Recently, a report from Russia claimed that there is a big gap between the equipment of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and the US military, and it may not catch up until 2049. On January 22nd, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made a high-profile announcement of the delivery of the 054B frigate to the navy, calling it a crucial equipment for the navy’s transformation and development. However, the CCP’s excessive hype and reliance on frigates are seen as a desperate move that would make it even harder to catch up with the US military.
The PLA Navy is actively imitating and catching up with the US military. Currently, besides the CCP, no other country in the world regards the US military as a target to catch up with. The report from Russia believes that the PLA Navy is pursuing global permanent deployment, expecting to have a large number of aircraft carriers, surface warships, a significant number of naval marines, and landing fleets. Given the current huge gap, it may take until 2049 for the PLA Navy to catch up with the US.
The US military has maintained 11 aircraft carriers for a long time, which should be a key indicator that the CCP is trying to catch up with. If the Fujian-class aircraft carrier is commissioned in 2026 or 2027, and the CCP adds a new aircraft carrier every two years, by 2049, they could possibly have a total of 11 aircraft carriers as well.
While it’s theoretically possible for the CCP to start building a new aircraft carrier every two years, it is challenging. China’s economy is slowing down or facing recession, and the space for the continuous significant increase in military spending by the CCP is limited. The aggressive construction of aircraft carriers will heavily undermine the costs of other new equipment. The PLA Air Force and Rocket Force are also expanding new equipment, such as J-20 and J-35 fighters, Dongfeng-26B, Dongfeng-31, Dongfeng-41 missiles, and newly developed nuclear warheads. It is not easy for the Navy to grab more military spending from other services.
If the funding for the PLA Navy does not increase unnecessarily, and they continue to prioritize building aircraft carriers, it will be challenging to rapidly increase other surface warships and submarines, such as the 075 and 076 amphibious assault ships, 055 and 052D destroyers, nuclear-powered submarines, etc. With each new aircraft carrier, at least 5,000 additional crew members will be needed, along with additional maintenance facilities, dozens of shipborne aircraft, escort warships, and submarines, with high costs. As the number of aircraft carriers increases, operational costs will skyrocket.
If the PLA Navy has 4 to 5 aircraft carrier fleets, they will face the dilemma of maintaining the current fleet size and continuing to build new ships. The Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers with ski-jump decks will likely be retired. The Russian report may be intentionally reminding the United States that the CCP is the real competitor, not Russia. This report seems to be a way of pushing the CCP towards the forefront of confrontation.
On January 22nd, the CCP promoted the delivery of the new 054B frigate to the Navy, which serves as a footnote to the Russian report.
The 054B frigate is an improved model of the 054A frigate, and the CCP claims that the 054B is a new generation of frigate and an important equipment for the navy’s transformation and development. Is the 054B frigate really that important?
The PLA Navy currently has 8 Type 055 destroyers, 25 Type 052D destroyers, along with the previously trialed 6 Type 052C destroyers, 4 Type 052(B) destroyers, 3 Type 051B/C destroyers, and 4 imported Sovremenny-class destroyers, totaling around 50 ships. The latest Type 055 destroyers have 4 under construction, the Type 052D destroyers have 6 under construction. However, it is estimated that the Sovremenny-class destroyers, Type 051B/C, and Type 052(B) destroyers will be gradually phased out, making it difficult to rapidly increase the number of destroyers in the short term.
These destroyers are roughly evenly distributed in three regions of the PLA—North, East, and South—with approximately 16 to 18 ships in each region. If half of these vessels are able to operate at sea, the number would be in single digits. The urgent need for the 054B frigate to enter service is partially to compensate for the shortage of destroyers, but it will be challenging for it to help the PLA Navy truly transition to oceanic operations.
The PLA Navy currently has 40 Type 054A frigates, which are often deployed beyond the first island chain and integrated into aircraft carrier task forces. When combined with destroyers, the total number should be around 90, surpassing the number of US destroyers and cruisers. In addition to smaller ships like the Type 056A, the PLA Navy is considered to have one of the largest fleets in the world.
The US Navy has 74 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, 3 Zumwalt-class destroyers, and 9 Ticonderoga-class cruisers, totaling 86 ships. Among these warships, the early Arleigh Burke-class destroyers have a tonnage of less than 9,000 tons, while the rest are nearly 10,000 tons; the Zumwalt-class destroyers have a displacement of 15,000 tons. While 10 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are under construction, the 9 Ticonderoga-class cruisers will be retired, and the overall number is not likely to increase rapidly in the short term.
The number and quality of destroyers in the PLA Navy are significantly inferior to the US Navy. The Type 052C, Type 052(B), and Type 051B/C destroyers are all failed trial products, while the Sovremenny-class destroyers are outdated. Currently, the main vessels capable of escorting aircraft carriers are the 8 Type 055 destroyers and 25 Type 052D destroyers, totaling 33 ships.
The Type 052D is currently the main battle destroyer of the PLA Navy, with a displacement of 7,500 tons and a vertical launch system of 64 cells. US destroyers have vertical launch systems with 90 to 96 cells. The Type 052D from the PLA Navy lags significantly in radar systems, combat systems, and is particularly weak in air defense and anti-submarine capabilities.
The quantity and quality of PLA Navy destroyers are far from matching those of the US military. Therefore, the CCP has to play with the numbers to make up for the deficiencies. The 4,000-ton Type 054A frigate has repeatedly been included in aircraft carrier escort fleets and has been deployed beyond the first island chain. However, it is challenging to replace destroyers with frigates, and the Type 054A frigates are used more as a stopgap measure.
The first Type 054A frigate entered service in 2008, just 17 years ago; with the introduction of the Type 054B, the Type 054A frigates may gradually phase out. The CCP claims that the Type 054 is the first generation, the Type 054A is the second generation, and the Type 054B is the third generation, effectively admitting that the Type 054A is not sufficiently modern.
The Type 054 frigates were copied from the French La Fayette-class frigates, armed with 8 YJ-83 anti-ship missiles and a 100mm caliber naval gun, but with no vertical launch system, and only 2 were trial-produced.
The Type 054A began to use a 32-cell vertical launch system but could only carry Hongqi-16 medium-range surface-to-air missiles and anti-submarine rockets. The larger YJ-83 anti-ship missiles are still mounted on the deck, the caliber of the naval gun has been reduced from 100mm to 76mm, and the radar system initially plagiarized from Russia.
The Type 054A frigate has inherent flaws, and the CCP has been trying to improve it. The anti-submarine towed sonar was installed after building 16 ships, and the radar and antennas were upgraded after building 26 ships. Currently, with 40 ships in service and 6 under construction, the naval gun has been restored to a 100mm caliber, and the Type 054B has been introduced.
Claimed as a new generation frigate, the Type 054B suggests that the Type 054A frigates may gradually be replaced, especially those that were early in service with noticeably limited performance. With a service life of just over a decade, the Type 054A frigates are likely to be phased out soon, possibly be transferred to the Chinese Coast Guard.
The Type 054A frigate seems to be another short-lived vessel in the Chinese navy, representing a transient product of the PLA Navy’s unilateral pursuit of the quantity of warships. The construction cost of the Type 054A frigate is lower than that of destroyers, but estimated to be at least $350 million in 2015, with an average of 3 to 4 ships entering service annually, corruption may be a significant driving force behind it.
The first ship of the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, USS Arleigh Burke, was commissioned in 1991 and is still in service, demonstrating outstanding performance in combat, such as shooting down at least 6 ballistic missiles launched by Iran towards Israel in the Middle East region in April 2024. After 33 years of service, the ships of the US Navy are still performing well in real combat situations. In contrast, Chinese warships may become unusable after just over a decade of service due to the rapid rate of phasing out, making it even harder for China to catch up with the US, fulfilling the corrupt needs within the Chinese military.
The CCP’s media boasts that the Type 054 frigate platform has undergone three technological iterations in a row over 20 years. There is likely no other major vessel globally that has undergone three technology changes within 20 years. In trying to promote the advanced nature of the Type 054B, CCP media inadvertently revealed that the current Type 054A technology is not as advanced as claimed.
The CCP claims that the displacement of the Type 054B frigate is around 5,000 tons, an increase in tonnage allowing for more weapon systems and stronger combat capabilities, turning it from a singular purpose frigate into a multi-purpose frigate. This is an admission that the current Type 054A is limited in performance and functionality.
The CCP has also directed some individuals to boast on social media, claiming that the overall performance of the Type 054B frigate is superior worldwide. However, the Type 054B is still lagging behind in at least one crucial indicator.
Despite the increase in displacement and engine output, the maximum speed of the Type 054B frigate seems to be stuck at 28 knots. The Shandong and Fujian aircraft carriers are claimed to have a speed of 31 knots, the Type 052D destroyer 31 knots, and the Type 055 destroyer 30 knots, while the Type 054A frigate often lags behind in fleet operations. While the tonnage of the Type 054B is larger and carries more equipment, the increased engine power has not been sufficient to increase its speed.
Japan’s newest Escort Ship, with a full-load displacement of 5,500 tons, shares a similar tonnage category with the Type 054B frigate, but with an engine total power of approximately 52,200 kilowatts, about 1.76 times that of the Type 054B frigate, capable of speeds exceeding 30 knots. The Type 054B frigate remains behind in power systems, making it likely to have the lowest total power output among similar warships from other countries. One can only imagine the power systems of other Chinese warships are also lacking.
While the tonnage of the Type 054B frigate has increased, it still retains a 32-cell vertical launch system to accommodate a range of equipment, occupying more space in the ship. The vertical launch system continues to carry Hongqi-16 surface-to-air missiles and anti-submarine rockets, but cannot accommodate larger anti-ship or ground-attack missiles due to their size, highlighting a gap compared to patrol ships or frigates from other countries.
The Type 054B frigate’s vertical launch system seems to still not accommodate the Hongqi-9 surface-to-air missile and continues to carry Hongqi-16 missiles, failing to significantly enhance air defense capabilities. The Hongqi-16 is considered a lower-tier version of the Hongqi-9, which is a replica of the S-300 missile system. Iran’s S-300 system was destroyed twice by Israel.
While the caliber of the naval gun on the Type 054B frigate has increased, it is primarily for self-defense at sea, with limited range for ground attacks. The anti-ship missiles on the deck of the Type 054B could possibly switch from the YJ-83 to the YJ-12 missile, likely being used as missile boats beyond the first island chain, but their speed is inadequate. As for the anti-submarine capabilities boasted by the CCP, they are likely still far behind those of the US and its allies.
The US Navy does not have smaller tonnage patrol ships or frigates because the demands of their global deployment missions require nearly all 10,000-ton destroyers or cruisers, capable of both escorting aircraft carriers and conducting independent long-range operations. The US Navy also operates 26 Littoral Combat Ships, with a top speed of up to 44 knots, currently deployed in the Western Pacific region.
Most developed countries have their patrol ships or frigates mainly for nearshore defense, with some capable of participating in long-range operations, but they primarily focus on domestic defense and maintain limited global deployment capabilities. Most developed countries, along with the US, are allies and cooperate closely with the US military to respond to emergencies.
As adversaries of the US and its allies, the CCP is eager to expand its ambitions, establishing a massive navy that lacks sufficient destroyers for long-range combat operations, only able to fill the gap with Type 054A frigates. As the Type 054A frigates become obsolete, the CCP introduces the Type 054B, yet their long-range combat capabilities are not significantly enhanced. The CCP insists on labeling it as essential equipment for the navy’s transformation, revealing a sense of helplessness.
The CCP’s ambitions outweigh its capabilities, leading to excessive boasting. Deception across the CCP hierarchy is likely more about corruption and making money from new projects, ultimately risking self-destruction in an arms race.
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