on global political dynamics, foreign relations, trade, and the stock market. Beijing is also closely monitoring the election, but analysts believe that regardless of whether the Republican candidate Trump or the Democratic candidate Harris wins, the US-China relationship will continue to deteriorate, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be the loser.
While domestic issues are the focus of US voters in the election, the direction of US-China relations affects various aspects globally and is also one of the focal points of concern. The two major US political parties have significant differences on various issues, but they maintain a united front in confronting the threat posed by the CCP.
The CCP is facing economic challenges after the pandemic, with the Chinese economy struggling to recover. The Beijing authorities are closely monitoring how the next US president will impact bilateral relations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently met with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Subsequently, an official statement from the CCP emphasized that the direction of the relationship “depends on the guidance of the leaders of both countries.”
Both US parties have increasingly viewed the CCP as America’s greatest strategic challenge in recent years, with the US military consistently labeling the CCP as a pressing challenge. Mutual suspicion between the two sides has reached its peak. The US believes that the CCP is seeking to reshape the world order and undermine the international order led by the US since World War II. The CCP, on the other hand, has expressed dissatisfaction with US tariffs and export controls, and tensions have escalated over issues in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
An article by Bloomberg titled “Xi Is the Biggest Loser, Whoever Wins in the US,” states that regardless of who wins the election next week, Beijing should anticipate a more challenging political climate in the future.
The article points out that Trump is notoriously unpredictable and believes that trade negotiations will help him take a tough stance against Beijing. From a trade perspective, Trump views the US-China relations, and based on his campaign rhetoric, a decoupling of economies is seen as an inevitable trend.
During his previous term as US president, Trump initiated a trade war with the CCP by imposing tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports and sanctioning CCP-backed companies, including Huawei. During this election period, Trump has indicated plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods further, raising rates to 60%. According to a report by UBS, this could halve China’s economic growth rate, causing a 2.5 percentage point decrease in GDP next year.
The Bloomberg article quotes Ali Wyne from the International Crisis Group, stating that Trump is also adept at dealmaking, placing other goals, such as strengthening US alliances and partnerships in Asia and addressing human rights issues in China, under the framework of establishing a more balanced economic relationship with Beijing.
In the past four years of Biden’s presidency, while the Biden administration has sought to maintain stable communication with Beijing, US concerns about the Chinese threat to national security have only escalated. Biden has not only continued the tariffs on China
and imposed investment and export controls on China’s technology industry, but also imposed more tariffs.
The US Department of Commerce has over 400 Chinese companies listed on the trade restriction entity list, which is a record number of Chinese companies found to be non-compliant last year. The Department of Commerce has pledged to continue using all tools—administrative, criminal, and regulatory—to protect US national security.
In 2022, the “Chips and Science Act” was introduced to create a fair competitive environment and protect national security, providing incentives for US domestic computer chip manufacturers, electric vehicle components, and other new technology manufacturers. The “Biosecure Act” passed by the US House of Representatives in September prompted US pharmaceutical companies to start decoupling from Chinese supply chain partners.
The Bloomberg article suggests that if Harris wins, this situation may continue. The goal is to ensure that the US remains innovative and not under Beijing’s control. Harris’ Treasury Department announced another measure on October 28, imposing restrictions on US investment in sensitive technologies in China. The new rules will take effect in January, prohibiting transactions with “concerning countries”—with only China, Hong Kong, and Macau on the list.
Despite Harris’s view that US policy aims not to decouple from China but to manage risks, she also believes that China’s economic struggles stem from the CCP’s failure to abide by international rules, while the US needs to protect its interests.
She once said, “More and more people realize that when seeking a stable investment environment, China may not be the best choice due to its issues in complying with and respecting international rules and norms.”
Meanwhile, China’s economic outlook is bleak with challenges such as broader economic slowdown and a real estate market crisis. Following strict pandemic control measures, China has struggled to achieve a comprehensive economic recovery.
The Taiwan issue is a red line for CCP leader Xi Jinping and the most contentious issue between the US and China.
Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed intentions to “unify” Taiwan and has not ruled out using force.
According to the Bloomberg article, neither Harris nor Trump is likely to make it easier for Xi Jinping to achieve this goal. During Trump’s tenure, the US increased arms sales to Taiwan and frequency of US warships crossing the Taiwan Strait.
The Biden administration continues arms sales to Taiwan and has repeatedly stated the intention to help Taiwan build self-defense capabilities. The US Seventh Fleet not only continues to periodically sail through the Taiwan Strait but also conducts joint naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait with Germany, France, the UK, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand—an action that has stirred objections from the CCP.
The US-initiated Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) activated during Trump’s administration has not only been continued under the Biden administration but has also been strengthened further.
In Biden’s administration, due to the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Chinese navy and coast guard in the South China Sea, causing injuries to Filipino soldiers and damage to ships, the US has repeatedly condemned China and reiterated the US-Philippines defense treaty.
During her Asian tour in September 2022, Harris publicly criticized China’s provocative actions against Taiwan as a disruption to the international order. She said, “Taiwan is a vibrant democracy that contributes globally in technology, health, and various fields; the US will continue to deepen its unofficial relations with Taiwan.”
In an interview with CBS News on October 7, Harris stated that the US must ensure the “One China Policy,” which includes supporting Taiwan’s ability to defend itself and ensuring freedom in the Taiwan Strait, but she did not address whether the US would use force to support Taiwan. President Biden has previously stated on multiple occasions that the US would intervene militarily to protect Taiwan.
The Wall Street Journal reported on October 18 that Trump said in an interview, “I will say that if you (China) go into Taiwan, I’m sorry, but I will put tariffs on you at a very high rate, probably 150% to 200%.” Trump firmly believes that if he is in power, China cannot invade Taiwan.
Chinese leaders will closely monitor how Trump, if elected president, will handle the Ukraine conflict. CNN reported that Beijing is concerned that Trump will take steps to repair US-Russian relations. Trump has indicated that he can quickly achieve a ceasefire, allowing the US to shift more attention back to the Asia-Pacific region, something the CCP does not want to see.
In an interview with Tucker Carlson on Thursday, October 31, Trump said, “We cannot allow them (China and Russia) to come together. A Sino-Russian alliance is dangerous.”
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told CNN that many Chinese people believe that regardless of the election outcome, US-China relations are unlikely to improve.
“Looking ahead, whether Harris or Trump becomes the next US president, the continuity in the US policy toward China is almost certain to surpass any potential major changes,” said Shi Yanhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, to CNN.