Recent polling results show that there has been an increased political gap between men and women since 2020. Some analysts suggest that since women voters slightly outnumber men, the rising voter turnout divided by gender could influence the outcome of the election. However, there are indications that the gap may narrow in the final days leading up to the election. Factors such as education and race may also play a significant role in influencing voter preferences.
Since the 1980 election, women have tended to lean towards the Democratic Party, while men have preferred the Republican Party. Data from Cornell University’s Roper Center for Public Opinion Research in New York reveals that male voters favored Ronald Reagan by an 11-point margin, while female voters supported Jimmy Carter and Reagan roughly equally.
A joint poll by The New York Times and The Marist Poll released in September showed that Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris led by 11 points among female voters, while Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump had a 17-point advantage among male voters.
According to data from the Pew Research Center in Washington, Harris’ lead among women is comparable to what Joe Biden enjoyed in 2020. That year, the number of male voters for both Biden and Trump were roughly equal.
Some analysts predict that the gender voting gap in this election could reach historic highs. Lee Miringoff of the Marist Poll mentioned in an interview with the Epoch Times that the gap might exceed 20%.
One possible reason for the widening gap in this election could be the higher voter turnout, which magnifies existing gender preferences. As Harris aims to attract more female voters and Trump draws more male voters, any performance disparity between the candidates could widen the gap.
Miringoff explained, “There are two factors at play. One is individual preferences, causing the gap. The other is the turnout, whether one group or gender holds a larger share in the election.”
Historically, female voters have outnumbered male voters by 2 to 4 percentage points in national elections. A surge in female voter participation could have a significant impact.
The University of South Florida’s Election Lab data on early voting as of October 31st afternoon showed that women accounted for 54.2% of early or absentee voters, while men made up 43.7%, with 2.1% of voters’ gender unknown.
However, these numbers are only from six states providing voter gender information: Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginia, representing less than a quarter of the 62.9 million early and absentee votes cast as of October 31st.
Both the Trump campaign team and the Harris campaign team have taken measures to narrow the gender gap. Trump has appealed to female voters, while Harris has made efforts to appeal to male voters, both emphasizing the concept of women’s safety.
Trump held a town hall meeting exclusively for women on October 16th, where he positioned himself as their protector, citing promises to ban transgender athletes from women’s sports and ensure border security to protect women from violence.
“I am your protector,” Trump declared to female voters during a rally in Pennsylvania and Indiana on September 23rd. “As president, I have to be your protector.”
Simultaneously, the Republican National Committee co-chair and Lara Trump, former president’s daughter-in-law, held several events for female voters in battleground states.
For some female voters, border security is a crucial issue, and thus, security assurances have garnered their favor.
“For me, border security is important,” said Katya LaGrow, a 45-year-old female voter from Michigan. “I feel a lot of things keep me up at night, and I worry those insecurities will trickle into America.”
Karina Thompson, 28 years old from Traverse City, Michigan, a mother of three, expressed concern for her family’s future.
“We believe that if Kamala comes to power, it won’t be good even for our children,” she mentioned, particularly highlighting international affairs.
Harris has sought to bridge the gap with male voters through public appeals by former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama. They argued that gender bias accounts for Harris lacking support among male voters, partly based on the notion that women need protection.
Former President Obama viewed the lack of support for Harris among black men as a form of gender bias and urged men to consider voting for a female president.
“I’m talking to men directly here. There are some things that make me feel that you just don’t feel it when women take presidential positions,” Obama stated in a television address on October 10th. “How come? Understand that the women in our lives have always supported us.”
Michelle Obama echoed similar sentiments during an event with Harris in Michigan on October 26th, urging male voters to support Harris for their wives and daughters.
She first questioned why black men would support Trump, citing his past record including “cracking down on protester demonstrations who were just protecting their sons from being shot because of their skin color.”
She also touched on the abortion issue.
“I hope the gentlemen here can understand where I’m coming from because it’s not just about protecting women’s choices about having a child, but more importantly, as women and girls, we haven’t yet fostered a societal environment that openly discusses reproductive health,” she said.
“Your niece could be the one turned away by the hospital to miscarry in a bathtub,” she said, “In the worst-case scenario, you could be the one holding flowers at a funeral. You could be the one raising a child alone.”
Samuel Umuma, 58 from Flint, Michigan, told the Epoch Times that Harris’ commitment to protecting abortion rights was important for him and that he voted for her for the “greater good.”
Dave Keener, 62 from Hastings, Michigan, also resonated with this sentiment.
“I just think Republicans tend to look out for their group and their plans more. Democrats try to serve more social groups,” Keener explained to the Epoch Times.
Harris’ appeals based on character qualities resonated with John Sherman, 77, from Elkhart, Indiana.
Sherman stated that his decision to vote for Harris was not based on a single issue.
“In my view, she (Harris) stands out in the aspects of character, integrity, and other important aspects for me,” Sherman told the Epoch Times.
Recent polls indicate that the gender gaps in the Trump and Harris campaigns have narrowed. According to Jim Lee, in a poll conducted by the Susquehanna Polling & Research in Pennsylvania on October 22nd, Harris led by 2.6 percentage points among female voters in Pennsylvania, while Trump held the same advantage among male voters.
In Michigan, a poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research on October 27th showed that Harris led by 3 percentage points among male voters and 7 percentage points among female voters.
“In these late surveys, we haven’t seen significant gender disparities,” Lee told the Epoch Times.
Experts caution against focusing solely on individual polling statistics, as voter backgrounds can encompass multiple social factors.
Polling expert Neil Newhouse told the Epoch Times, “One point that many media outlets tend to overlook is the educational gap among voters.”
According to Pew Research Center data, in the 2020 presidential election, Biden enjoyed a 24-point advantage among college-educated voters.
Race is another variable. Traditionally, the Democratic Party has won the majority of Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters’ support. However, Trump’s emergence has weakened the Democratic Party’s advantage among these demographics.
A recent survey by the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People from Baltimore, Maryland, revealed that 58% of Black men and 67% of Black women support Harris.
Multiple exit polls have shown that Barack Obama garnered 95% of Black male votes in 2008, while Joe Biden received 79% of Black male votes in 2020.
In 2023, the percentage of Spanish-speaking American voters leaning towards the Democratic Party decreased from about 60% in 2016 to 47%, while those leaning towards the Republican Party increased from about 25% to 35%.
A similar shift has been observed among Asian American voters. Gallup data from Washington, DC indicated that around 30% of Asian American voters supported the Republican Party in 2020. This figure, according to an exit poll, was higher than 18% in 2016.
The official election day for the 2024 presidential election is on November 5th. As of October 30th, 47 states had conducted early in-person voting.