The United States has announced plans to deploy the latest fifth-generation stealth fighter F-35 at its military bases in Japan, sparking speculation about preparations for countering possible Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Experts believe that the strategic trend of the United States strengthening its military deterrence against Chinese military adventurism remains unchanged, and the deployment aims to demonstrate its determination and efforts to enhance regional stability. The future outlook of the U.S. Air Force’s reinforcement is also drawing significant attention.
According to reports from foreign media, in early July, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the deployment of F-35A and F-35B aircraft at Misawa Air Base in Aomori Prefecture, and Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Station near Hiroshima, Japan. Among these deployments, 48 F-35A aircraft will replace 36 F-16s at Misawa Air Base, upgrading to the fifth-generation fighter aircraft. Misawa Air Base is located about 2500 kilometers from Taipei and approximately 2100 kilometers from Beijing.
In recent years, U.S. fifth-generation fighter aircraft have been dynamically deployed to various bases in the Western Pacific, including Japan, South Korea, Guam, Tinian, Palau, and the Philippines. These aircraft quietly land at different locations and depart or relocate without attracting much attention.
Furthermore, in mid-July, the U.S. Navy deployed an F-35C squadron at Iwakuni and 5th Carrier Strike Group. It is expected that later this year, when the “Washington” aircraft carrier replaces the “Reagan” aircraft carrier on a regular basis stationed in Japan at the Yokosuka Naval Base, these F-35Cs will board the aircraft carrier.
It is reported that China’s J-20 stealth fighter has deployed nearly 300 aircraft and plans to increase that number by 100 each year, aiming to reach 1000 aircraft by the 2030s. Recently, China has replaced a large number of its main fighter aircraft at the Wuyishan Air Force Base in Fujian Province, which is closer to Taiwan.
Shu Xiaohuang, Deputy Researcher at Taiwan’s National Security Institute’s Division of Chinese Military and Operational Concepts, told Epoch Times that the latest restructuring of the U.S. Air Force is a response to the Chinese threat, integrated into the overall deployment in the Indo-Pacific region. “In the past few years, the United States has been promoting the so-called Pacific Deterrence Initiative, aiming to make significant adjustments to the overall military deployment in the Pacific region. Although the U.S. has shifted its focus to the Pacific in the past, it has never truly considered scenarios such as being attacked in the Pacific region.”
He further analyzed that the U.S. Air Force’s actions have experienced delays. Bases in the Indo-Pacific region such as Japan and South Korea have been using outdated aircraft until early this year when the decision was finally made to adjust the region’s fighter aircraft. Initially, F-22s were deployed in the Indo-Pacific region in states like Arizona and Hawaii. However, due to the limited number of F-22s, they were insufficient to support potential aggression within the Indo-Pacific region. Therefore, this year, the U.S. Air Force formally decided to replace the F-16s at three bases with 48 F-35s and upgrade to the latest F-15EX in the 18th Squadron, known as a 4.5-generation fighter aircraft.
Shu Xiaohuang believes that the deployment of F-15EX by the U.S. Air Force at the Kadena Air Base in Japan is significant because it is a heavy aircraft capable of carrying all heavy weapons from the U.S. military arsenal. In a recent joint exercise in the Pacific, the U.S. Navy utilized the F-18 carrying the standard Missile Six, collectively known as AIM-174, and potentially future acquisitions like AGM183 hypersonic missiles.
“In summary, the U.S. Air Force’s enhanced deployment in the Indo-Pacific region indicates an increase in its regional combat capabilities and a significant strengthening of its striking power in the Indo-Pacific region. Especially, Kadena is the nearest base to Taiwan and the closest to the mainland of China. Taking off from there and using long-range missiles for near-coastal strikes against the Chinese Navy is most significant,” he said.
The U.S.’s preemptive deployment is reminiscent of former President Trump’s remarks. In a fundraising event, Trump stated that if China invaded Taiwan during his tenure, he would bomb Beijing in retaliation.
The Republican National Convention officially nominated Trump as the presidential candidate on July 15, with 39-year-old Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate.
Vance, in his first interview after receiving the nomination, referred to the Chinese regime as the “biggest threat” to the United States. He believed the focus should primarily be on increasing the difficulty of a Chinese occupation of Taiwan. “The honest answer is that we need to understand what exactly we would do if China (CCP) attacked Taiwan.”
Su Ziyun, Director of the Institute for Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s National Security Institute, expressed that U.S. policies are generally stable. Trump’s different approach only involves technical issues, whereas the overall trend of the U.S. is strategic and will not change—that is, to enhance its ability to deter Chinese military adventurism.
He believed that the U.S. sending these fifth-generation fighters to Japan is indeed aimed at countering China’s ambitions against Taiwan. When China decides to take military adventurism against Taiwan, U.S. forces could arrive in about 45 minutes. “This means that the United States has decided to defend Taiwan, and if the decision to send troops is made, it will be done quickly. It’s hard to estimate what will happen before that decision is made.”
Deputy Researcher Hang Zijie of Taiwan’s National Security Institute stated on July 24 that in the strategy of China’s attack on Taiwan, the focus would be on the Eastern theater, with other theaters providing support, such as the Southern theater. In terms of military deployments related to a potential unification by force and training, China has long considered the U.S. as a hypothetical adversary. In recent years, the Chinese military has continued to expand its activities around the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific, aiming to conduct relevant training.
In the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, it is expected that other Chinese theaters would offer support to the Eastern theater. The latest U.S. Air Force deployment places pressure on the Northern theater responsible for guarding Beijing. China would find it challenging to balance efforts in the Taiwan Strait and protecting the capital, Beijing, during a conflict.
Su Ziyun stated that if China decides to cause trouble in the Taiwan Strait, the primary focus would be on the Eastern theater. Concerning the Northern theater, Beijing would remain vigilant because if other countries decide to join in defending Taiwan, they would not target civilian objectives in Beijing, nor would Taiwan engage in such actions. The battleground for democracies attacking China would concentrate on military bases in the Eastern and Central theaters, mainly ports and airports, with cities not being the primary targets.
“Some people might emotionally think the goal is to attack Beijing or Shanghai, but such notions are unreliable. Russia’s attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, even hospitals, had significant backlash. Democratic nations like the Republic of China (Taiwan), Japan, and the United States would never engage in such actions.”
Su Ziyun mentioned that the U.S.’s new deployment reflects its resolute Indo-Pacific strategy, unaffected by technical issues. Strengthening defense along the First Island Chain will not be influenced by U.S. elections. NATO believes in avoiding reliance on specific countries’ election results, and Taiwan should realize that self-help precedes external assistance, forming a beneficial cycle.
Hang Zijie believed that while the U.S. deployment of F-35 at Misawa may be considered a military response to recent Chinese military activities, it also serves to counter potential threats from North Korea and Russia. The primary significance lies in demonstrating the determination and efforts made by the U.S. to enhance regional stability through F-35 deployment.
Comparisons of the capabilities of the latest U.S. stealth fighter F-35 with China’s J-20 have garnered attention.
Su Ziyun mentioned that China’s J-20 and J-35 have good designs, but the U.S. has over 40 years of experience in developing stealth aircraft, coupled with absolute electronic superiority. Advanced chips from TSMC serve as a primary source for the U.S.’s new generation combat capabilities, while China uses chips that are a generation behind in technology. As a result, China’s J-20 and J-35 struggle to match up to the U.S.
Hang Zijie stated that most consider the F-35’s combat capabilities superior to the J-20. There are rumors that the U.S.’s radar and weapon systems can effectively detect the J-20. “China’s promotional claims often exceed reality. The future outcome of a war will depend on the technological development of China’s weapons.”
Shu Xiaohuang argued that comparing China’s mainstay J-20 with the F-35 is not entirely appropriate because the J-20 primarily focuses on air combat and rapid interception, with no visible indications of its capability for ground attacks from public information. Meanwhile, the F-35 is a versatile aircraft, able to engage in both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat with strong strike capabilities. It can also collaborate with the U.S.’s ongoing development of Joint All-Domain Command and Control, utilizing its counterforce capabilities at the frontline as a sensor to guide and control missiles from the back to strike targets.
“It can switch branches to command long-range hypersonic missiles to attack frontline targets. This is the advantage of the F-35.”
He believed that while China boasts about its achievements, the U.S.’s deployment places additional pressure on China. Moreover, it is not just the U.S. Air Force’s deployment; the U.S. Navy has begun deploying F-35Cs to replace the “Reagan” carrier with the “Washington” carrier. In the future, every branch of the U.S. military – Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps – will have F-35 aircraft. The Marine Corps started deploying F-35Bs several years ago, which can launch and land on amphibious assault ships, where one ship can carry up to 24 or 28 F-35Bs, augmenting the U.S. Navy’s carrier missions to address its shortcomings. The primary advantage of the F-35B is its ability to take off and land from amphibious assault ships, from where it can support the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier missions, enhancing its aerial combat capabilities in the region significantly.
Shu Xiaohuang stated that the U.S. is currently intensifying and expanding its future air capabilities. In the long term, the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation aircraft, called NGAD or the sixth-generation fighter, is the next air warrior in development.
In the short term, the Air Force is now pushing for CCA, which involves cooperative combat aircraft, allowing manned aircraft to control unmanned drones, enabling unmanned drones to carry out hazardous missions upfront autonomously. The key feature is that these aircraft are AI-controlled, requiring no human intervention, unlike China, which still uses old-fashioned technology with the J-20. This increases the USAF’s aerial combat capabilities substantially, providing excellent tactical and strategic advantages.
Additionally, the U.S. Air Force’s reinforcement of bomber deployments in the Indo-Pacific region is vital. Shu Xiaohuang also explained that previously, B-2, B-1, and B-52 bombers were stationed in Guam. After China conducted an exercise around Taiwan on May 23, the U.S. promptly sent four B-1 bombers to Guam. By rapidly deploying long-range-capable bombers in Guam and utilizing AGM158C long-range anti-ship missiles carried onboard, the USAF can strike the Chinese naval fleet from 500 kilometers away, leveraging its Joint All-Domain Command and Control to launch missiles from a distance quickly to support the Taiwan Strait.
“Taking off from Guam to Taiwan takes about 10 hours, whereas it might take two to three days for a carrier strike group to arrive. There’s concern that decisive developments could occur in the conflict before that point. Therefore, using bombers to launch missiles offers a faster response, and this is the U.S. Air Force’s deployment,” he stated.
Moreover, there’s the recent disclosure by U.S. media of the so-called “Hellscape” scenario. Shu Xiaohuang explained that based on this idea, the U.S. military plans to deploy a large number of unmanned ships mainly comprising the U.S. Navy’s unmanned surface vessels equipped with suicide drones. By utilizing unmanned drones on unmanned ships, the U.S. intends to create a hellscape in the Taiwan Strait, making it exceedingly difficult for China to advance. This plan demonstrates the U.S. Navy’s anticipated deployment strategy in the Indo-Pacific region.