The Fourth Plenary Session Ends, Overseas Observations: China’s Communist Party’s Decline Is Irreversible

The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) concluded yesterday, marking a wave of internal purges and an atmosphere of strict control. The official propaganda machine has been promoting the next five-year plan. Overseas observers who have long been watching the Chinese political landscape have taken to social media to comment, pointing out that this is a “crisis self-preservation” meeting, where Xi Jinping’s sense of security has intensified. Under his autocratic rule, the decline of the CCP seems irreversible.

Canadian writer and political commentator Sheng Xue posted expressing why Xi Jinping has not stepped down yet—it is because the accelerator of the CCP’s tyranny has not yet completed his mission.

Sheng Xue mentioned that since Xi came to power, he has purged a significant number of top military officials, resulting in more losses in leadership than in all the wars the CCP has been involved in combined. Now, fear permeates throughout the CCP’s military ranks; suspicion abounds, abilities have been replaced by fear, and professionalism has been replaced by loyalty to the regime. The military has become a group of people in military uniform who follow political orders like startled birds. This situation may reduce sacrifices and losses when anti-CCP forces and regional separatist movements take action.

She also pointed out that since Xi Jinping came to power, he has rapidly destroyed the international environment that the CCP has cultivated over decades through manipulation, deceit, and portraying themselves as victims for their own benefit. Xi has completely hollowed out the false foundation of the so-called economic miracle and prosperity development of the CCP. This decline is accelerating and irreversible.

Sheng Xue believes that dictators do not exit gracefully. At this moment, Xi Jinping is not only a ruler but also a hostage. The CCP has entered the late stage of totalitarianism: the more they want to stabilize their power, the more purges they carry out; the more purges, the deeper they drag the system into an abyss. The more ruthless the purges, the quicker the regime will collapse. Xi aims to achieve the ultimate accountability for the CCP’s tyranny.

Former Chinese naval officer Yao Cheng, who previously hinted at overthrowing Xi through military representatives, wrote that soldiers both inside and outside the 4th Plenary Session have demonstrated a firm determination to oust Xi. The fact that the expected objectives were not met is not surprising, considering the small number of military members in the Committee.

Yao Cheng stated that Xi, out of anger and humiliation, prevented all qualified military candidates from becoming full members, thus potentially causing military officials to distance themselves from the CCP. If pushed too hard, some might even consider leaving the Communist Party. It seems like there are strategists behind the scenes orchestrating all of this. This brilliant strategic plan, visible defeat but actual victory, can only be perfectly executed by generals who thoroughly understand Sun Tzu’s Art of War. Xi Jinping must be feeling frustrated.

Han Lianchao, Vice Chairman of Citizen Power, pointed out that the CCP’s 4th Plenary Session report once again emphasized the “two upholds and two ensures,” ostensibly showcasing the further consolidation of Xi Jinping’s supreme authority. However, such coercive political propaganda reveals the lack of authority and deep-seated insecurity of his rule.

He wrote, “Xi has been in power for three terms and still needs to constantly strengthen personality cult, indicating that there are many ‘two-faced individuals’ within the system. Most officials do not genuinely support Xi but are forced into passive loyalty due to anti-corruption measures and political pressure—this is the strange reality of today’s CCP officials.”

Veteran pro-democracy activist Wang Dan posted that the conclusion of the 4th Plenary Session further confirmed Xi Jinping’s policies and continued core position. Firstly, despite internal disagreements within the ruling CCP group, they will have consensus on the need for political stability amidst national and international crises. Secondly, given the lack of prestige and political strength among seniors to overthrow Xi Jinping within the party, the likelihood of a coup against him is low. However, Xi Jinping has entered a dilemma typical of a “dictator” who can only maintain authority through political purges, increasing the uncertainty of China’s political situation.

“In conclusion, I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic about the changes in China’s situation. The fundamental stance of patiently waiting and actively preparing remains unchanged,” he wrote.

Former Inner Mongolia official Du Wen wrote on social media that on the surface, this was a routine meeting to formulate the “15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development,” but upon closer examination of the full report, it becomes evident that this meeting was not about economic matters but a political purge and crisis meeting disguised as planning.

Comparing the 4th Plenary Session reports of the past decade, he believed that there has been a fundamental shift in the language style and political focus of this year’s document. The 4th Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee (2014) discussed “governing the country according to law,” the 19th Central Committee (2019) focused on “modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities,” the 3rd Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee (2024) still emphasized “comprehensive deepening of reforms,” while the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee (2025) completely changed its tone— the entire text was filled with words like “struggle,” “security,” “risk prevention,” and “self-revolution.” Phrases like “stormy seas” and “fearless struggle” reflect deep pessimism within the CCP about future economic prospects.

Du Wen believed that the portrayal of the “15th Five-Year Plan” merely masks the concentration of power and contraction of the system. The Xi Jinping regime has entered a typical “post-reform—quasi-wartime system.”

Du Wen pointed out that Zhang Shenmin’s promotion from the Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission to Vice Chairman signifies that the Military Commission has shifted completely from a “combat command body” to a “political security body.” The military is no longer preparing for warfare but for safeguarding against political upheaval.

He emphasized that the essence of the “15th Five-Year Plan” was not economic planning but political security planning. Today, the CCP emphasizes “struggle,” “security,” and “stability” more than ever, which indicates that they are more insecure and unstable than ever before. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was a political meeting disguised as the “15th Five-Year Plan” that aimed at self-preservation. It signals the CCP’s complete departure from the era of reforms and a full entry into the era of survival.