Recently, the Chinese Communist Party’s military has released a series of propaganda videos titled “Tempering Fire,” claiming that the Chinese military has been tempered into steel. The videos are filled with political slogans of party culture, incorporating some so-called red history, but more prominently showcasing the training content of various branches of the Chinese military in recent years. However, it unexpectedly exposes another instance of “false combat capability.”
Tempering is a heat treatment process, traditionally indispensable in blacksmithing. Typically, the metal is heated to high temperatures, forged, and then rapidly cooled, significantly enhancing its strength and hardness. Over the past year, the Chinese military has undergone a massive purge, and is still undergoing political rectification, which can be considered a form of cooling. However, whether they reached high temperatures before and whether they truly turned into steel after cooling, the propaganda video “Tempering Fire” vividly provides answers to these questions.
In the first episode of “Tempering Fire,” the first unit described is the Chinese bomber corps (around 5 minutes into the video). The narrator claims: “Chairman Xi instructed our unit during his inspection, ‘Fight the open sky with loyalty to the Party, fly miles without getting lost.'”
When the US military and other air forces see such slogans, they may burst into laughter. Whether an aircraft gets lost during flight depends on the aircraft’s performance, the skills, and experience of the pilots. If the Chinese aircraft is not up to par and the pilot’s skills are lacking, even if they are “loyal to the Party,” it’s difficult to guarantee they will “fly miles without getting lost.”
In order to increase the range, the Chinese H-6 bomber converted its bomb bay into a fuel tank, but it can only claim an operational range of 3,500 kilometers, far from being able to “fly miles without getting lost.”
The subtitles in the video also mention: “Since the 18th Party Congress, a bomber unit has completed patrols in the South China Sea, flyovers of the island chain, and circled around Taiwan.” The narrator claims: “We must be at the forefront, on the front line.”
While the Chinese H-6 bomber has flown solo beyond the first island chain multiple times, entering the Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Japan, and circumnavigating from the south to the east of Taiwan, the limited range of Chinese fighter jets and the lack of aerial refueling capabilities mean the H-6 bombers have a hard time receiving fighter escort, indeed operating alone “at the forefront, on the front line.”
During World War II, due to the limited range of fighter jets, the US military’s bombers and German bombers often carried out many long-range bombing missions on their own. The US B-29 bombers were equipped with heavy machine guns on top, bottom, sides, and rear, enhancing their defense when flying in formation. At that time, fighters did not have missiles, yet US bombers still suffered major losses.
After World War II, the US developed aerial refueling capabilities, enabling fighter jets from the US and its allies to provide escort for bombers. While the former Soviet Union and Russia still occasionally send out bombers for long-range flights close to NATO, the US, and Canada, they are easily intercepted by fighters from various countries.
While the Chinese bombers must “be at the forefront,” the risk of being shot down in actual combat by enemy fighters and air defense missiles is high, but it’s also a desperate move. By featuring the H-6 bomber prominently in the propaganda video “Tempering Fire,” it may be implying that the H-6 bomber can still carry nuclear weapons, though the likelihood of a successful delivery would be very low, showcasing “false combat capability” from the beginning.
The Rocket Force was once heavily promoted, but after being purged, the promotion has significantly declined. In the first episode of “Tempering Fire” (around 6 minutes and 50 seconds into the video), it shows a Rocket Force unit simulating a fire assault. In the video, two squads of soldiers run out of two doors of a dormitory, apparently preparing to head to the launch garage. However, the two squads run in opposite directions and pass each other. When the two squads leave the dormitory, they continue running in opposite directions, raising questions about where they are supposed to go, likely staged for aesthetic purposes.
The following scenes are even more bizarre, as the soldiers, originally dressed in camouflage with backpacks, seemingly ready to depart at any moment, run into a changing room, remove their backpacks, and change into white coats and white hats.
The subtitles reveal that this is the final test for missile performance and quality. Apparently, the propaganda video was filming a test class at a Rocket Force base in China. They sit in front of computers and experimental devices, far from frontline missile units. The narrator claims: “The missile must listen to me, and I must listen to the Party.”
After the purge of the Rocket Force, the promotion of frontline missile units was put on hold. The Chinese Central Military Commission still seems uneasy, fearing that missiles might hit Beijing or the leadership compound in Zhongnanhai.
After a round of testing, the team leader reports: “Test completed, status is good, ready for deployment.”
It’s unclear if each missile at the Rocket Force missile base needs to undergo the same testing before being allowed to leave the base for the launch site. If that is indeed the case, the process of missiles entering the launch site could be significantly prolonged, leaving the base vulnerable to devastating strikes by the US and allied forces.
The deliberate focus on missile testing in the propaganda video seems to aim to show that the Rocket Force’s missiles undergo rigorous testing and are without issues. However, this inadvertently highlights the lack of confidence from the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party in the quality of Rocket Force missiles. The video no longer mentions terms like “Guam Express” or “Aircraft Carrier Killer,” suggesting even the creators acknowledge the lack of credibility.
In the first episode of “Tempering Fire” (around 9 minutes and 14 seconds into the video), it depicts a border defense battalion of the Chinese Army stationed on the plateau in 2024. It features an 18-year-old Tajik soldier named Kabri Kamri, who was injured during training but insisted on staying at the frontline.
The video also mentions a deceased soldier named Chen Xiangrong, who originally served in the 363rd Regiment of the South Xinjiang Military Subdistrict of the Xinjiang Military Region, stationed in the mountainous areas along the China-India and China-Nepal borders. In June 2020, amid clashes between Chinese and Indian forces in the Galwan Valley, 19-year-old Chen Xiangrong was killed in action, though the propaganda video omits the details of the China-India conflict, only mentioning that his comrades remember him. The footage is likely from this unit.
The Chinese military suffered greater losses in this conflict, which they have been trying to cover up. Chen Xiangrong, originally from Fujian, was sent to the high altitudes of the China-India border, clearly struggling with the environment. During physical confrontations with the Indian forces, Chinese soldiers were already at a disadvantage physically. The Xinjiang Military Region should have prioritized recruiting locals from Xinjiang, and likewise for the Tibet Military Region, but this goes against the Chinese Communist Party’s fears of local unrest, intentionally deploying soldiers from other provinces to the China-India border.
The propaganda video showcases an 18-year-old Tajik soldier who was injured during training yet is kept at the harsh frontline. The video claims he repeatedly requested to stay on the frontline, but such a decision is highly irresponsible towards him.
Leaving an injured soldier at the frontline requires others to care for him; in the event of another border conflict, he will face enormous risks and potentially become a burden to the team. Such a scenario would be unthinkable in professional armies of other countries. While the Chinese propaganda video seeks to highlight a minority soldier who is injured, it inadvertently exposes that the Chinese military is not a fully professionalized force.
The first episode of “Tempering Fire” concludes with the description of a political work meeting held by the Chinese Central Military Commission in Yan’an, Shaanxi from June 17th to 19th, 2024, emphasizing “political military construction” and loyalty to the Party. Professionalization is not the true goal of the Chinese military; maintaining its nature as the Party’s military is of paramount importance.
The second episode of “Tempering Fire” starts with the phrase: “Prepare to fight so you can avoid fighting. The less likely you are to fight, the more likely you are to be fought.” The video then delves into the role of drones in the battlefield, yet the first Chinese drone showcased appears strikingly similar to the US MQ-4 or MQ-9 drones. The video specifically mentions Xi Jinping’s remarks at the 2024 Two Sessions about developing “new combat capabilities,” indicating that China is developing drones into such capabilities.
These statements hold significant implications. China has been preparing for an offensive operation against Taiwan, but the wording resembles defensive preparations to deter adversaries and prevent potential wars. Does this mean China is not ready to launch an attack and has shifted to defensive postures?
The line “the less likely you are to fight, the more likely you are to be fought” is particularly intriguing. Does this imply that the Chinese military acknowledges its inability to fight and now fears retaliatory actions? It’s unclear why the propaganda video “Tempering Fire” would convey such candid messages, perhaps a deliberate message to the US military signaling China’s reluctance to initiate conflict.