The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded under high-pressure stability on today (18th), with the official meeting communique officially putting forward proposals to promote “deepening reform” and “Chinese-style modernization.” Experts say that this meeting was held in the midst of political and economic difficulties, revealing a conflict between the lines of Xi Jinping and Deng Xiaoping within the CCP, putting the authorities in a dilemma.
According to the official communique released on the evening of July 18, the Central Committee detailed the so-called “further comprehensive deepening of reform and advancement of Chinese-style modernization” that was officially “passed” during the meeting.
The communique claims that the Politburo of the CPC will “consistently promote comprehensive and strict governance of the party, achieve economic recovery and improvement,” asserting that “we must consciously give reform a more prominent position, closely centering on promoting Chinese-style modernization and further comprehensively deepen reform.”
The meeting mentioned phrases like “high-level socialist market economy system,” stating that “we must better leverage the role of market mechanisms,” and also highlighted the need to “build a unified national market.” The communique also specifically addressed “national security,” mentioning the need to “improve the mechanism for safeguarding foreign national security,” and emphasized the CCP’s “centralized and unified leadership” in fully deepening reform, as well as ensuring Xi’s control through political terms like “two establishments” and “two safeguards.”
Gong Xiangsheng, deputy researcher at the PLA Military and Operational Concept Research Institute of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense Studies, told the Epoch Times that based on the current communique, the listed items are vast and almost repeat all current policies. While this represents a comprehensive and extensive direction of reform, the content mostly reiterates old practices.
“Currently, the communique lacks novelty. Only when the complete document is released later can we see if there are new approaches in theoretical construction, and this can be used to discern whether Xi Jinping can put forward his own reform theory.”
Gong Xiangsheng stated that looking at the communique, it is evident that Xi Jinping is most concerned about political security and personal power control, and the economic part most relevant to reform must also be firmly grasped.
“However, the main issue causing China’s economic stagnation or even decline lies in excessive control and risk prevention, causing concerns about the safety of foreign capital and personnel, as well as international resentment due to forced technology transfers. These contradictions are created under the premise of emphasizing China’s own security.”
Earlier today, the CCP’s People’s Daily had published a comment, advocating for “great reform and opening up,” aiming to “further advance comprehensive deepening of reform.”
However, the topics of “deepening reform” and “Chinese-style modernization” previously claimed by the CCP have already sparked much criticism.
During the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee, the National Bureau of Statistics of the CCP coincidentally released a batch of economic data, but it was observed by the public that economic growth in the second quarter was below expectations, standing at 4.7%, lower than the first quarter’s growth of 5.3%. Yet, the official CCP emphasized that “looking at the first half of the year, year-on-year growth was 5.0%.”
The real estate crisis and weakened consumption have dragged down economic growth. Official data shows that consumer spending softened in the first six months of this year, with the total retail sales of consumer goods only growing by 3.7%. Real estate investment shrunk by 10.1%, and new home sales saw a decrease of 26.9%. These figures, however, are commonly questioned for their reliability.
Foreign investment banks have consequently adjusted their expectations for China’s economic growth based on this data. Goldman Sachs revised its annual GDP growth forecast for China from 5.0% to 4.9%, while Barclays reduced its forecast from 5.0% to 4.8%.
US political commentator Tang Jingyuan told the Epoch Times that the Third Plenum, originally scheduled to be held in November last year, was repeatedly postponed until this year due to serious crises within the CCP that Xi Jinping was unable to resolve at the time. It now appears that the crises have not been effectively resolved. “China’s economy is currently in dire straits. Xi Jinping has used all policy tools available and still cannot reverse the downward trend of the economy. Moreover, the economic crisis is deepening, and the disconnect with the international community is growing stronger.”
Regarding the so-called plan for deepening reform and Chinese-style modernization that was finally passed at the Third Plenum, Tang Jingyuan remarked that tangible actions need to be observed. The authorities are even retracting Deng Xiaoping’s limping economic reform and opening up from the past, wanting everything to be controlled by the Party. Therefore, the so-called deepening reform and modernization plan is nothing but a deception.
An odd incident occurred during the Third Plenum, with some analysts attributing it to the conflict between Xi and Deng’s paths.
On July 15, Xinhua, the CCP’s official media, published a long article titled “Reformer Xi Jinping,” portraying Xi as “another outstanding reformer after Deng Xiaoping” and labeling the new era of reform as “Xi-style reform.” However, the day after the release of this article, it was taken down domestically.
On July 17, a reporter from the Epoch Times could no longer find traces of the article when searching it on Baidu. However, on Google, apart from foreign media outlets such as Radio Free Asia, Voice of America, and South China Morning Post, local media outlets like Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po had reprinted it, and “Hong Kong 01” also reported on the topic.
Tang Jingyuan believes that this could only be an order from Xi Jinping. Disappearing a party media praising Xi Jinping signifies a major problem within the Party. The propaganda department suddenly faced significant political problems, and the article was taken down across the internet, indicating the confusion in Xi Jinping’s policy direction. Another reason is that the article positioned Xi Jinping as a reformer following Deng Xiaoping, which fundamentally was not what Xi Jinping desired. Xi Jinping always wants to be the first, not second to Deng Xiaoping, or even Mao Zedong.
“The individuals writing the article believed that Xi Jinping truly intended to continue the reform and opening up through the Third Plenum. But what Xi Jinping truly aims to implement is evident in the article he published in ‘Qiushi’ magazine, emphasizing the need to ‘confidence in self-reliance.’ The so-called confidence is Xi Jinping’s belief that his past decisions were entirely correct, and he must continue to adhere to them. For example, emphasizing party leadership in all aspects, prioritizing politics, decoupling from the West, engaging in great power confrontations, and expanding geopolitical influence – he is full of confidence.”
On July 16, “Qiushi” magazine published Xi Jinping’s article “Must persevere in self-confidence and self-reliance.”
Tang Jingyuan expressed that Xi Jinping is under significant pressure at the Third Plenum. The worsening economy and the increasing domestic calls to return to Deng Xiaoping’s reform path further accentuate his dilemma.
“Xi Jinping is now in a dilemma. While the Third Plenum proposed achieving Chinese modernization, presenting an apparently grand goal, his methods still vehemently deny Deng Xiaoping. Xi Jinping must establish a target within the Party. Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up almost led to the transformation of the communist regime, so he (Xi Jinping) intends to abandon it, yet he finds himself in a self-contradiction: he aims to achieve modernization while renouncing reform and opening, regressing to the era of Mao Zedong.”
Amidst the Third Plenum of the CCP, a claim of “historical rubbish time” circulated on Chinese social media, which official media refuted as more dangerous than the “lying flat” theory.
During the Third Plenum of the CCP, J.D. Vance, the running mate of the US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, was interviewed for the first time after receiving the nomination and highlighted that the Communist regime is the “greatest threat” to the United States.
From July 16th to 17th, the G7 trade ministers held a summit in Italy, with ministers stating that they will use “trade tools” if necessary to counter practices that distort the market, using harsher language compared to the previous summit’s release. While not explicitly mentioning the CCP, recent discussions on overcapacity have focused on Chinese export products.
On July 17, the CCP National Bureau of Statistics released the youth unemployment rate for the previous month, indicating that the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24 in urban areas of China, excluding students, was 13.2%, marking a continuous decline for the third consecutive month, compared to 14.2% in May. However, cries about the difficulty of finding jobs dominate online platforms.
Regarding the economic downturn issue, a CCTV commentary on July 15 quoted an official saying, “The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, severe, and uncertain; structural adjustments at home are beginning to show,” indicating that factors affecting economic growth are more complex than before. CCTV also mentioned that “geopolitical conflicts and international trade frictions are frequent, domestic effective demand is insufficient, enterprises face greater operational pressures, and key areas have more potential risks,” among other factors. However, it was then claimed that “the development trend of stability and improvement and long-term improvement will not change.”
China expert Wang He told the Epoch Times that the CCP’s ruling mechanism is facing significant challenges, and although the Third Plenum appears to have set high goals, the popular internet phrase in China of “historical rubbish time” strikes at the heart of the CCP. “The entire bureaucratic echelon knows that the CCP’s ship is sinking, and no one wants to save it. Only Xi Jinping is barely propping it up on the surface; no one below him is paying attention, including the Central Committee and the Central Politburo Standing Committee. Everyone is thinking about self-preservation and leaving themselves an exit strategy.”
Wang He stated that the entire Chinese economy is currently in turmoil. While some people still held illusions about the CCP, it is now clear that this Third Plenum runs deep. It is merely self-deception to claim that the situation is entirely positive, and the Party leader’s call for “firm self-reliance, self-strengthening, and self-confidence” is just a reflex action before the impending demise.
This rewritten and translated article provides an in-depth analysis of the recent developments surrounding the CCP’s Third Plenum and the challenges faced by Xi Jinping in addressing economic issues and internal conflicts within the Party.