On April 16, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin had a video call with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun. This was the first extensive discussion between the defense ministers of both countries since November 2022. However, they diverged on the issues of Taiwan and the South China Sea. Experts believe that the Chinese call for “cherishing peace” is merely empty rhetoric forced by circumstances.
According to a statement released by the Pentagon after the call, the two sides discussed U.S.-China defense relations, regional and global security issues, with a focus on four main topics: the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the North Korean threat.
Military expert Qi Leyi told Epoch Times on April 17 that this conversation between the defense ministers of the two countries was based on the consensus reached during the Xi-Biden meeting in San Francisco in November last year. Video calls at the level of military chiefs of staff were conducted in December last year, the working meeting between the defense departments resumed in January, and the U.S.-China maritime military security consultation mechanism working group meeting also resumed in April, now followed by the defense ministers’ call. However, the significance of the defense ministers’ call is limited, as the Chinese defense minister does not oversee training operations nor incidents of naval collisions.
“Everything has been resumed, but the key is whether there is any practical effect. Currently, it is at least a response; we can only say that relations between the U.S. and China are starting to thaw.”
Since U.S. President Joe Biden’s call with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping on April 2, senior officials from both countries have engaged in various exchanges, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to China last week and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s upcoming visit to Beijing. The call between Austin and Dong Jun is part of these high-level dialogues.
The day before Austin’s call with Dong Jun, U.S. State Department Assistant Secretary for Asia Daniel Kritenbrink and White House National Security Council Senior Director Sarah Beran, along with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, met in Beijing with Chinese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Ma Chaoxu and Director of the Department of North American Affairs Yang Tao.
The U.S. statement mentioned that Kritenbrink and Beran also met with the Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China, Qiu Kaiming, to discuss issues across the Taiwan Strait.
Military expert and Deputy Researcher at the National Policy Research Foundation Li Zhengxiu told Epoch Times on April 17 that the U.S. is now looking to establish a dialogue with mainland China, and this call finally connected the military dialogue mechanism of both sides. “The main purpose, of course, is to avoid misjudging each other’s intentions and to consult on regional security.”
Regarding the call between the U.S. and Chinese defense ministers, the State Department statement already mentioned that managing areas of disagreement and cooperation to reduce the risk of misjudgment.
Regarding the Taiwan issue, the Pentagon stated that Austin reiterated the U.S. commitment to a consistent China policy that is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China joint communiques, and the Six Assurances, emphasizing the importance of peace and stability in the entire Taiwan Strait region.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense also issued a notice regarding the call, where Dong Jun stated that the Taiwan issue is a core interest core of China and will not tolerate any damage to it.
Li Zhengxiu stated that the only consensus when it comes to the Taiwan Strait issue is to avoid conflict. As for how to maintain the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S., mainland China, and Taiwan have different interpretations and views. At least now, both sides know where each other’s bottom line lies.
The Pentagon statement indicated that Austin emphasized the importance of respecting freedom of navigation in the international waters guaranteed by international law, stressing freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
Regarding the South China Sea issue, Dong Jun said the U.S. should recognize China’s firm position and respect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea.
Qi Leyi said that the U.S. and China each have their own views because it takes time to establish truly practical dialogue. Currently, there is a significant gap in the thinking of both sides, for example, in communication about maritime security mechanisms, discussing how to avoid dangerous situations when the two sides encounter each other at sea, both sides still insist on their own ideas. “The U.S. wants to navigate freely within the scope of international law, while China adamantly opposes any actions that undermine its sovereignty in the name of freedom of navigation. Therefore, one cannot rule out the possibility of dangerous incidents in the future.”
In a brief message from the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Dong Jun mentioned that the two militaries should explore ways to coexist, emphasizing the importance of cherishing peace and stability. A report from mainland financial news website Caixin highlighted the phrase “Value Peace in Military Exchanges” in its headline.
These three principles were actually mentioned by Xi during his call with Biden on April 2, referred to as the principles of Sino-U.S. relations for this year. However, back in 2018 during the U.S.-China trade war, Xi Jinping said that China believed in “an eye for an eye.”
The current situation has a significant difference compared to that time, chiefly in the deteriorating condition of the Chinese economy. Since the lifting of restrictions in early 2023, the Chinese economy has been stagnant. At the same time, China’s geopolitical relations with neighboring countries have worsened.
Qi Leyi stated that these statements from China should not be taken seriously; they are meaningless. “China is not willing to discuss specific issues in depth; it seems that they are afraid of revealing secrets or exposing their weaknesses, which is why they speak in general terms without specifics. The U.S. talks about more concrete matters, such as the 180 times of close encounters. Why do you do this, et cetera?”
However, it can be seen from this that at present, China very much wants to ease relations with the U.S. because both its domestic and international situations are unfavorable.
“This shift is obvious because the domestic and international circumstances are not in its favor, and now the whole world, led by the U.S.’s Western alliance, is gradually coming together. The first island chain has taken on new significance again, particularly this year, with the new upgrade of the U.S.-Japan alliance, as well as the beginning of triangular cooperation between the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines.”
He believes that these small multilateral mechanisms appearing are clearly aimed at China, so China must make a show of wanting to reconcile with the U.S.
Li Zhengxiu stated that the U.S. has been persistently employing a strategy of both fighting and making peace. The military deployment of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region is enhancing the overall scale and equipment of operations in the region. “They have set up a medium-range missile base in the Philippines with a range that can almost reach Shanghai, making it clear to China that they are willing to make peace, but they are also prepared for war.”
He believes that Xi Jinping’s statement of cherishing peace at least represents a gesture of goodwill because he is also aware of the gap between the Chinese military and the U.S. military. “In this aspect, no matter how tough you talk, it is of no use because military power is about strength. China is using its military power to expand outward, threatening neighboring countries. In this situation, the U.S. must stand up to help these countries speak out against mainland China. Mainland China has to face reality because it is now weaker than others.”
Since last year, Xi Jinping has been conducting a thorough clean-up of the rocket forces and equipment departments, including the dismissal of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, whom he appointed personally. The current Defense Minister Dong Jun took office on December 29, 2023, but has not yet become a member of the Central Military Commission and the State Council.
Li Zhengxiu said, Xi is also very clear that the problems within the Chinese military are so severe that it is fundamentally impossible for them to engage in external operations. “Several people who were promoted by him have been dismissed by him, showing that the problems within the People’s Liberation Army are very serious.”