The US presidential election is set to take place on November 5th, with both former Republican President Donald Trump and current Democratic Vice President Harris in the race. Reuters analysis indicates that regardless of the victor, the US-China tech war is likely to escalate, with the difference lying in the strategies or tools each candidate will employ.
According to officials from the Biden and previous Trump administrations, industry experts, and individuals closely involved in the campaign, the new US government is expected to take new measures to curb the influx of less advanced Chinese chips, smart cars, and other imported goods to the US. Meanwhile, more restrictions are likely to be imposed on the export of chip manufacturing tools and high-value artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China.
Democratic candidate Harris has pledged during the presidential campaign to ensure that “America, not China (the CCP), wins the competition of the 21st century,” while Republican candidate Trump sees escalating tariffs as a solution, including countering China’s technological advancements. Trump emphasizes solving issues through increased tariffs.
In summary, whether Harris or Trump wins the presidential election, the battle to prevent American funds and technology from enhancing the military and AI capabilities of the Chinese Communist Party is bound to intensify.
Former National Security official under the Biden administration, Peter Harrell, states, “We see a new front opening up in the US-China tech Cold War, focusing on data, software, and connected devices.”
Last month, the US proposed regulations prohibiting internet-connected cars manufactured using Chinese components, and earlier this year, passed a law requiring TikTok to sever ties with its Chinese parent company ByteDance by next year, or face a ban on operation in the US.
“If a Chinese company could access and provide (updates on) equipment in the US, it would raise a lot of concerns,” Harrell said. “Internet-connected cars and TikTok are just the tip of the iceberg.”
Harrell suggests that if Harris wins the election, she may continue to collaborate with allies, much like the Biden administration, to prevent American technology from aiding the Chinese military.
On the other hand, the Trump administration may act swiftly, as it has in the past.
Former chief of staff to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Jamieson Greer, says, “I think we learned from President Trump’s first term that he tends to take action.” He maintains close ties with Trump’s campaign.
Nazak Nikakhtar, who served as a Commerce Department official in the Trump administration and knows the current advisors to the former president, expects the Trump administration to implement “more stringent export control policies towards China (CCP).”
She anticipates a significant expansion of the Department of Commerce’s “entity list” to include subsidiaries and business partners of listed companies. US companies exporting to entities on this list would face restrictions and require prior permits. Trump placed the CCP-supported Huawei on the “entity list” for violating sanctions.
Nikakhtar states that permits to export American technology to China are also likely to be denied.
She claims that if the Trump administration restricts chip imports from China, or even imposes restrictions on “certain products containing these chips,” she would not be surprised.
Bill Reinsch, who served as a Commerce official during the Clinton administration, believes Trump may use a “sledgehammer” approach to combat transactions with China, while Harris would employ a “scalpel” to address the issues.
“Trump’s approach is comprehensive, as evidenced by his current tariff proposals,” Reinsch points out.
Trump had previously indicated imposing tariffs of 10% or 20% on all imports (not just Chinese goods), with tariffs of 60% or higher on imports from China.
The Biden administration deems targeted tariffs necessary, including plans to increase the semiconductor tariff rate from 25% to 50% by 2025.
The CCP has repeatedly emphasized safeguarding its interests. After the Biden administration implemented a series of export controls on US chips and chip manufacturing equipment last year, China retaliated by targeting US memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology. The US accused Beijing of penalizing other American companies amid escalating tensions.
Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross under the Trump administration stated that the US needs to be tough on China but must also have a strategy.