On November 17 and 18, two communication cables connecting the Baltic Sea with Northern and Central European countries were suspected to have been intentionally severed. Investigators have focused on the Chinese bulk carrier “Yi Peng 3.” Initially, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs only stated that they were maintaining communication. After strong remarks from Sweden, on November 29, China expressed willingness to cooperate with the investigation. Analysis suggests it may be merely a perfunctory gesture. On November 29, Lithuania expelled three Chinese embassy staff involved in the investigation, prompting China to “strongly condemn” the move on Monday (December 2).
According to international media reports, two undersea fiber optic communication cables in Swedish territorial waters in the Baltic Sea were damaged between November 17 and 18. Maritime data shows that a bulk carrier flying the Chinese flag, “Yi Peng 3,” passed through the location of the cables around the time they were cut. The two damaged cables connect Finland and Germany, as well as Sweden and Lithuania.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has suggested that the cables were likely deliberately damaged. “No one believes these cables were accidentally severed.” Swedish authorities are also investigating suspects of the “sabotage activities.”
For over a week, the “Yi Peng 3” has been forced to anchor in the Baltic Sea, surrounded and monitored by naval vessels and coast guard ships from European countries.
Currently, a special task force composed of Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania is attempting to determine whether the crew of this Chinese vessel intentionally severed the cables by dragging anchors on the seabed.
On November 28, Sweden officially requested China’s assistance in investigating the cutting of the Baltic Sea cables. However, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied responsibility for the incident. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated during a routine press conference on November 29 that “China (the Chinese Communist Party) is willing to cooperate with relevant countries to ascertain the truth. Currently, China and Sweden are in close communication on this issue.”
Taiwan’s National Policy Foundation deputy researcher Li Zhengxiu told Epoch Times that regarding the destruction of the Nordic cables, China may not currently be aware of the evidence against them, hence their cautious response of cooperating with the investigation.
Li Zhengxiu further stated that even if it is confirmed that a Chinese vessel destroyed the cables, China may argue that it was an accidental occurrence during the vessel’s operations.
He also remarked that with Trump taking office as U.S. President in January and recent shifts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin and Zelensky have begun contemplating how to achieve a ceasefire. China, however, continues to disrupt the situation in Europe. If there is a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, the next target for Europe and the U.S. will likely be China. Therefore, China must quickly show cooperation with the investigation on the surface and adapt its response based on the changing circumstances.
Head of the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research Institute’s Chinese military and operational concepts division Ou Xifu told Epoch Times that in the past, Chinese fishing vessels have been involved in multiple incidents of damaging undersea cables near Taiwan. Although there is no evidence, the repeated occurrences indicate a high likelihood of deliberate sabotage, which is one of the tactics used in China’s hybrid warfare or gray zone confrontations. He believes that China’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation appears to be their acknowledgment of the weakness of their argument and the need to provide a superficial response.
Director of the National Security Division of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research Sheng Mingshi stated in an interview with Epoch Times that if this incident involves actions of cooperation between China and Russia, or if there is a clear strategic intent, China’s official agreement to cooperate with the investigation may merely be a verbal commitment.
“China (the Chinese Communist Party) may be simply dragging their feet or providing superficial gestures, so this investigation may not proceed smoothly. If Russia is involved, visible results from the investigation may not be achieved in the short term,” he added.
China’s Foreign Ministry statement on November 29, pledging cooperation with the investigation, seems to have failed to calm the diplomatic storm.
On the same day, Lithuania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced in a statement that three personnel from the Chinese embassy in Lithuania had been declared persona non grata for their actions violating the Vienna Convention and Lithuanian law. According to Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry statement, the aforementioned Chinese individuals were given a week to leave the country.
While the statement did not specify the details of the behavior in which the Chinese personnel were involved, international media such as Agence France-Presse and Reuters have mentioned the recent incidents of undersea cable damages and the deteriorating diplomatic relationship between the two countries in recent years.
Sheng Mingshi noted that after the cable-cutting incident, Lithuania expelled Chinese diplomats knowing that China’s so-called unrestricted warfare or gray zone actions are targeting NATO countries in Eastern Europe. In close cooperation between China and Russia, Russia might take action through Chinese cargo ships or private entities.
Ou Xifu also stated that Lithuania’s expulsion of Chinese diplomats indicates that there must be evidence in hand proving Chinese ships’ deliberate sabotage of the cables, leading to decisive measures being taken.
The Chinese Embassy in Lithuania and the Foreign Ministry did not immediately comment on the expulsion of diplomats last Friday, delaying their response until this afternoon (December 2). The Chinese Foreign Ministry published a statement titled “Remarks by a Foreign Ministry Spokesperson” in response to the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ demand for Chinese diplomatic personnel to leave the country by a specified deadline. The article stated that “China strongly condemns and firmly opposes such provocative acts by the Chinese side.” China also mentioned Lithuania’s stance on the Taiwan issue, stating that it reserves the right to take countermeasures.