The 20th Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is scheduled to be held in July this year. It is widely believed that the handling of the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang and the former Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu’s positions as CCP Central Committee members will be addressed. Commentator Gao Xin analyzed on May 3 that there are four possible outcomes for the handling of these two figures.
Prior to this, the CCP Political Bureau announced that the 20th Third Plenary Session of the CCP will be held in July this year. China expert Wang He and Shen Ming, a researcher and director of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security, both told Dajiyuan on May 1 that the personnel matters involving Qin Gang and Li Shangfu will be addressed during the Third Plenary Session. Radio France Internationale also suggested that the personnel arrangements for Qin Gang and Li Shangfu will be put on the table.
So how will Qin Gang and Li Shangfu be handled? According to commentator Gao Xin on May 3, there are five possible scenarios to consider.
The first possibility is that if CCP leader Xi Jinping has already decided to expel one of them from the party, an announcement of the expulsion may be made before the convening of the Third Plenary Session.
The second possibility is that if the investigation into Qin Gang and Li Shangfu or one of them has not been concluded before the Third Plenary Session, the meeting may announce the review report of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection on Qin Gang (Li Shangfu) and decide to revoke their Central Committee positions.
The third possibility is that the Third Plenary Session may directly impose the lightest party discipline on Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, with an announcement in the conference minutes of “giving XX (XXX) the punishment of revoking party positions,” along with administrative and military demotions.
The fourth possibility is that there may be no resolution during the Third Plenary Session. Instead, a decision to expel them from the party may be submitted to the Central Political Bureau for review at a later time before the Fourth Plenary Session next year.
Since Qin Gang “disappeared” in June last year, he was relieved of his duties as Foreign Minister and State Councilor in October of the same year. In February of this year, the Standing Committee of the Tianjin Municipal People’s Congress of the 18th CCP Central Committee stated that they accepted Qin Gang’s resignation as a deputy to the 14th National People’s Congress. However, the specific situation has not been officially announced. Li Shangfu has not made any public appearances since the end of August last year. He was also removed from the position of State Councilor. During this year’s Two Sessions, the spokesperson for the National People’s Congress press conference, Lou Qinjian, revealed to the media that Li Shangfu could not attend the sessions and was no longer a representative of the People’s Congress. Both individuals still hold the status of Central Committee members pending resolution.