Taiwanese meteorological experts stated that today (22nd), daytime temperatures in various places are as hot as midsummer. From the 23rd to the 28th, a stagnant front will linger near Taiwan for a consecutive 6 days, likely to bring about severe localized weather, urging people to be vigilant against disasters.
Dr. Wu Derong, an associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University in Taiwan, wrote an article titled “Today Feels Like Midsummer, Stagnant Front Lingering North and South from Tomorrow” on Sanlih Weather: A Big Reveal, indicating that the latest (8 PM on the 21st) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model simulation shows that today will be mostly sunny with some clouds in various areas. It will be “hot as midsummer” during the day, slightly cool in the morning and evening. There is still a probability of temperatures exceeding 38 degrees Celsius in parts of central and southern Taiwan as well as in Taitung, reminding people to use sunscreen and prevent heatstroke.
Dr. Wu mentioned that there is a chance of localized showers or thunderstorms in the northern parts, northeast regions, and some mountainous areas in the afternoon. The temperature forecast for different regions is as follows: 21 to 33 degrees Celsius in the north, 21 to 37 degrees Celsius in the central region, 22 to 38 degrees Celsius in the south, and 20 to 37 degrees Celsius in the east.
Regarding the latest model simulations, Dr. Wu stated that from April 23rd to the 28th, the stagnant front will hover north and south near Taiwan. Although the front structure is not solid, occasional strong southwest winds may carry warm and humid air, creating a highly unstable atmospheric environment. This condition is conducive to the development of “mesoscale convective systems,” which often bring about localized and severe weather events such as thunderstorms, strong winds, heavy rain, hail, etc. People should be cautious about the possible impact of disasters caused by these weather conditions. Once the front passes or runs out of energy, there may be a temporary break in the weather.
Dr. Wu added, “On April 29th, the stagnant front will move northwards; on April 30th and May 1st, it will move southwards again. The simulations for the end of the period are still being adjusted, but they have not deviated from the pattern of the stagnant front lingering north and south.”
Furthermore, he explained that theoretically, the spatial and temporal variations of “mesoscale convective systems” two days later are generally difficult for “medium-term models” or “AI (Artificial Intelligence) models” to accurately simulate. In such cases, simulations from “short-term models” must be combined with the process of “real-time forecasting” through timely updates to compensate for technological limitations. Therefore, during this period, it is essential to pay special attention to the latest information to take preventive measures.