Taiwanese officials have recently indicated that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may conduct military exercises near Taiwan this week during President Tsai Ing-wen’s National Day speech, in an attempt to pressure Taiwan to accept its sovereignty claim.
Tsai Ing-wen is set to hold a grand celebration in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on October 10th, where she will deliver an important speech to commemorate the 113th anniversary of the Republic of China.
A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters that based on the collected intelligence and analysis of possible actions by the CCP, Taiwan believes that regardless of what Tsai Ing-wen says, China could carry out exercises as “this could likely be a pretext.”
Shortly after Tsai Ing-wen took office in May, the CCP launched “punitive” exercises targeting Taiwan, citing as a response to “separatist behavior,” deploying heavy armed warplanes and conducting simulated attacks, while CCP state media criticized the new President Tsai Ing-wen.
This exercise was dubbed “Joint Sword-2024A”, drawing attention from various countries, including the United States.
The senior Taiwan security official suggested that this time, China might label the exercise as “Joint Sword-2024B.”
In an internal security memo, Taiwan authorities stated that they believe the CCP might blame the exercises on what it perceives as “provocation” in Tsai’s speech.
The memo mentioned that the CCP “continuously tests the red lines of various countries, maximizing its actions in gray areas,” referring to military maneuvers conducted without actual combat to test and pressure the armed forces of other countries.
A diplomatic source in Taipei informed Reuters that a factor possibly restraining China’s military response to Tsai Ing-wen’s speech is the nearing U.S. presidential elections, as China does not wish for tensions in Taiwan to suddenly become an international focal point before the voting.
The CCP has consistently claimed democratic Taiwan as part of its territory. However, Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party in power reject China’s sovereignty claim, stating that only the Taiwanese people can determine their future.
(This article is compiled with reference to reports from Reuters)