Taiwan’s National Security Bureau points out that the internal economic and social situation in the Communist Party of China (CCP) is severe. Despite the economic downturn, the CCP has allocated a central defense budget of over 1.78 trillion Renminbi (approximately 0.25 trillion US dollars) this year, highlighting the aggressive nature of the CCP’s military policy.
The Legislative Yuan’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee invited the Director of the National Security Bureau, Tsai Ming-yan, to present the “National Intelligence and National Security Bureau Business Report” along with other senior officials from relevant intelligence agencies, and undergo questioning on the 9th.
Tsai Ming-yan pointed out that international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have assessed that China’s economy is facing problems such as overcapacity, monetary tightening, lack of consumption and investment momentum, as well as foreign capital withdrawal. The Chinese economy continues to perform poorly, leading to protests by various groups including not only migrant workers but also civil servants, healthcare professionals, and finance industry workers. In 2024, there was a surge in public protests.
He mentioned that of the over 3,000 public protest incidents in China last year, more than 75% were related to violations of people’s economic rights, and these incidents spread from southern provinces to northern regions. The high youth unemployment rate persists, exacerbating negative and pessimistic attitudes like “lying flat” and “escape from the world”. People have been using activities like the “Night Ride in Kaifeng” and Halloween costumes to mock current events and seek emotional release, escalating the risks associated with China’s economic and social issues.
Furthermore, Tsai Ming-yan stated that China’s long-term economic weakness has also impacted local fiscal revenue, increasing debt burdens. Local governments have resorted to “cross-provincial arrests” of private entrepreneurs, sealing off or freezing assets of non-local companies, to raise funds, leading to a growing lack of trust by private enterprises in CCP governance and affecting investment willingness.
Tsai Ming-yan mentioned that the CCP handled nearly 890,000 officials last year, including 73 provincial-level and above leaders, marking the highest record since Xi Jinping took office as General Secretary of the CCP. However, Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption efforts have further exacerbated governance issues such as “inaction” and “formalism,” weakening governance efficiency.
Tsai Ming-yan pointed out that since last year, the CCP has conducted 7 sea trials of the “Fujian-class” aircraft carrier, continued mass production of the J-20 stealth fighter, expanded construction of amphibious assault ships, and intensively unveiled new types of stealth bombers, new early warning aircraft, and the Red Flag-19 interceptor missile, among other weapon systems (research progress and combat performance are yet to be verified). Despite the economic downturn and escalating debt levels, the central defense budget has been allocated with over 1.78 trillion Renminbi this year, growing for the third consecutive year by 7.2%, surpassing economic growth rates, thus highlighting the aggressive nature of the CCP’s military policy.
In the face of the complex and changing global geopolitical and regional security situation, the national security intelligence team will continue to collaborate closely with relevant government departments, and enhance intelligence partnerships with international allies. Through comprehensive cooperation and exchange mechanisms, a resilient national security intelligence network will be constructed. Tsai Ming-yan hopes that the people of the country will continue to offer their support.