As China’s economy continues to decline, the number of human rights protests is on the rise. Despite the Chinese Communist Party’s tight control over information, data from the overseas monitoring organization “Freedom House” shows that dissent cases in the second quarter increased by 18%, with many being related to economic issues. Experts believe that even the middle class taking to the streets for rights protection indicates the severity of the economic situation, with people reaching their breaking point, which may ultimately lead to the collapse of the CCP regime.
According to data recorded by the China Dissent Monitor (CDM) of the U.S. non-profit organization Freedom House, dissent cases in the second quarter increased by 18% compared to the same period last year. Most of these events are linked to economic problems. China’s economy is entering a period of stagnation not seen in forty years, with factors such as the real estate crisis, the trade war with the U.S., crackdowns on private enterprises, and the high cost of epidemic lockdowns impacting growth.
In the second quarter of 2024, CDM recorded 805 dissent events, showing an 18% increase from the same period in 2023. The majority of events were labor-related (44%) and housing-related (21%) protests. Guangdong had the highest number of protests (13%), followed by Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Zhejiang. Cities like Shenzhen, Xi’an, and Sanya saw more protests over economic grievances. Many other highly ranked cities were also located in Guangdong Province.
The report indicates that since data collection began in June 2022, CDM has recorded 6,300 dissent cases, including 228 protests related to forced relocations and land expropriation in rural areas, as well as 91 protests involving taxi drivers. Over 2,800 protests were related to the distressed real estate industry.
Although official censorship has intensified, the recorded protests continue to increase. The statistics for June skyrocketed to a record high, partly due to a new method of sourcing protest information.
Dissent activities by property owners and construction workers make up 44% of all dissent cases recorded in over 370 provincial cities in the China Dissent Monitor database. Among the top two real estate companies with the most events were Country Garden and Evergrande, with 106 events related to Country Garden and at least 71 events associated with Evergrande, both involving debt issues.
The report does not reflect the CCP’s stance on these events but underscores the economic challenges facing the ruling Communist Party, which could evolve into broader governance issues.
For a long time, the CCP has relied on increasing social control and internet censorship to maintain stability amidst protests. Demonstrations by the public have often been small-scale and isolated, with protesters rarely directing their anger towards CCP leaders. However, in the end of 2022 during the Blank Paper Movement against lockdowns, rare slogans like “Down with the Communist Party, Down with Xi Jinping” were heard.
Economic protests are typically driven by dissatisfaction over financial losses, such as unfinished real estate projects, sudden business closures, or the inability to pay wages.
It’s unclear if the “Freedom House” data includes some well-known political protests, such as the Peng Zaizhu anti-Communist protest at the Beijing Sihai Bridge in 2022 and the Blank Paper Movement of the same year. In late July this year, Hunan youth Fang Yirong also displayed anti-Communist slogans.
Zeng Jianyuan, Chairman of the Taiwan Chinese Democratic Academy Association, told Dajiyuan that historically, protest groups have mainly been ordinary laborers who are easily exploited by their employers. However, the current situation in mainland China is unique as even the middle class, including capitalists, are now protesting, highlighting the severity of the economic situation.
He stated that protests in mainland China have a specific characteristic where as long as they don’t involve politics, the authorities can tolerate them. However, economic issues can touch on the ideological foundation of the Communist Party and affect social stability, even the stability of the regime. While political demands may not surface during these protest activities, they can still serve as outlets for discontent.
Due to serious errors by Xi Jinping, a new Cold War relationship has developed between the CCP regime and the U.S., leading to China being encircled. In the past decade, China’s economy has suddenly declined, severely undermining the legitimacy of the regime based on economic development. Even under stringent control, the fact that people are still standing up is a significant warning of major crises ahead.
“If the people are pushed to their limits of livelihood, the legitimacy of CCP rule – built on economic development and nationalism – will be greatly weakened. Combining international pressure with domestic opposition will force different voices within the CCP to emerge, triggering progress in China as a whole.”
Wu Sezhi, a researcher at the Cross-Strait Policy Association and a consulting committee member of a Taiwanese think tank, told Dajiyuan that the latest report from “Freedom House” highlights significant social and economic troubles in China, with people facing difficulties and having to stand up to fight for their rights.
“Generally speaking, social unrest occurs when people’s tolerance reaches its breaking point.”
Wu pointed out that the CCP’s internal control methods have become stricter, with various data mostly obscured, along with increasing restrictions on so-called foreign forces. It has become increasingly challenging for the international community to observe the real situation of domestic protests in China. Despite limitations, a noticeable increase in dissent cases is visible, indicating the true scale is likely larger.
He believes that the CCP has typically suppressed and blocked dissent events, then used other methods to ease public or social backlash. However, the CCP now has fewer tools at its disposal, especially with severe financial issues. It is unlikely that the CCP can improve the economy, provide various subsidies, and maintain stability of its rule.
“This is also why Xi Jinping continuously emphasizes security. This security is about national security externally, but internally, it’s about the security of the regime.”
Wu stated that when Chinese society as a whole is caught in economic distress, the CCP will find it increasingly difficult to control the people’s resistance against the government. Eventually, the CCP may collapse due to social upheaval.