37-year-old Mary Meng works at a Chinese technology company in Shanghai, and she is extremely busy with work, under immense pressure, leaving her with no time to even consider the possibility of having a second child.
“The work pressure is so high that I don’t even have time to spend with my child,” she told Reuters, mentioning that she already has a son in primary school, and the idea of “taking care of two children” is something she can’t even fathom.
In China, Mary Meng’s mindset resonates with many people, especially women. As the Chinese people face increasing survival pressures, the number of childbearing women in China is rapidly decreasing.
The United Nations defines the childbearing age as 15 to 49 years old. Mainland experts say that in the next 10 years, the number of childbearing women will decrease by 4 million annually, resulting in fewer than 10 million newborns each year.
In 2022, China experienced negative population growth for the first time in 61 years, with aging and a declining birth rate becoming fundamental national issues. The Chinese Communist Party announced the establishment of a “child-friendly society” program at last month’s Third Plenum, promising to implement measures advocated by population experts for a long time, such as reducing the costs of raising children and education.
However, what puzzles these experts is that the authorities also aim to encourage more people to move into cities to stimulate housing demand and boost the battered real estate market. Additionally, by increasing the urban population, the authorities are trying to enhance productivity and strengthen consumption to revive the sluggish economy.
According to Reuters analysis, this latest push for urbanization overlooks basic demographic principles. In cities, high housing costs, limited living space, expensive education, and residents being preoccupied with livelihoods for most of their day can lead to even lower birth rates.
The infertility rate for Chinese couples has soared from 2% in the 1980s to 18%. Doctors attribute this to factors such as urban employment pressures and industrial pollution.
The latest data from the Chinese Communist Party’s economic planning department shows that in 2020, the fertility rate in rural areas of China was 1.54, slightly higher than the national average of 1.3. In 2023, the fertility rate in Shanghai was only 0.6, far below the national average of 1.1.
Following World War II, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan underwent urbanization and industrialization processes at a pace faster than most other countries, resulting in their birth rates dropping to the lowest globally.
Samir KC, a professor at the Asian Population Research Institute at Shanghai University, states that “population size is always one of the key factors driving the economy.”
For a stable population, the fertility rates of countries must reach 2.1. However, 21-year-old Poppy Yu has no desire to have children.
Working at a film production company in Beijing, she works six to seven days a week. She says, “I have no money, and no energy.”
The so-called “child-friendly society” proposed by the Chinese Communist Party primarily focuses on reducing the costs of raising children. However, Yun Zhou, a demographer at the University of Michigan, argues that simply reducing the costs of raising children won’t solve the issue of declining birth rates; it will only burden women with household responsibilities.
Mary Meng believes that unless the Chinese people regain hope for an improved economic life, no policy will be effective.
“Everyone now believes there is no future at all,” she says. “No matter how hard you work, it’s just about survival.”
Countries like France and Sweden, which have successful population policies, have stronger labor rights and robust social welfare systems to rely on.