In recent days, the Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have led to ongoing tension in the Taiwan Strait. Previously, the U.S. think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), released a report analyzing the five major challenges that China faces in invading Taiwan. The report suggests that if the majority of Taiwanese people resist, China will confront even more formidable challenges.
According to a report released earlier this year by the Council on Foreign Relations, the challenges China would face in invading Taiwan were analyzed from a military perspective.
Firstly, crossing the Taiwan Strait is highly dangerous. The Taiwan Strait is over 90 miles wide, with turbulent waves, and combined with two monsoon seasons and other extreme weather conditions, only a few months out of the year are suitable for a naval invasion. Additionally, transporting tens of thousands of soldiers across the Taiwan Strait would require thousands of ships and weeks of time, with each crossing taking several hours. This allows Taiwan to target ships and Chinese military forces at potential landing points and set up obstacles.
Secondly, after crossing the strait, “there are few landing points.” The western coast of Taiwan, closer to mainland China, is mostly shallow water areas, forcing Chinese military to anchor further offshore, allowing Taiwan’s missiles and artillery to target them. The eastern coast of Taiwan consists of cliffs and steep cliffs, making it impossible for invading forces to climb. To enter major population centers in Taiwan, they can only pass through a few narrow passages and tunnels, which Taiwan can destroy or defend.
Thirdly, Taiwan has a “mountainous and rugged terrain.” Even if Chinese forces could establish a beachhead in Taiwan, it would be difficult to navigate in the steep and dense terrain. In contrast, the Taiwanese military would have the advantage of defending in such terrain, being able to launch guerrilla warfare from hidden positions in the mountains.
Fourthly, Chinese forces are bound to get caught in Taiwan’s “strategic throat.” Limited options for beaches and ports, difficulty in crossing the entire island, and political considerations lead China to seize control of Taiwan’s capital, Taipei. However, capturing Taipei and establishing complete control over Taiwan is “extremely difficult” because Taipei is surrounded by mountains and has only a few routes into the city, which Taiwan’s military can exploit to strike against Chinese forces. Additionally, the Taiwanese military can also destroy major ports, tunnels, and highways to prevent China from taking the city.
Lastly, the “costly urban warfare.” Given Taiwan’s geography, most of the 23 million Taiwanese reside in a few cities, with 7 million in Taipei alone. Therefore, if China were to invade Taiwan, they would have to engage in urban and guerrilla warfare, leading to a “time-consuming and resource-intensive aggression.”
The report concludes by emphasizing that Taiwan has inherent advantages in defense, making invasion operations extremely difficult, costly, and uncertain. However, compared to natural barriers such as mountains, ports, roads, and the ocean, the determination of the Taiwanese people to resist invasion may be the key factor. If the majority of Taiwanese people are determined to resist, China’s invasion operation will face even more formidable challenges.