As US military aid continues to arrive, Russia has launched a fierce offensive with multiple fronts. In the northeastern region, Russian forces are focusing on Kharkiv, prompting Ukraine to proactively retreat from several villages near the Kharkiv border. In the Zaporizhia region, Russia has recaptured the village of Robitnye, while in the Donetsk frontline, they are simultaneously advancing westward from Avdiivka.
However, based on public information and reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources, it appears that the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has slowed down, and they have not been able to quickly seize Luhansk as planned.
On the ground, Ukraine is currently in a defensive position, continuously shrinking its defensive lines and abandoning some positions. Ukraine is primarily using missiles and long-range drones for counterattacks, employing US-supplied army tactical missiles to target Crimea and Russian command centers, airbases, and ammunition depots near the frontlines. They are also using drones to frequently attack high-value targets in Russia’s rear, such as refineries and military bases.
Following Putin’s fifth presidential term, he immediately rearranged some key officials. Putin replaced Shoigu with First Deputy Prime Minister Belousov as the new Minister of Defense. Shoigu is set to transition to Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and become Deputy Chairman of the Military-Industrial Commission, although it seems like he might be beginning to be marginalized.
Shortly after Shoigu’s dismissal, in the early hours of May 12, Lieutenant General Kuznetsov, the head of the personnel department at the Russian Ministry of Defense, was arrested in his bed. It seems that more information about corruption within the Ministry of Defense, particularly regarding the buying and selling of positions, will be revealed from the mouth of the head of the personnel department. Following this, on May 14, two deputy ministers of the Russian Ministry of Defense – Chalikov and Krivoruchko – were taken away for investigation, and on the same day, Lieutenant General Konashenkov, the chief spokesperson of the Ministry of Defense, was dismissed. Additionally, on April 23, Deputy Minister Ivanov, in charge of barracks and infrastructure construction, was arrested without any notification from Shoigu.
This thorough clearance by the Russian Ministry of Defense, from ministers to deputy ministers and department heads, clearly indicates that Putin is looking for scapegoats for the unfavorable situation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Although General Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, has been allowed to stay, it is likely only because of his practical usefulness in commanding the war. Once Putin no longer needs him after the war, Gerasimov may also be purged, along with his loyalists.
US Secretary of State Blinken made a sudden visit to Kyiv on May 15 and announced that the US would provide an additional $20 billion in military aid to Ukraine. This is the fourth batch of military assistance that the US government has provided to Ukraine since the enactment of the new Aid to Ukraine Act, with a total value of $94 billion. Blinken also explicitly stated that Ukraine could use US-supplied weapons to target Russian mainland, although he emphasized that the US does not encourage such actions. Despite the wavering stance of the US, they have finally loosened the constraints on military aid, allowing Ukraine to freely use US-supplied weaponry for attacks on Russia. This indicates that Russia is becoming increasingly weakened, and the threat it poses to Europe and America is no longer a cause for concern.