After the US-China trade war reignited, the Chinese Communist Party has tightened control over domestic economic scholars’ speech. Apart from using pseudonyms, they are now required to submit their comments for review before speaking out. Some may even face dismissal, and certain research centers have been disbanded. Overseas experts believe that by cracking down on dissenting voices during the trade war, the CCP is showing signs of weakness. If everyone remains silent, it will only hasten the CCP’s demise.
President Trump announced on April 2 a plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners, with the tariff on Chinese goods set at 34%. In response, China declared on April 4 that it would impose a 34% tariff on all imported US goods and warned of a potential additional 50% tariff on China. Despite the complaints from Chinese businesses, the CCP remains adamant, proclaiming they will persist to the end.
Unusually, there has been minimal dissent within China against the CCP’s retaliatory measures toward the US. He Bin, former deputy director of the Public Policy Research Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, recently criticized China’s countermeasures on social media, calling them a misplaced effort akin to “if you dare to hit your wife, I will hit mine.” He described the CCP’s response as “shooting themselves in the foot.”
He Bin believes that the most effective strategy is not to engage in tit-for-tat retaliations but to adopt a comprehensive policy of economic openness by unilaterally eliminating tariffs on imports from all countries.
On April 6, media outlets such as The Paper released a statement from the Economic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, announcing the official dissolution of the “Public Policy Research Center” as of April 2, 2025. With this dissolution, activities carried out under the center’s name are deemed illegal, with the legal liability falling on individuals conducting such activities.
Prior to the closure of the Research Center, its director, Zhu Hengpeng, faced repercussions for crossing the CCP’s “red lines” in his statements, resulting in the upheaval of his affiliated economic research institute and reports of his detention earlier this year.
Furthermore, Chinese economist Fu Peng recently shared his views on the tariff war, likening Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to a buyer calling for negotiations with suppliers. Fu Peng’s commentary seems to have been censored as well.
Fu Peng, the Chief Economist at Northeast Securities, had previously mentioned at an event in November 2024 that official measures to boost the economy were no longer as effective as they were in 2008. Subsequently, he was temporarily silenced.
During the pandemic, there were debates within China on the continuance of the “zero-COVID policy.” In April 2022, prominent economist Hong Hao, formerly of China International Capital Corporation, was apparently censored and resigned from his position after cautioning against capital flight and the economic impact of strict COVID prevention measures. Similarly, in June of the same year, financial writer Wu Xiaobo faced censorship for highlighting the deterioration of the Chinese economy.
As the restrictions on speech were lifted, the Chinese economy has remained stagnant since 2023, with youth unemployment persisting at high rates. Despite this, the authorities continue to promote the narrative of economic prosperity, further tightening the space for free expression.
At the end of 2024, Gao Shanwen, Chief Economist at Guotou Securities, was silenced following his remarks at the company’s 2025 investment strategy meeting, where he suggested that China’s economic growth had possibly been overestimated by 10 percentage points in the past three years. Recently, The Wall Street Journal cited sources stating that Xi Jinping ordered an investigation into Gao Shanwen.
Reports indicate that the CCP has demanded stricter reputation risk management for chief economists, requiring them to seek approval before participating in events, making statements, and conducting background checks on potential hires.
Taiwan’s National Chengchi University professor of National Development Studies, Li Youtan, expressed that the authoritarian nature of the CCP, coupled with Xi Jinping’s all-encompassing power, stifles freedom of expression and innovation, leading to potential misjudgments. The suppression of dissenting voices and the rise of hardliners are common under authoritarian rule.
Li Youtan believes that by excessively controlling speech, the CCP hinders the exchange of ideas, leading to persistent policy mistakes that could ultimately result in the economic collapse of China. He sees this as an opportunity for China’s democratization to unfold peacefully for the benefit of the people.
A scholar in Australia, Li Yuanhua, commented to Epoch Times that the CCP’s heightened control over speech amid the trade war signifies its weakening position. “When they silence experts who could pinpoint critical issues, it shows the CCP’s fear.” Li further stated that the CCP’s unilateral confrontation with the US and the ensuing silence could accelerate its downfall. “Those who speak up and offer policy adjustments could slow the regime’s demise. At this point, its downfall is inevitable, and its desperation will become more apparent.”
These recent events highlight the escalating control over speech and dissent within China, indicating a growing sense of vulnerability within the ruling party as it grapples with internal and external pressures.