The Taiwan Foundation for National Policy Research held a seminar on “G7 Summit, European Situation, and the Axis of China, Russia, and North Korea” on the 21st, inviting experts and scholars to share their views on the topic.
Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China, Tian Zhongguang, delivered a speech as a guest, stating that the current international situation is turbulent and unstable. He often encourages new colleagues to bravely face the challenges of the times. The ROC government sent 50 million masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing international humanitarian efforts that significantly elevated Taiwan’s international status. The administration of Lai Ching-te has put forward three main pillars of foreign policy: democracy, peace, and prosperity. Apart from maintaining the democratic camp and safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Strait, they hope to expand foreign relations by leveraging Taiwan’s indispensable position in the high-tech industry.
The seminar held by the National Policy Research Institute discussed “The Axis of China, Russia, and North Korea and the Security Situation in the Indo-Pacific” in the first half. Deputy Director Guo Yuren stated that Putin’s visit to Beijing in May aimed to discuss matters such as the Siberia No. 2 gas pipeline with an annual capacity of 500 billion cubic meters and providing military support for the Russia-Ukraine war, but it apparently did not meet the set goals. Therefore, his subsequent visit to North Korea and Vietnam is seen as a measure to constrain the considerations of the Chinese Communist Party. It is expected that the CCP will not openly assist Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war before the end of the year.
Dong Liwen, Executive Director of the Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation, mentioned that Putin’s visit to North Korea signed a strategic cooperation agreement to break through the blockade and resource shortages. The cooperation between China, Russia, and North Korea in resisting the United States is a fact, but the three countries do not form an alliance. Their positions differ not only on the security issues of the Korean Peninsula but also on their attitudes towards the Russia-Ukraine war. They only become a core group when confronting the United States. At the recent G7 summit, Biden and Zelensky signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement, representing the U.S.’s security commitment to Ukraine.
Professor Fan Shiping of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan Normal University stated that it is unlikely for Asia to form an Asian Warsaw Pact mechanism involving China, Russia, North Korea, and even Iran due to different calculations within each country. Taiwan still maintains a considerable level of grassroots connections with Russia and North Korea. Although Russia supports the One-China Policy, they are somewhat dissatisfied with the CCP for not fully supporting Russia during the Russia-Ukraine war.
Researcher and Director of the Institute of Defense Strategies and Resources at the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, Su Ziyun, noted that the contents of the G7 summit communiqué indicate that NATO and other democratic countries have reached a consensus and are prepared to implement economic sanctions such as tariffs on China for supporting Russia, as well as further technological controls. They may also halt military dialogues and other exchanges. In response to the latest international developments, Taiwan should seize the opportunity to enhance its defense capabilities, increase allied trust and assistance, enhance diplomatic discourse power, and improve digital economy and technological security and protection by enacting laws such as the “Sensitive Technology Protection Law” and aligning with international standards.
Legislator Lin Junxian expressed that in recent years, a new axis of China, Russia, and North Korea has formed in geopolitics. On the other hand, the U.S. has used the Russia-Ukraine conflict to contain Russia, thereby restraining China. China’s military expansion and economic threats in recent years have surprisingly elevated Taiwan’s international status. The Taiwanese government must make use of international strategic opportunities, garner international support, such as at the recent international computer expo where important global technology leaders gathered in Taiwan, showcasing Taiwan’s strengths.
Legislator Chung Jiabin commented that in the face of threats from China, Taiwan should not only enhance its position through economic strength for greater security but also consider transforming economic partners into supporters, especially by fully leveraging the investment resources of Taiwanese businesses in India and ASEAN countries. International cooperation and development are Taiwan’s strengths, and through sovereign funds backing investments in various countries with government-subsidized interest rates, Taiwan’s position can be further enhanced.
The second half of the seminar discussed “G7 Leaders’ Summit and the Current European Situation.” Researcher Lin Zhengyi from the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica mentioned that the G7 communiqué for the first time supports Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, hoping to assist Taiwan’s efforts to participate in the World Health Assembly. G7 members are more concerned about China’s expansion and oppose China’s use of maritime militia and coast guards in the South China Sea to impede freedom of navigation and oppose China’s militarization and intimidation in the South China Sea.
Professor Shen Youzhong from the Department of Political Science at Tunghai University stated that although the European Parliament has limited regulatory power over internal affairs of each country, its elections every five years remain an indicator of political developments in various countries. Compared to the previous election that mainly focused on human rights issues, this election cycle is more concerned with national security and post-pandemic economic recovery. With the completion of the European Parliament elections, facing an increasingly polarized and right-leaning Europe, the EU’s unity and support for Ukraine will face significant challenges. The upcoming French parliamentary elections at the end of June and the German federal elections next year are key indicators for observing the political direction of EU member states.
Assistant Professor Lin Yingyou from the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University mentioned that countries are pondering the lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war. The organizational structure and military system of the Chinese military heavily resemble Russian styles, and the poor performance of the Russian military in Ukraine naturally raises concerns about the Chinese military. In April 2024, the Chinese military underwent organizational adjustments, and Taiwan should pay attention to the integration effects and key threats to Taiwan.
President Wang Hongren of the National Policy Research Institute mentioned that the rise of far-right forces may trigger more debates and challenges within the European Parliament regarding support for Ukraine. However, the main viewpoint of mainstream EU parties remains continuing support for Ukraine against Russian aggression. He believes that due to Taiwan’s strategic importance, especially in technology and regional security roles, there may be increased attention on Taiwan’s position under the influence of far-right forces. The EU’s official stance towards Taiwan has always been in support of Taiwan’s democratic governance, which is expected to remain stable, and even strengthen support for Taiwan’s participation in international organizations.
Legislator Chen Guanting mentioned that the European Parliament elections influence the EU’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and international developments. The extensive economic sanctions against Russia by the EU are unprecedented, and the focus going forward should be on how to maintain their strength and impact. Japan has substantially altered its international security policy due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is strongly supportive of Ukraine. Following the Crimea War in 2014, Ukraine increased its defense budget from 1% to 3%, and after the Russia-Ukraine war, it had to further raise it to 3%–3.5%. Regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait, he stated that whether Xi Jinping resorts to using force against Taiwan entirely depends on military strength, so Taiwan’s defense budget should be increased from 3% of Gross Domestic Income (GDI) to 6%.
Chairman Tian Hongmao of the National Policy Research Institute mentioned that the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts such as the Har conflict are shaping international geopolitics. National security and stability in the Taiwan Strait are core interests for Taiwan. On the other hand, continuous economic development is essential for defense and national security. The CCP will hold the Third Plenum in mid-July, which is of great concern. The upcoming U.S. presidential election at the end of the year will have wide-ranging implications and is closely watched by the international community; thus, 2024 is an extraordinary year for international politics.