On August 27th to 29th, American President Biden’s national security advisor Sullivan visited China for a new round of strategic communication between the US and China, paving the way for a future leadership meeting. Experts suggest that the Biden administration should be cautious in dealing with the Chinese Communist Party during the November US election period, refrain from provocations, and avoid escalating tensions with Taiwan. Understanding the political dynamics within the CCP is crucial, and the Biden-Xi summit could serve as an effective means of engagement.
Sullivan arrived in Beijing on the afternoon of August 27th and held a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a resort on the outskirts of Beijing. Following the meeting, statements issued by the White House and the Chinese Foreign Ministry revealed significant differences between the two sides on issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and trade. Sullivan is expected to meet more senior Chinese officials during this visit, marking the first time in 8 years that a White House national security advisor has visited China.
After the meeting with Wang Yi, Sullivan mentioned that he would engage in in-depth discussions with the Chinese side on a wide range of issues, focusing on areas of consensus and “the need for effective management” of disagreements.
Professor Chen Bingda of the Diplomacy Department at National Chengchi University stated that discussions during this visit would likely continue on topics that have already been touched upon in previous rounds of negotiations. While both sides have not changed their policies towards each other, stabilizing US-China relations post-election is crucial.
The Taiwan issue is considered a significant topic for Sullivan’s visit, being a key factor affecting the relationship between the two countries. The CCP’s continuous harassment of Taiwan and signs of potential military aggression are concerning, with the US being Taiwan’s most crucial supporter and arms supplier.
According to US statements, Sullivan emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait during the meeting. In contrast, the Chinese statement reiterated their stance on seeking reunification with Taiwan and demanded the US to cease arming Taiwan.
Expert Wang He believes that Sullivan’s visit aims at strategic communication and dialogue with Wang Yi, primarily for the US to gather intelligence amid growing concerns over China’s intentions. By dispatching Sullivan, the Biden administration seeks to deter any reckless actions by the CCP in the final months of its tenure.
The US and the Philippines share a military alliance, with China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea being perceived as a test of the US’s response threshold. By understanding US reactions in specific scenarios, China can gauge the extent to which the US would intervene in Taiwan-related issues.
Sullivan reiterated the US commitment to defending Indo-Pacific allies during meetings and expressed concern over China’s destabilizing actions against the Philippines in the South China Sea. Recent clashes between Chinese coast guard and Philippine vessels have further heightened tensions in the region.
Regarding the South China Sea issue, China reaffirmed its sovereignty over the islands and maritime rights, warning the US against using bilateral treaties to undermine its territorial integrity and supporting Philippine encroachments.
In response, Sullivan stressed the importance of regular and ongoing military communication between both sides during the meeting. Plans for a future command-level conference were also discussed to prevent conflicts in specific regions like the Taiwan Strait.
The period leading up to the US election serves as a rare opportunity for the CCP to challenge Taiwan. Summertime is not suitable for military actions due to the typhoon season, but the winter and spring periods present strategic openings for potential CCP offensives against Taiwan.
Sullivan’s visit coincides with the final months of Biden’s presidency, emphasizing diplomatic engagement with China. The communications and dialogues during this visit play a crucial role in maintaining stability in US-China relations.
Both sides engaged in frank and substantive discussions on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues, including the Middle East, the Ukraine conflict, North Korea, Myanmar, economic and trade matters, fentanyl issues, and human rights. However, discrepancies in narratives persist.
Professor Chen Bingda remarked that the actual outcomes of these talks remain uncertain, portraying them more as statements of positions rather than genuine efforts to understand and respect each other’s viewpoints. Such strategic communications, though beneficial for the stability of US-China relations, fall short of fostering mutual understanding and respect.
Sullivan’s visit to China near the end of Biden’s presidency sets the stage for further diplomatic dialogues with the CCP. Statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry indicated discussions about recent interactions at the leadership level between the two nations, hinting at a potential upcoming leadership-level call between the US and Chinese leaders.
In preparation for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by Peru in November and the G20 summit in Brazil, possible sideline meetings between US and Chinese leaders might take place during these events, further enhancing bilateral communication and understanding.