After Labor Day, the United States election officially entered the sprint stage. In 63 days, the final vote will decide who will lead the most powerful country in the world.
According to the report by the Associated Press on Tuesday, both presidential candidates have focused almost all of their remaining time and resources on seven swing states. Their campaigns are centered on three main topics: the economy, immigration, and abortion.
Both camps privately acknowledge that victory is not a sure thing as they enter the eight-week sprint towards election day. Since President Biden announced he would not seek re-election, the support rates for Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Harris, and Republican presidential candidate, former President Trump, have been neck and neck in most national polls.
Typically, most voters have only just begun to pay attention to the 2024 presidential election. Pennsylvania will kick off in-person absentee voting next week. By the end of this month, at least four states will start early voting, with more than a dozen states following suit by mid-October.
Harris and Trump are set to have their first televised debate next week since securing their nominations.
“We don’t focus too much on the polls,” Harris said at a rally in Michigan on Monday. “We need to act like we are the underdog in this election because we know what we are fighting for.”
Harris’ campaign team released a memo over the weekend still admitting being “clearly at a disadvantage” in the race.
Senior advisor to Harris, David Plouffe, said in an interview, “The situation is not favorable. The road to defeating Trump and winning 270 electoral votes for Harris is extremely difficult, but possible. That is the reality.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign team remains optimistic.
James Blair, the political director of Trump’s campaign, said, “As Labor Day approaches, we are entering a period where voters are starting to solidify their opinions. We feel good about the situation, we are energized, our people are vibrant, but there is still a lot of work to be done.”
In 2024, seven swing states—along with swing districts in Nebraska and Maine—will draw almost all candidates’ attention and resources in the next eight weeks. Each state has different regulations as elections are run by local authorities, and the electoral vote count differs.
Four swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—all have significant populations of African American and Latin American immigrants. Traditionally seen as Democratic strongholds, these two groups have shown lower support for Biden nationally but appear to be turning back to supporting Harris.
Paul Shumaker, an advisor to Thom Tillis, a Republican senator from North Carolina and a polling expert, said that even a slight increase in African American votes could give Harris the edge in North Carolina.
“If Harris can get African American voters to turnout at the same rate as Republicans in rural North Carolina, the Republican party is finished,” he said.
At the same time, Trump is aggressively campaigning in the Midwest battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These three states became a “blue wall” in 2020. Trump narrowly won these states in 2016, but lost all three in 2020.
Trump has invested more in advertising in Pennsylvania than any other state and also exceeds Harris’ advertising spending in the state.
According to a report by media tracking firm AdImpact, the advertising spending by both sides in the state will surpass $146 million from Tuesday until election day, a figure far exceeding any other state.
The Associated Press mentioned that if Trump wins in Pennsylvania alone, Harris will find it challenging to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.
Harris’ campaign team insists she has multiple paths to victory. For instance, her team is expected to spend twice as much on TV advertising in the next two months as Trump’s camp.
According to a report by AdImpact, the Harris team (including her campaign and joint super PAC) has booked over $280 million in TV and radio ads from Tuesday to the election date. In comparison, Trump’s team has reserved $133 million for the final push, although this figure is expected to increase.
So far, Harris has dominated the airwaves in all swing states except Pennsylvania and Georgia.
According to the latest memo from Harris’ campaign team, they have over 300 coordination offices and 2,000 field staff in swing states.
Trump’s campaign team stated on Tuesday that they have hundreds of full-time staff in each state, 300 Trump/Republican offices, nearly 2,000 paid canvassers, and actively involved volunteers in phone banking and door-to-door outreach.