【Epoch Times, October 27, 2024】Hello viewers, welcome to the special program “Election Outlook” on NTD News. I’m Yuting.
Gold: And I’m Jinshi.
Yuting: Alright, we are less than two weeks away from the US election. In this episode, we will analyze in-depth the critical role of the seven swing states in this election and the paths for Trump and Harris to reach the 270 electoral votes.
Gold: Additionally, we will provide detailed information on the election timing and fairness, covering the most comprehensive election viewing guide. Don’t miss out.
Yuting: Let’s get started.
Gold: In this year’s US election, 240 million Americans are eligible to vote, but only a small fraction, particularly the centrist voters in the seven swing states, holding a total of 93 electoral votes, will play a decisive role in determining the next President.
Yuting: Let’s first take a look at the four swing states in the “Sun Belt,” Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. These states border the Midwest and Mexico, highlighting immigration issues and feature a large African-American population due to their overlap with the “Cotton Belt.”
Gold: Starting with Arizona, home to semiconductor factories and the natural wonder “Grand Canyon,” it faces immigration issues due to the long border with Mexico. Historically a Republican stronghold, Arizona has gained attention with a significant increase in population and a large Hispanic voting bloc supporting the Democratic Party.
Yuting: In the past 12 elections, the Democratic Party won only twice in Arizona, once in 1996 with Clinton, and the other in the previous election with Biden. Biden’s success in flipping Arizona was driven by demographic changes, including a tripling in the local population, a majority of high-tech talents from California, and strong support from Hispanic voters.
Gold: Biden narrowly won Maricopa County, home to Tucson and Phoenix, in 2016, eventually securing the state. However, dissatisfaction with Biden’s immigration policy has raised hopes for a Republican comeback in Arizona this year, with polls showing Trump leading Harris by nearly 2 points.
Yuting: Additionally, Arizona hosts a significant Mormon population, especially in the neighboring state of Utah, extending to Arizona and Nevada. Historically Republican supporters, some Mormons switched to the Democratic Party due to disagreements with Trump’s rhetoric and policies. Their influence cannot be underestimated, considering their potential impact on election outcomes.
Gold: Let’s shift our focus to another Sun Belt swing state, Nevada. A classic swing state, Nevada has an equal tally of wins for both parties over the past 12 elections, with results matching national outcomes in ten races, earning it the nickname the “Octopus State.”
Yuting: Nevada, termed the “Octopus State” for its predictive nature, hosts a diverse population and has swung between parties in recent elections. The state’s economy, hit hard during the pandemic due to its heavy reliance on the tourism industry surrounding Las Vegas, has experienced significant job losses, high unemployment rates, and rising property prices, all of which have influenced voter sentiment.
Gold: Moving on to Georgia, the predominantly Republican state since 1984, faced a surprising upset by Biden in the 2020 election, following a 1,179-vote margin victory for Biden. Georgia’s substantial African-American population, one of the country’s largest, played a significant role in the 2020 Democratic win.
Yuting: Georgia’s capital, Atlanta, home to Fulton County, has garnered national attention for criminal proceedings against Trump related to election interference. Currently, polls indicate a close race in Georgia, with Trump leading within a 3-point margin, making the outcome uncertain.
Gold: Now, let’s look at another Sun Belt swing state, North Carolina, one of the largest swing states with 15 electoral votes. If Biden secures these states along with the Democratic strongholds, the 270-vote threshold is within reach, even if Trump wins the Sun Belt states.
Yuting: The swing state of North Carolina, favored traditionally by Republicans, faces a growing trend of political division, making it a crucial state to watch out for in the upcoming election.
Gold: The swing states of the Rust Belt, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, have transitioned to battleground states. Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, emerges as a critical battleground and tipping state in presidential elections.
Yuting: In Michigan, which has seen shifts in party dominance over the years, Trump’s narrow victory was overturned by Biden in 2020, showing the state’s influence on national elections.
Gold: Michigan witnessed dramatic election turnarounds in 2016 and 2020, highlighting the state’s pivotal role in shaping the electoral map.
Yuting: Pennsylvania, often a Democratic stronghold, saw the historic “Blue Wall” breach in 2016 by Trump, necessitating a strategic electoral approach in the state to regain political stability.
Gold: Wisconsin, another Rust Belt battleground, with 10 electoral votes, has played a decisive role in national elections. Wisconsin, a swing state embedded in regions historically favoring both parties, captures the essence of a tipping point in US presidential politics.
Yuting: Overall, these swing states hold the key to the electoral outcome, with each state’s voting schedule and fairness mechanisms closely monitored to ensure an accurate and transparent election process.
Gold: As the US approaches the presidential election, the sanctity and fairness of the electoral process are paramount, with stringent checks and balances in place to prevent malpractice and uphold democratic principles.
Yuting: The US election stands as a testament to the nation’s commitment to democratic values, requiring bipartisan oversight and adherence to ethical standards to ensure a free and fair election process.
Gold: The convergence of swing states and regions across the US highlights the significance of civic engagement and political participation in shaping the electoral landscape, exemplifying the democratic essence of the American electoral system.
Yuting: As the election results unfold, the resilience and integrity of the US democratic process are under scrutiny, demanding vigilance and transparency from all stakeholders to safeguard the sanctity of the electoral outcome.
Gold: The electoral outcome hinges on the collective participation and ethical conduct of voters, officials, and observers, underscoring the foundational principles of democracy and civic responsibility in the American electoral system.
Yuting: With the election night approaching, the American electorate anticipates a significant milestone in the democratic process, emphasizing the transformative power of civic engagement and electoral participation in shaping the nation’s future.
Gold: As the US embarks on a crucial electoral journey, the vibrancy and dynamism of the democratic process underscore the enduring legacy of civic engagement and political participation in shaping the nation’s political landscape and electoral outcomes.
Yuting: With the electoral horizon drawing closer, the American electorate’s commitment to democratic values and civic engagement reflects the nation’s democratic ethos and collective responsibility in shaping the electoral outcome.
Gold: As the US electorate prepares to exercise their democratic rights and responsibilities, the spirit of civic engagement and political participation underscores the foundational principles of democracy and collective decision-making in shaping the nation’s future.
Yuting: As the US electorate navigates the electoral landscape, the value of democratic engagement and civic responsibility shines through the electoral process, illuminating the transformative power of citizen participation and democratic representation in shaping the nation’s political future.
Gold: As the US electorate casts their votes and shapes the electoral outcome, the crucible of civic engagement and democratic responsibility underscores the enduring resilience and collective spirit of the American democratic process in shaping the nation’s political future.
Yuting: With the US election unfolding across the electoral landscape, the transformative power of civic engagement and democratic participation underscores the nation’s collective commitment to democratic values and civic responsibility in shaping the electoral outcome.
Gold: As the US electorate exercises their democratic rights and responsibilities, the spirit of civic engagement and political participation resonates across the electoral landscape, highlighting the enduring legacy of democracy and collective decision-making in shaping the nation’s political future.
Yuting: With the US election cycle reaching its climax, the transformative power of civic engagement and democratic participation underscores the enduring legacy of democracy and collective responsibility in shaping the nation’s political landscape and electoral outcomes.
Gold: As the US electorate embarks on a historic electoral journey, the spirit of civic engagement and democratic participation underscores the transformative power of citizen action and political participation in shaping the nation’s political future.
Yuting: As the US electorate participates in the democratic process, the principles of civic responsibility and political engagement resonate throughout the electoral landscape, highlighting the transformative power of democracy and collective decision-making in shaping the nation’s future.
Gold: As the US electorate exercises their democratic rights and duties, the ethos of civic engagement and democratic participation echoes across the electoral spectrum, illuminating the enduring principles of democracy and collective action in shaping the nation’s political trajectory.
Yuting: With the US election cycle reaching its pinnacle, the spirit of civic engagement and democratic participation resonates throughout the electoral landscape, underscoring